am i understanding this correctly that 666K is the approx
(D-R) lead that would be expected to reproduce Trump’s 1.5 % margin of victory from 2016 ????
“am i understanding this correctly that 666K is the approx
(D-R) lead that would be expected to reproduce Trump’s 1.5 % margin of victory from 2016 ????”
Lets change the subject to percentages instead.
Ds need to have a turnout within 1% of Rs.
Right now with VBM, Ds lead by 4% in turnout 60.7% to 56.4%.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
IPEV, we don’t have that same kind of number because we don’t have a denominator like we have in VBM (which is request count).
We do know the IPEV lead. Which is 46.1% to 35.9% with an R lead. But this isn’t a turnout number. So don’t compare against (60.7% to 56.4%)
We won’t know turnout until the election is over. Of course, we will know the election results then and don’t need to know turnout.
I tried to do some modeling as a predictive forecast. People don’t like it. I understand. 2020 has changed how people vote which makes modeling difficult...
No one talks about fight club.