Florida Early Vote update, 10/28/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/28/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Florida Update:

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 620,908

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 374,996

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 245,912

[SpeedyInTexas]

Rs in Southeast Florida

Palm - 27.37%
Broward - 21.33%
Miami - 31.31%

[janetjanet998]

with only one more update left until this time stamp might be behind yesterdays pace though..

I posted this in yesterdays thread

---

10:51 eastern

EV Rep +13,320
Mail Dem +1398

net Rep +11,922

[CatOwner]

"... I predict student turnout from UNLV and UNReno will be down 30% on election day ..."

It would be funny as hell if the lockdown orders from the universities and DEM governors screwed over their college student vote totals.

[LS]

But interesting that even in Miami Dade & Palm Beach Rs have taken the lead. Suggests those indies are about to move as well.

[LS]

But that is precisely what is happening. Already in NC 18-24 vote is down by over a point-—and my theory is that they should be UP 30% to compensate for closed/semi-closed campuses on election day.

[Lazamataz]

Hey bud. Could you create a nice little summary of what states we can expect to see as wins and which as losses, in the battlegrounds and the thoughts on why?

I’d love a nice one-stop-shop. If it’s too much work, don’t, but if it’s reasonable, I’d like that a lot.

[wareagle7295]

As far as NC, are the campuses closed on election day specifically for voting?

[IVAXMAN]

DUVAL just flipped to Advantage TRUMP
Been waiting all week :)

[Ravi]

I think it’s time to bite the bullet and look at the view for All votes (IPEV and VBM). Rip the band-aid off - so far no bleeding.

[wfu_deacons]

I am feeling a little more confident about NC.

2020 now: D/R/U 39.2%/30.9%/29.4%
2016 (final numbers after election day): 39.3%/32.9%/27.4%

So the gap after 2016 election day was 6.4%, as of today the gap is 8.3%. The gap is being reduced about 1% per day so I suspect will be below 6.4% at the end of the week. That bodes well for the Reps going into election day.

[SpeedyInTexas]

I mainly look at combined voting.

Its what matters.

[Coop]

Yesterday was about a 59K IPEV gain, yes?

[Ravi]

Yep we saw it coming. Black share of vote down to 20.06%. It was 22.0% in 2016. I predicted high teens at the end of early voting - let’s see if I’m right.

[plushaye]

I was thinking about the Hispanic “bloc”. They’re not really that. In FL, we know that the Cuban-Americans & Venezuelans have now come out heavily for Trump, and many are still registered “D”.

In TX, the NY Times admits, from their own poll, that Biden is showing much weakness with Hispanics there. The fantasy of a blue TX got busted. The TX Hispanics have a lot in common with those in AZ/NV/NM. This Biden weakness will be playing out in AZ and early voting seems to imply this in NV/NM. Again, many Hispanics voting Trump will be registered “D” there as well. That’s what happened in 2016 FL, where a large Dem Hispanic voting surge (which depressed Republican analysts) turned out to be for Trump. We won’t know until ED counting.

[wfu_deacons]

With FL and NC looking pretty good, the election looks like it may be coming down to AZ and PA (maybe WI/MI ???). Does anyone have any data/prognostications on these two states?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Darrell Issa will be returning to Congress.

#CA50 GE:
Issa (R) 51% (+11)
Campa-Najjar (D) 40%
.
Trump 49% (+4)
Biden 45%

@surveyusa/@sdut/@10News, LV, 10/22-26
http://surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=24006771-7dd1-47f4-933c-ad5b78061dcb

[Rumierules]

DUVAL just flipped to Advantage TRUMP
Been waiting all week :)
_____________________________

Excellent. We’re slow here but came around. Still plenty of Rs who can vote.

[Tobias Grimsley]

I personally don’t worry about AZ too much...that might be dumb on my part, but we shall see...

as far as PA is concerned, I just tend to think Trump will outperform vs. 2016 because...
- a net gain of 200k R’s registration since 2016
- Biden’s statements on fracking, oil and gas
- enthusiasm
- Biden getting 10% less around the Philly area vs. Clinton
- Black support for Trump higher vs. 2016
- etc., etc., etc.

[byecomey]

No, sorry, as far as I know I can’t do a better job than McDonald’s ElectProject. Both NC and FL give exceptionally dense data in different ways (FL for being real time, NC for demographics).

[wareagle7295]

I personally don’t worry about AZ too much...that might be dumb on my part, but we shall see... as far as PA is concerned, I just tend to think Trump will outperform vs. 2016 because... - a net gain of 200k R’s registration since 2016 - Biden’s statements on fracking, oil and gas - enthusiasm - Biden getting 10% less around the Philly area vs. Clinton - Black support for Trump higher vs. 2016 - etc., etc., etc.

These are things that we will look back on and say "why did we worry so much?"