Posted on 10/30/2020 9:10:41 AM PDT by RandFan
Although state polls were wrong or within margin of error in 2016, in 2018, they were spot on with the house.
There is a reason polls do better with congressional elections than presidential ones.
Polls contact people who are willing to talk to them.
That is usually the most politically active folks who are far more likely to vote in Congressional elections.
It is apples and oranges—that is why many of the huge poll blunders in history have been in Presidential races.
The demographics of the Old North State have changed, and not for the better. It’s similar to what has happened or is happening to other formerly solid (at least for Presidential vote) red states.
There has been a lot of movement into the state from blue states, and while I know some data suggest that in Texas voters who have moved in from out of state voted heavily in favor of and saved Ted Cruz in 2018, I think on balance this type of movement has been politically negative for North Carolina.
Also, the net pro-Democrat immigrant population has grown rapidly in NC.
Multiple urban spots and surrounding left leaning suburbs combine to give Democrats a large floor of support.
I doubt we’ll see anything like how GWB carried the state by 13 points as recently as 2004 ever again. And that’s not praise for GWB, as he or his ilk would do no better in states like NC today than President Trump.
If North Carolina is good then I expect the GOP to keep the Senate.
If anybody could drag sorry-a$$ Tillis across the line, Trump could do it.
Good grief, Tillis is running against a liar and an admitted adulterer.
I live in NC and I wouLd assume 2% REALLY MEANS 5%. What I am really concerned about is the Senate race. I think Tillis will win, but after Schumer pouring $47 million into the state, it may be close.
Hi LS — sorry cause I know you’re busy.
When you say “Blacks down by 3% from 2016”
does that mean (example, fictitious numbers)
2016: Blacks are 20% of vote
2020: Blacks are 19.5% of vote (3% fewer votes, among blacks)
OR
2016: Blacks are 20% of vote
2017: Blacks are 17% of vote (Blacks are 3% less among ALL votes)
Thanks!
I doubt we will hear one single exit poll from a major media outlet this year. If we don't that's a statement in itself.
Also, I wonder how many of the approximately 75 million mailed ballots received thus far will be tossed for incompleteness or inaccuracies? I have heard about 40 million of them were sent unsolicited.
I live in NC, but it is a second home, and I am registered in FL. I voted absentee. But, I have received mail ballot “applications” in NC.
I will be so happy if we win on Tuesday. Over the moon. Rejoicing.
But the fact that millions of Americans vote for such an obvious corrupt man like Biden, obviously incapacitated, with such horrible positions on so many things, is a huge downer.
I can even understand, although I don’t agree, some don’t vote or will vote third party. Strongly disagree but I still see them as good just inconsistent Americans.
But those who vote for Biden? It is beyond depressing. He is SO BAD.
If he does squeek through, NC Republicans are going to have to ditch him before 2026.
I don't see how he makes it across the finish line during the midterm election of Pence's first term.
Agreed...Tillis does suck. And I agree he needs to find a new line of work before 2026.
But knowing his type...he wont.
Brexit architect Nigel Farage: Mainstream media using polls to suppress Trump turnout!
“I think that polling is often used by the establishment as a way of disincentivizing the other side to go out and vote,” said Farage.
Updated: October 30, 2020 - 10:40am
Mainstream media polls showing Joe Biden with a wide lead are failing to accurately gauge support for President Trump and are being used to suppress Trump voter turnout, according to Brexit architect Nigel Farage.
Farage, the British politician who led an underdog movement to remove the United Kingdom from the European Union, said he believes Trump will win despite current polls — just like in 2016 — suggesting otherwise.
“I think that polling is often used by the establishment as a way of disincentivizing the other side to go out and vote,” Farage said on “Just the News AM” television show. “The morning of Brexit, there was a poll released that said Remain [in the E.U.] were 10 points ahead. And it was done, very simply, to say to potential ‘Leave’ voters, ‘Do you know what, if it’s raining, don’t bother to get down to the local school and vote, because you’re gonna lose anyway?’
Farage said he was “struck” with American polls because of what he called “tiny” sample sizes generating margins of error often between 3% to 4%.
“Come on, you know, oh, in Florida, Biden’s half a percent ahead,” Farage said. “It’s ridiculous, because the margin of error is several times bigger than that.”
Within the mainstream media in recent decades, voter suppression is typically cited by Democrats who say Republicans aim to keep progressive voters from turning out. He said he “absolutely” believes that polls this year are meant to suppress Republican turnout.
I Don’t Make Predictions, But...
Townhall ^ | 10/30/2020 | Larry O’Connor
First, let’s understand what we are looking to achieve this Tuesday. This is all about 270 electoral college votes, nothing else. You know that. You’re smart. You don’t read Vox. But, I just wanted to reiterate... the national popular vote is literally meaningless, and by extension, national popular opinion polls that reflect the national presidential preference is absolutely meaningless. So ignore it.
We are about to engage in 51 elections—one in each state and the District of Columbia. The winner of those elections will determine the distribution of electors for the electoral college. The candidate who achieves 270 electoral votes will be president for the next four years.
Excerpt:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3899813/posts
The last one.
If Trump wins NC, he probably wins the election, just based on general trends.
Biden is barnstorming Pennsylvania. My guess is his internal polls show him behind.
Biden is adding appearances in Minnesota. My guess is his internal polls show MN too close for comfort.
The idea that you can convince folks not to vote based on polls showing their candidate way behind has not had a great track record (2016, obviously).
It is equally likely to convince Democrats (who actually _believe_ the mass media lies) that their candidate has it made so there is no point in wasting their time voting.
This video argues that the polls just have awful methodology that gets them in deep trouble:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be
In the “Age of Trump” sloppy polling means that Trump voters are missed.
Polls are horrible at measuring turnout, of course—and that is where the Trump campaign really shows the right stuff.
There is no science without probability. Probability is not the same thing as guessing.
Florida’s doing well.
Seems democrats aren’t FOR Biden as much as they’re suppose to be against Trump - - and lots of ‘em don’t hate Trump as much as liberal thugs in DC and ‘the press’ thought they did...
So, lots of Florida dems are sitting home.
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