Posted on 10/29/2020 11:07:52 PM PDT by RandFan
Only ones accurately measuring the hidden Trump vote. Almost all the rest are phony suppression polls that oversample Democrats by +8-12 and use adults or registered voters, not likely voters. Fox is one of the biggest offenders, because it builds drama and hooks viewers. Plus Murdoch’s spawn an Paul Ryan are anti-Trump @$$holes.
The thing about Trafalgar is that Admiral Nelson won the battle but he died in it.
Why is it that nobody believes the polls when their guy is behind but they suddenly become trustworthy when he’s ahead?
Because of the internals of the poll and the track record.
I do not think Trafalgar is completely accurate. They have a good record from 2016 but, they were under estimating the crossover vote for Trump this time. He is, I think further a head than they think he is.
Brian Schwartz
@schwartzbCNBC
“Spoke to someone familiar with the Trump camps polling. With a few days left, these are some of the states they are confident in: FL, AZ, NC, Maine 2nd district, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Texas. Not confident: Michigan.
Public polls show they’re down in most of these states.”
The 2016 Trafalgar poll electoral college final call was only off by TWO votes. Find me another poll that came anywhere near that.
Thank you Cathi, most interesting.
There seems to be a surge in MI , maybe they’re not seeing it yet?
Not long now..
History
Things are still close in Michigan so they are not “confident” yet.
But, frankly everything has been moving in their direction.
The left is in a pure panic over Florida.
It’s really an eye opener to read leftwing twitter sites and see their take on things. Many are very surprised and very bitter that Hispanic, especially Cuban, voters are turning out for Trump in Florida.
Microbe
Matthew Isbell
Jack-o-lantern
@mcimaps
Partisan turnout among Florida’s Hispanic voters is showing a 6.9% GOP advantage. While Democrats still lead in Hispanic votes cast, their margin isn’t as big as it is with registration.
Biggest issue: Miami-Dade’s 9.4% GOP turnout advantage. Cuban turnout is strong #flapol
And, Arizona....
Panic! MSNBC Only Finds One Biden Voter Out of 50 in Arizona
This is Andrea Mitchell, NBC News, Washington, on MSNBC this afternoon, a portion of her report with correspondent Vaughn Hillyard about early voting in Arizona.
HILLYARD: It is stunning and worth noting that the president going up to the rural part of the state where there’s a much larger population base — is worth noting. I stopped up there yesterday, into a couple towns — Lake Havasu, Kingman, Bullhead City. I went to one early voting location, and one, only one person out of 50 said they were voting for Joe Biden!
I wonder about the fleeing Democrats. We complain about them coming to another state and turning it blue, but shouldn’t the reverse happen too? What if Minnesota and Michigan are not as leftist as they were because they have fewer leftist? What if, demographically, they’ve changed?
Michigan usually has been blue. It was quite an upset for Trump to flip it in 2016. He is still working it hard and will be there again tomorrow.
He must be getting a little more encouraged about that region because after he got strong donations after the last speech he ordered a large “ad” buy for Minnesota which many thought he had already written off.
Big whoop. Once I picked the exact final score of the UGA-Alabama football game, that doesn'r make me an expert in football.
I remember when people like Clinton's old toe sucking friend Dick Morris, or Karl "The Magnificient Bastard" Rove used to make predictions and it was like their words were coming out of a burning bush. Then all of a sudden they turned out to be fallible and they turned to FReeper dust.
I'll believe the polls that start coming out on 4 November and maybe even those won't be accurate until they finally poll the Supreme Court.
Hispanics admire and respect the alpha male. I cannot tell you the number of Hispanics that I have spoken to here in the Central Valley that are all in for Trump. I believe that President Trump will receive 40% of the Hispanic vote. The Telemundo poll after the first debate telegraphed this trend.
Bernie voters are not turning out for Biden. Picking Kamala Harris was a move to get them motivated to vote. It did not work.
Funny how the “polls” are saying that Texas is a toss up. Funny that no one are here are talking about it. I assume because intelligent folks know its total BS. If it was a toss up Biden would be camping here. Instead he is MN where the rats won in 2016. I have not seen the real numbers in MN but would like to know.
Minnesota does not have actual in person early voting so all of it has been absentee ballot so far and D’s have been instructed to use them. R’s have been told to vote in person on election day.
So you can’t read too much into the current vote. The polls average 4.7% Biden right now.
In DFL strongholds such as Hennepin and Ramsey counties, more than 40 percent of registered voters have already cast a ballot. That compares to about 20 percent of voters in Republican strongholds such as Wright and Sherburne counties.
Limbaugh called Hillyard’s report “a random act of journalism”, especially for MSNBC & on Mitchell’s show. Made me LOL...
I’ve actually wondered if he is still employed...:-) I don’t think anyone at MSNBC could have expected that.
I dont believe this one either.
Trump is more ahead.
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