With FL and NC looking pretty good, the election looks like it may be coming down to AZ and PA (maybe WI/MI ???). Does anyone have any data/prognostications on these two states?
I personally don’t worry about AZ too much...that might be dumb on my part, but we shall see...
as far as PA is concerned, I just tend to think Trump will outperform vs. 2016 because...
- a net gain of 200k R’s registration since 2016
- Biden’s statements on fracking, oil and gas
- enthusiasm
- Biden getting 10% less around the Philly area vs. Clinton
- Black support for Trump higher vs. 2016
- etc., etc., etc.
No, sorry, as far as I know I can’t do a better job than McDonald’s ElectProject. Both NC and FL give exceptionally dense data in different ways (FL for being real time, NC for demographics).