Posted on 10/18/2020 2:10:36 PM PDT by 11th_VA
This is my follow-up article about the presidential election polls and predictions about the election results. You can read the first article here.
The best tool we have to determine the outcome of elections is polls. Each poll has its own bias and we can get rid of some of the bias in individual polls by combining the results of each individual poll in one giant poll. Fivethirtyeight is a website that does this for us. Its method isn't fool proof though. We can get rid of some of the bias, but not all of it.
Right before the 2016 presidential election, on November 7th, Fivethirtyeight estimated that Hillary Clinton had a 67% chance of winning the election. Yet, Donald Trump crushed Hillary. There are several reasons why this happened. I am not going to waste your time to discuss these. The most important factor was that voters didn't reveal their true intentions when asked by pollsters. As a result, polls failed to predict the outcome of the 2016 elections. Take a look at this screenshot of Fivethirtyeight's website from November 7, 2016 (the day before the 2016 election): ...
(Excerpt) Read more at yahoo.com ...
What is going to happen in the next two weeks is that the mass media polls will gradually show the race tightening and tightening and tightening....point by point...point by point....on and on and on....and then on election day you will see the first mainstream media polls showing the race in a dead heat or the President a point or so ahead...
This is because the early voting has already shown that a comfortable Trump victory in the electoral college is going to happen.
This video walks you through it step by step.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be
I think the diversity of towns and suburbs contributes to making it more difficult. Back in the day, you pretty much only had to survey one person of Irish/Polish/Scandinavian heritage to know how the town was leaning. Now it’s so diverse, plus .... you can’t get a representative ‘sample size’ of areas, People won’t respond, so the polls are meaningless.
Generally speaking, between conservatives and liberals, which one is more obsessed with sharing their opinion? Beyond those we know, bumper stickers alone tell me which type craves attention. Being polled is their therapy.
Is it telling Trump voters to stay home Trump has this? Never trust the MSM”.
Trump voters are not going to fall for their BS. Trump voters are fired up to vote and support the president.
It won’t be an upset for me. Donald J Trump will win again — not unexpectedly !
scam article ... anytime i try to read “the rest of the article”, it goes to this guys website and extends the list to 15 webpages, each one trying to sell this guy’s newsletter ... i never did get to the full set of states ...
Was great to see about 10 to 1 support for this modest Pro-Life bill.
It gives me hope that Colorado could flip for Trump.
With that said, and thankfully, we have an electoral college. Hillary kicked ass in Cali and NY, and Trump squeaked by in many states. But we know who the president is.
So anybody doing national polling is full of it and is mostly worthless.
That article ranks as one the the $h!tt!est click bait scams ever.
If one goes through the insider monkey site link, they basically say its a sweep of Biden in the Rust Belt states. So Biden wins.
Who is pretending to be Yahoo.news and posting pro Trump articles on their site?
*****
was thinking the same think, it’s gotta be a bogus Yahoo site
Wonder if it would be better to text
His analysis is flawed off the bat in assuming the same polling errors exist for 2020 that did in 2016. Also, his margins of losses for Trump are insane. There is no way Trump will lose a state by more than the amount 538 has him down by. Trump will outperform the 538 averages in nearly all cases.
I see zero enthusiasm for Biden. I watched a Biden rally today. The camera never Panned the parking lot. There were maybe 10 cars to be seen and the honking sounded like about 10 to 15 cars. There were 3 large school buses painted white. So maybe at most 200 people! Are we being gas lighted? I remember Hillary seemed to have bigger crowds than Biden I watch Trump boat parades with thousands of boats. Bike rallies with 300 motor cycles. It just goes on and on. I really don’t get it!
TRUMP signs are 10-1 over Biden’s in Phoenix area. It’s guns, baby.
I hope and pray he’s right.
Too many unknowns. The polls are crazy from one extreme to the other. Nobody knows how many funny mail ballots will be let into the count.
Yahoo news.......pigs just flew past my kitchen window!!!
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