I am feeling a little more confident about NC.
2020 now: D/R/U 39.2%/30.9%/29.4%
2016 (final numbers after election day): 39.3%/32.9%/27.4%
So the gap after 2016 election day was 6.4%, as of today the gap is 8.3%. The gap is being reduced about 1% per day so I suspect will be below 6.4% at the end of the week. That bodes well for the Reps going into election day.
Yep we saw it coming. Black share of vote down to 20.06%. It was 22.0% in 2016. I predicted high teens at the end of early voting - let’s see if I’m right.