Posted on 10/30/2020 1:44:32 PM PDT by edwinland
Some great news for a Friday afternoon.
The Democrats' enormous lead on vote by mail (VBM) has been whittled down to nearly nothing by Republicans crushing the in person early vote (IPEV)
As of this morning, the D overall lead in all early votes (IPEV plus VBM) was 164,000, down from 204,000 the day before and 254,000 the day before that.
As of now it is 120,602.
Trump won Florida in 2016 despite D's having a 96,000 lead in all early votes by the morning of the election.
There are still a few more hours today and a couple more days and the trend is our friend.
"Vote totals (IPEV + VBM)"
look for:
D-R gap (raw): 120602
that number is updated every 20 minutes.
These results show that Democrat physical turnout is getting crushed by COVID fears, but that’s not slowing down Republican turnout.
That may be why Democrats are starting to tell people it IS safe to vote.
It may also by why they were so focused on getting the courts to allow ballots posted prior to the election date, rather than the earlier deadlines set by state laws. Because they wanted to keep fearmongering right through election day to depress Republican turnout, while continuing to collect Democrat mail ballots.
Now in a lot of States it’s too late to send your ballot, and the republicans don’t seem deterred, so they are switching gears.
I’ll ask the question, could we be burning up votes early because more of our people are deciding to avoid election day?
If so this will even out.
I don’t exactly believe that, but it’s possible.
Any opinion on Rasmussen’s nationwide poll today? Biden 49 Trump 46
Wait, then we are behind 2016 in the early vote. That’s not good.
Ping.
Rasmussen poll: Bummer but his numbers do jump around a bit. And the Trump approval number was good today. 51%. A bit better than Obama’s on this day in 2012
Here’s my opinion, not good but we don’t expect to win the popular vote.
Still, an incumbent at 46% is not good.
And Biden is indeed an awful candidate.
No. There are amazing stats out there that dem women fear the virus 75% and GOP men fear the virus only 25%. The party and gender differences are enormous. And female GOP fearlessness is close to Male GOP fearlessness
“Wait, then we are behind 2016 in the early vote. That’s not good.”
Barely and we’ll probably be about even by the end of today. And at the rate the R’s are outperforming over the past four days we will be way ahead of it by election day. Plus the way we are getting there (R’s win bigly in in-person voting while D’s win bigly in vote by mail) is a very good omen for the day when there is only in-person or nothing.
Don’t Dems need to be +500k in FL before election day in order to have an even shot?
Yes...it is meaningless because it has nothing to do with Florida. National polls are mean nothing...there is no national vote...
You’re mixing approval rating and a % in a “national” poll. Traditionally, incumbents who are at 46% or below in APPROVAL rating (not national rating) are challenged in re-election. He is at 51% today (52% last two days) so he’s in good shape. the 49%-46% is a “national” poll...which is meaningless for a state by state election.
I read that analysis too. I don’t know. But being better than 2016 will make me sleep a lot better.
I’ve watched my share of 7 decades of politics. When the incumbent is below 50% in the election polls, is usually a sign undecideds disapprove and will break for the challenger.
I acknowledge the higher national approval number is contrary to that, and a more positive sign.
I’m a little concerned that on every conservative show now, all our hopes are riding only on the Trafalgar poll in each state.
D-R gap (raw): 117,595 and falling.
Down 3,000 since I put up this post.
Rass had Trump ahead by 3 points 2 days ago. There is no tangible reason for a 6 point swing. Trump held at 51 so that is probably the more important number.
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