State of the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/18/2020 | Coop

[Coop]

P.S. If Trump’s allegedly trailing Biden significantly, why is he in Nevada again today? Trump lost NV in 2016. If he’s supposedly in triage mode, POTUS doesn’t need those electoral votes.

[dp0622]

I will answer all your questions in 16 days :)

The rest is just mental masturbation.

And that’s fun.

Up to an extent.

That fun of playing with the numbers and guessing on this race or that race ended 15 political threads ago :)

Just vote.

And pray

[Pining_4_TX]

Oh, please, oh please, let Joni Ernst win. Greenfield is horrible. Ben Sasse... well, he’s better than the alternative, but what a tool.

[Coop]

Ping

[Coop]

Was there a question in all that? You’re quite the speed reader.

[Ravi]

Bookmark

[Pining_4_TX]

Earmarks were bad, right? So they got rid of them, but the result is that the most powerful people in the US today are the leaders of the House and Senate. All the members who are of the party of the leader must fall in line if they want anything at all for their state or district. That means Pelosi and McConnell are the real power brokers. This is why it is imperative that the Republicans control both House and Senate.

[shanover]

Well,if GOP loses Senate,a Trump win would be a four year impeachment lame duck with Stretch and Shmuck controlling everything essentially.

[DIRTYSECRET]

The one I can’t understand is John Gizzi of Newsmax. He thinks we’re gonna lose them all.

[Jane Long]

If Trump outperforms his 2016 victory, as I fully expect, then the Pubbies could gain Senate seats.

^^ THAT ^^ is what I'm hoping/praying for.

Thanks for the ping and all of the work putting this great info together!

Love the trivia question.

[Jane Long]

What is the accuracy rate of Gizzi’s predections?

[Political Junkie Too]

My Senate model prediction right now is a 50-50 Senate, with a 56% probability of Republicans reaching 51 seats.

-PJ

[chuckb87]

Remember Guy Benson of Townhall in 2016? If memory serves cankles would be president now.

[Coop]

Then I speculate you think Trump will underperform his 2016 election results?

[Coop]

^^ THAT ^^ is what I'm hoping/praying for. Thanks for the ping and all of the work putting this great info together! Love the trivia question.

You're welcome. In addition to hoping/praying, I hope a LOT of us are also working for that outcome. My feet are sore from hitting the pavement yesterday and today delivering campaign literature and signs. I'm in Connectistan, so there's really not a POTUS campaign to speak of around here. But the local GOP candidates and GOP offices are noticing more energy and volunteers/new faces now than for the past few elections. Hopefully that translates into more GOP votes. DJT lost CT by over 13 points, so I don't expect him to pull a rabbit out of his hat. But I do hope he improves his margin by several points.

[Coop]

Ping

[campaignPete R-CT]

Alaska is looking solid. I’m hopeful about Minnesota

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

Since WWII every Republican president (5) has done better at reelection than election except GHW Bush in 1992 (lost). Ike, Nixon, Reagan, GW Bush

Since WWII every Democrat president (5 excluding Kennedy, DIO) has done worse at reelection than election except Clinton in 1996. 3/5 lost office.

Truman dropped out due to unpopularity (1952).
Johnson dropped out due to unpopularity (1968).
Carter lost (1980).
Obama’s victory margin was less in 2012.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Virginia is D+1 PVI. Did Cook miss an ending 0 there?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Collins in ME can pull through even if Trump loses the state.

I think for others, AZ, NC, MI, Trump needs to pull them across the finish line.