Posted on 10/21/2020 5:51:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 527,836
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 41,039
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 486,797
Combined (VBM+IPEV):
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
New Mexico Reps are showing up if nothing else and putting up a good fight.
Great news
If someone decides to surrender their mail-in ballot and vote early in person, is it still counted as a non returned ballot, or does it come off the books and no longer counted as sent? Mostly trying to figure out if it will mess with the VBM percentages
According to byecomey’s map, D combined lead right now is 459,372.
Started day at 486,797
With another hour of voting, Rs netted 27k thus far.
11 more days of this, D lead would be under 200k.
D lead in 2016 was 96k on election eve.
Great question.
You’re working left to right with the math. I’m working right to left.
I was born in a car on the way to the hospital.
You were probably born in a hospital.
Not big into polls, in case I haven’t made that clear. :-) Trump won IA by 9.5 points, and he pulled ad $$$ from there a few weeks ago. He has gone back once, and has another visit scheduled. I think Ernst wins, trailing Trump by 2-3 points. There are also three critical IA House races the GOP has a great opportunity to flip. IA-01, -02, and -03.
Pushed out a major change to https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ .
I should never have made 2016 Trump votes + 2016 Clinton votes. It caused too much confusion and is not an exact comparison.
I have, instead, made it more of an apples-to-apples comparison - 2016 early voter turnout by party registration. It will compare 2020 EV Republicans to 2016 EV Republicans.
Note that because of VBM with Dems, Dems are still expected to have a big EV advantage going into Election Day.
Yes I appreciate the change. It’s definitely more apples-to-apples.
I still expect Trump to outperform his 2016 election results, and drag some senators and Congressional reps across the finish line with him. But right now it's just a hypothesis. Ask me again in two weeks. :-)
I can describe a Joe Biden victory. He wins indies by about 8-10 points and the GOP suburbs really do abandon Trump. Biden wins 12-15% of the GOP vote while Trump wins 8% of the Dem vote, enough to flip key states. Likely? Heck no. But it's possible.
I just really hope more on our side will bust their butts for the next 13 days dragging friends/family members to vote, putting up signs, making calls, knocking on doors, etc. Leave nothing in the tank. I want the Democrats to pay dearly for the impeachment debacle, savaging of law enforcement and the well organized, well funded nationwide riots.
Thanks for putting this together.
Seems like a good time for a reminder:
Dark horse candidate? Mark Ronchetti of NM. He’s a well-known TV meteorologist. Trump lost the Land of Enchantment by 8.3 points, but former NM GOP governor Gary Johnson took 9.3% of the vote. GOPer Evan McMullin took another 0.7%, while Greenie Jill Stein only took 1.2%. If Trump does improve his performance among Hispanics, and Biden’s position on fracking hits him hard in NM, this open seat could swing GOP. For that to happen Trump would almost certainly need to carry NM. Should we see a Trump rally scheduled in NM, look out!
Guessing 550k total votes in FL today.
Another amazing day.
They may slice another 100,000 off tomorrow. Rs have just begun to show up.
11 more days of this and there won’t be a DemoKKKrat Party in FL.
Ha. I was born in a village somewhere down at the end of the road.
Anyone know where the Independents went in 2016, IIRC, Trump took it, but I don’t know by how much.
Random people reading our posts much have a good laugh.
When comparing early and mid, important to remember that the window in most states opened very early this year, very, very early.
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