Posted on 10/26/2020 11:43:11 AM PDT by Conserv
How does this relate to early voting? Because we don’t have a lengthy history of good research giving our brains guidance for how to interpret early returns, it’s very easy to see what you want to see. For example, we can look at North Carolina, and see that Democrats have a 10.5-percentage-point lead over Republicans in early voting. That seems great for Democrats.
But we could also contextualize this by noting that at a similar point in 2016, Democrats had a 13.1-percentage-point lead there in early voting. In other words, Democrats are doing worse than they were at this point four years ago (and much worse than they were in 2012). Actually, with a week to go early voting is looking about the same as it did at the end of 2016 (when Democrats had a 9.8-percentage-point lead at the end), and that wasn’t a great year for them. For that matter, African American voters were 22% of the early electorate in 2016; at this point they are 20.5% of the electorate. That’s probably not what we would expect in a Democratic wave year when Republicans are being encouraged to vote on Election Day and Democrats are supposedly avoiding it.
You can see similar stories developing in Florida and Nevada, where you can make a case that things look roughly the same as they did about a week out from Election Day in 2016.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
but the media has to play their little games.
It is all about how many votes the Bolshies have to manufacture after the election.
Correct. EV data has no meaning unless it is presented with specific historical context and apples are being compared to apples.
Yeah ignore the actual voting. /s
Its funny- here in the craphole known as New York, the headlines have been about “long lines” and “long waits” for early voting.
Yet all they did here was squish dozens and dozens of polling places into one. People thought they were going to get their voting “out of the way” this weekend and surprise!!! They never did some simple calculations beforehand.
I was watching some of the 2016 coverage by the networks recently and noticed they took _forever_ to call _Georgia_.
Trump won Georgia by 5 percentage points.
What a joke!
Too late for the Demorat Cash for Clunkers Campaign 2020. They have already pulled forward their prez vote with mail-in ballots. Too bad they didn’t instruct their sheeple to vote for the down ticket races with the same TDS fever. Now they are stuck with wasted ballots as the early in-person voting red tide overwhelms them this week before the red tsunami drowns them on election day. By the end of this week, everyone will see the absolute panic from the DNC. Enjoy your participation trophy leftists.
Weather was a big factor in New York as well.
Sunday was the last nice day we will have for a while—anybody with any common sense would know there would be lines outside and it is not fun to be in those lines when it is cold and/or rainy.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Dems were encouraged to vote early to avoid Antifa voter intimidation at polling places in Republican districts.
Lie to exit pollsters.....................
Did they factor in the unlikeability of both Hillary and Biden?
Lots of dems will vote for Trump or not vote for President but vote for the other tickets. Not voting for Biden is practically a half vote for Trump each.
I watch almost no live TV at all, and haven't for well over five years.
My TV is on when Trump is on TV for rallies and debates, and on presidential election night.
In 2016 I watched FoxNews, simply because I thought they might be the best choice. The guy in charge of making the state calls was delaying on purpose, and that ticked me off.
I'm wondering if there's a better network (or on-line way) to watch this time.
Not having to hear Juan Williams would be an added bonus.
“It is all about how many votes the Bolshies have to manufacture after the election.”
__________________________
And that is why not a single Trumpster should miss voting this time.
>>It wouldn’t be surprising if Dems were encouraged to vote early to avoid Antifa voter intimidation at polling places in Republican districts.<<
I truly hope Antifa tries to intimidate me when I go to vote.
I live in Ga. and in 2016 the media kept trying to say it was going to go for Hillary and yes, they took forever to call it. I KNEW there was no way in heck Hillary would win Georgia.
Saturday was beautiful where i am in the Hudson valley
then again you make a good point- i hope Saturday is cold and miserable from Westchester and points south.
I thought Ed Schultz (may he RIP) gave some of the best coverage of election night 2016. Almost no Trump bashing and called out the decision desk on their delays and shenanigans.
Although, to be fair (unlike the media itself), the vote count in Georgia was coming in incredibly slow. Though it was weird seeing states called for Trump that were much closer than Georgia before Georgia itself was called.
He actually did. It was extraordinary seeing him at least try to be an objective reporter after he left MSNBC.
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