Posted on 10/29/2020 6:24:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I recently argued that the toss-up states may be different from what media and pollsters present and what you think.
Based my view from the 2016 results, I have the race at 231 electoral votes for President Trump, 183 electoral votes for Mr. Biden, and 124 electoral votes as toss-ups. This implies that there are several paths to 270 electoral votes for a Trump victory.
The Blue Wall Falls Again
If, as in the last time, President Trump sweeps Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he will have 277 electoral votes. This is without Trump carrying Florida or blue wall holdout Minnesota. In fact, if President Trump were to win Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he would win with 271 electoral votes. This is without Trump carrying Florida or Michigan.
The South Also Rises
If, as it appears likely today, President Trump wins Florida again, then a win in Virginia gives him 273 electoral votes. Now, I know you have been told that Virginia is blue forever, but as I pointed out previously in the link above, Georgia voted more conservative in 2016 than Virginia voting for leftist candidates in 2016. In the media Georgia is always now a potential swing state, and Virginia is always gone blue forever. Maybe Virginia is gone forever, but the conservative voters in Virginia have been called smelly Walmart people, deplorables, and chumps. They have also been told in western Virginia that their coal-based jobs will be gone forever. Maybe they will just take being called out over and over, or maybe the people in the coal areas of western Virginia, the military families of southeastern Virginia, the people in the peanut country of southern Virginia, the religious people throughout Virginia, and the Virginians who enjoy an open and record-setting economy will blow up in the face
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The good news is Bidens lead in the polls is falling, but the bad news is he’s still ahead of where Hillary was at this point in 2016....
Trump will win every state he won in 2016 , plus he will win Minnesota and Nevada.
Do not be surprised if he wins New York.
RE: Do not be surprised if he wins New York.
If this happens, I will also see Unicorns and Pigs flying.
IKR!!
Ultimately, there are many paths for Trump and few if any for Biden.
We need the Senate and the House, too.
AZ is in the 231. It’s not rock solid.
He was raised Catholic "lite" but he knows what's right and wrong using his own conscience....not religion.
I travel a fair amount around Colorado. I have literally been from top to bottom, end to end - having driven in/out of the State to the north, south, east and west. Every place I go that is not Denver seems to really be *not* Denver and resentful and disdainful of Denver to varying degrees. We'll see. There is tremendous support for President Trump out in "real" Colorado. Maybe even enough to overcome the fools in Denver.
Yes I would trade Trump just getting to 270 and get control of the House, over a blowout, and Nancy still as a speaker. I did read this AM, Cal Cunningham..aka serial adulterer is about done in NC. The Dems NEEDED him to win to flip the Senate. That is unlikely now. On the ground in NC the Trump signs and enthusiasm are gigantic. I think like Yamamoto said on December 7th, 1941...”I am afraid we have woken a sleeping giant and filled him with great resolve”. The red wave coming fellas.
BIG IF, but it would mean an EV Blowout with a pre-3am 11/4/20 call and a close match to 1984 Reagan-v-Mondale. So while I can dream, those odds would already be showing it in the polls.
Me, I'm seeing FL & NH as harbingers on Election Night. If they go 'Red' early like by 2300 (I HATE THE ACCEPTANCE OF RED), then I will be able to breath! NC & PA will not be called for a day at the least unless it is a real blowout!
Yea like Ga and Texas is going to flip. Turn off the TV buckaroo. It’s over and never really was. The Democrats are the Cleveland Browns, always getting fitted for their Super Bowl rings BEFORE the Season. The Coup de grace was the explosive 3rd quarter growth numbers. The Hunter Biden scandal was good for shaving a point or 2 of the Kelptocrat Methuselahs totals in the popular vote if you want that Pyrrhic victory. I think this weekend Trump has to have the National Guards at standby, we are about to see some quality insurrection coming as leftist and left of centers refuse the election results and want the counting to go on endlessly.
A similar story in most states. Those who live in urban squalor outnumber the decent folks out in the hinterlands. Look at a red/blue map of New York state.
Bear in mind that many Democrats won’t vote day of. So, they’ve pretty much shot their load. Expect about 18% of Democrats to vote on 11/3. Expect about 61% of Republicans on 11/3. If they’re not ahead by 50% in each state, they’ve lost.
Not a chance. They released a poll in Michigan to show Biden topping Trump by 10 points. They literally had Biden winning because of the Coronavirus issue 92-2. That’s not polling. That’s propaganda.
Do not be surprised if he wins New York.>>>>
I would keep an eye on the Manhattan wards to indicate the displaced residents and college students voting results. could be interesting.
OK... let's not get carried away here.
No he isn’t. He is way behind where Hillary was
Dumb article. Only a couple of these scenarios are at all plausible.
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