Posted on 10/22/2020 5:55:50 AM PDT by bort
It took 7 days, but Republicans finally cast more early votes (2,000) yesterday than Democrats. That, my friends, is excellent news. The current early vote (mail-ins + in-person) numbers are:
Democrats= 1,038,752 (42.62%)
Republicans= 691,174 (28.36%)
Dem Lead: 347,578
Again, in 2016 when Trump won NC by 3.8 percentage points, at the end of early voting, the Democrats had a lead of 310,000 votes. The Republicans cut 4 points off of the Democrats lead yesterday, and are likely favored to win most (if not every) of the remaining early voting days. (continued below)
ping
With Hillary pre-election day, she had 1,300,000 vs 990,000 Trump.
I don’t think the Dems are getting another 300,000 to beat that, and with Rs voting at higher numbers than Ds now, the margin will shrink over the next 12 days.
With Hillary pre-election day, she had 1,300,000 vs 990,000 Trump.
I don’t think the Dems are getting another 300,000 to beat that, and with Rs voting at higher numbers than Ds now, the margin will shrink over the next 12 days.
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Correct. BTW, it’s possible that the black vote drops to 18/19%. The black vote was largely front-loaded. This is likely due to the China Virus drop-off and lack of enthusiasm for Biden. No way Biden wins NC unless black vote hits above 22% (at least)
Whats odd is sleepy Joe did so good in the primaries in the South? But to me it is fairly obvious that younger blacks especially do not care for him.
At 18%, it would be EXACTLY where I predicted at a -5%, PLUS you have to assume between 12-15% blacks will vote Trump.
That would be a total net Trump “vote” of 14.5% to 17.5% (i.e., a non vote is .5 vote for each, but because it is a key group Ds count on, it hurts Demented Perv Biteme much more.)
Not too bad for a state Trump has supposedly given up on!
Good news on NC! Larry, your current thoughts re: MI and MN?
You are correct. We may be witnessing the worst black turnout in 30 years.
He was in Gastonia last night.
Friend went and said the FD radio said 12,500 were there.
What’s weird is the creepy congressman who basically forced Biden on the democrats has not been seen since.
Who dat ?
Trump will win MI and James will take that surprise senate seat.
Trump should win MN. Baris said he’s added an additional 150,000 voters in the Iron Range since 2016.
Apparently, the Smith/Lewis Senate race is 1 point. A good turnout can get rid of Smith. But we need at least ONE House flip from MN, one from IA, one from TX, 1-2 from FL, 1 from VA, 1-2 from NY, 1-2 from NJ, 2-3 from CA.
We might have a chance.
I strongly suspect we’ll see massive Republican voting at the open polls. Trump voters are bypassing the VBM scam and will show up in-person to cast their vote. HOWEVER...Guvner Cooper is still trying to scare Hell out of us by extending his COVID dictats until November 14th...and encouraging individual counties to institute their own punitive COVID lockdown rules.
I would not describe a James victory as a surprise.
Any time an R senator wins in MI, PA, WI, MN it’s a surprise.
But I did think he had a much better shot this year than last time, when he wasn’t quite ready. Now if we could get Kid Rock to take out Stabencow, all would be right in the world.
Creepy congressman? You're going to have to be a bit more specific. ;-)
The MI numbers are encouraging despite the fact that we are being told that Trump has pulled out of MI and will hurt James. My wife was listening to Hewitt this morning (I know, I know) and I came in as Eff Chuck Todd was doing a segment (why he allows that douche on his show is beyond me) claiming the Trump campaign had pulled out of MI already and that this would hurt turnout and prevent James from winning. I didn’t think I could despise this guy any more than I already do, but I can.
Trafalgar two weeks ago had Trump down 1.
Earlier this week he had it tied.
Then Trump up 1.
Now they have Trump up 2 in MI
The campaign feels very good about MI, as I was informed by someone very close to the campaign.
Casten could very well lose to Ives here in IL. She demolished him in the debate. And Trump has serious coat tails down ballot in Illinois in Republican areas.
Do you have any data on this race?
L
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