Posted on 10/23/2020 6:57:45 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 569,039
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 141,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 427,517
Paul Singer: Hedge Fund Magnate Is Moving His $41 Billion Firm From N.Y. to Florida
am i understanding this correctly that 666K is the approx
(D-R) lead that would be expected to reproduce Trump’s 1.5 % margin of victory from 2016 ????
“am i understanding this correctly that 666K is the approx
(D-R) lead that would be expected to reproduce Trump’s 1.5 % margin of victory from 2016 ????”
Lets change the subject to percentages instead.
Ds need to have a turnout within 1% of Rs.
Right now with VBM, Ds lead by 4% in turnout 60.7% to 56.4%.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
IPEV, we don’t have that same kind of number because we don’t have a denominator like we have in VBM (which is request count).
We do know the IPEV lead. Which is 46.1% to 35.9% with an R lead. But this isn’t a turnout number. So don’t compare against (60.7% to 56.4%)
We won’t know turnout until the election is over. Of course, we will know the election results then and don’t need to know turnout.
I tried to do some modeling as a predictive forecast. People don’t like it. I understand. 2020 has changed how people vote which makes modeling difficult...
No one talks about fight club.
IPEV R win by day
10/19 - 4k
10/20 - 37k
10/21 - 50k
10/22 - 50k
10/23 - 38k so far
Looks like another 50k win today.
Lets do 60k Saturday and Sunday.
Looks good. A few questions:
1) Are there still R counties that haven’t started IPEV? If so, how much of a difference will they make?
2) How many more days of IPEV are there? Is it every day until Election Day?
3) Any counties really stand out? Good or bad?
1) counties not open, yes, several, they will add up to 60-90K net, more if VBM there erodes. The big ones are Bay and Walton, IPEV not yet open, 180K votes total, heavy red
“2) How many more days of IPEV are there? Is it every day until Election Day?”
I think IPEV the Sunday before election day. Monday I think is just VBM.
In past elections, I believe only some counties are open that last weekend. D counties of course. That could distort the numbers we are tracking.
Someone may have the info for that final weekend handy?
I think IPEV ENDS the Sunday before election day.
In 2016 for example, Ds added to IPEV lead the final weekend by 64k! Again, cause R counties were mostly closed.
11/08/16: DEMs lead of 96,450
11/07/16: DEMs lead of 88,012
11/06/16: DEMs lead of 32,626
1) Yes - in particular a BIG one - Bay County. There is a MASSIVE GOP GOTV effort planned for tomorrow. Trump will be casting his own vote in-person in Palm Beach.
2) Most run until 11/1 I believe. I think Bay County is open through Election Day.
3) Yes, Miami-Dade is projected to have a net R in IPEV by tomorrow if you can believe it. Broward and Miami-Dade are trending in the right direction and may be Advantage Trump as soon as tomorrow.
On the downside, both Duval and Saratosa are bluer than we’d like.
BTW “Advantage Trump” means that the Republicans are doing better in early voting proportionally (all EV, not just IPEV) than they did in 2016.
1) Yes - in particular a BIG one - Bay County. There is a MASSIVE GOP GOTV effort planned for tomorrow. Trump will be casting his own vote in-person in Palm Beach.
2) Most run until 11/1 I believe. I think Bay County is open through Election Day.
3) Yes, Miami-Dade is projected to have a net R in IPEV by tomorrow if you can believe it. Broward and Miami-Dade are trending in the right direction and may be Advantage Trump as soon as tomorrow.
On the downside, both Duval and Saratosa are bluer than we’d like.
BTW “Advantage Trump” means that the Republicans are doing better in early voting proportionally (all EV, not just IPEV) than they did in 2016.
#AZsen:
McSally (R-inc) 49% (+2)
Kelly (D) 47%
Basswood Research/@AAF (R), LV, 10/3-5
https://americanactionforum.org/insight/arizona-policy-priorities-and-the-election-october-update/
I think they are all going now.
IPEV goes through next Fri I think, but not sure cuz each state different.
Miami, Palm Beach, Hillsborough.
NM Congressional candidates running from Biden on Energy.
https://twitter.com/XochforCongress/status/1319489170784608256
“BAYONETS! Florida.”
Give me more data and I’ll call it too.
“Trump’s campaign is doing a last-minute reversal on Minnesota.
Trump went dark on TV here this week — after six weeks of cutting reserved ad time — but campaign manager Bill Stepien says there will be a major a buy in the campaign’s final week.”
More reason to wonder if a red surge will bring NM with it.
Balance some risky bets off against safer bets.
For example, I bought Biden to win CO and VA.
It balances the risk of Trump bets on TX, OH.
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