State of the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/18/2020 | Coop

[Mr. N. Wolfe]

“My feet are sore from hitting the pavement yesterday and today delivering campaign literature and signs.”

Thanks for doing that.

[outofsalt]

Great Post!
The mail in vote will be the biggest monkey wrench, though mostly in the already blue states.
Virginia may flip one or two house seats back to R IMHO if the president’s coattails are good. (VA 2 & 7) so maybe the senate too. I’ve already voted. I don’t see the youth vote being enthused by Biden.

[Political Junkie Too]

Not sure yet.

My President and Senate models are a combination of the state polls and adjusted polls by statespoll.com, where available.

Because of the polling bias, it is hard to get a read on the national situation. Based on the published Presidential polls, Trump is running somewhere between 228 and 250 Electoral Votes. This range covers 30 days of polls, the lower end includes statespoll.com corrections and the higher range is ONLY statespoll.com corrections. I know these polls don't track with observed enthusiasm, so I will be watching for movement in the next two weeks.

On the Senate side, it's a different picture. I think those races come down to individual personalities.

• I think Susan Collins is gone in Maine. She has less than a 20% chance of winning. There is no saving her this time.
• For some reason, Colorado polling has been non-existent until this past week. Cory Gardner won his 2014 race by only 2%, and he's now running behind former governor John Hickenlooper by 9%. He has less than 1% chance of keeping his seat.
• Next is Martha McSally in Arizona. The statespoll.com adjustments give her a 12% boost in her probability, but she's still running under a 25% chance of winning based on the polls.
• Michigan is one of those states with big polling swings. John James is losing (38% probability) based on full polling, but is leading (69% probability) with only the statespoll.com adjusted polls.
• Iowa is similar to Michigan, but more tight. Joni Ernst is tied (50% probability) with all polls, and is slightly ahead (59% probability) with only statespoll.com adjusted polls.
• North Carolina hasn't seen the effects of the Democrat sex scandal in the polling. Thom Tillis is behind (36% probability) in all polling, but is ahead (68% probability) in statespoll.com adjusted polls, although Tillis doubled his position from last week in the full polling set.

-PJ

[thinden]

lotta good work there, coop.

[StAnDeliver]

C'mon Coop. WTF.

Charlie Cook is one dumb sack of human garbage. Oh look, here is his Senate prediction 4 years ago:

Here's Cook's summary of Trump's chances then, look familiar:

[StAnDeliver]

You're using his Cook Ratings and those same "Ratings" have McConnell recently downgraded from "Solid R" to "Likely R" despite no less than the very recent ChappaQuinnipiac showing Mitch +12 over a baby eater.

[Orlando]

Thank you for this chart...
It would be nice to see Trump campaign in the state of New Mexico, Delaware, and New Jersey..., And help those candidates running for the Senate and the house and at the same time maybe flip a couple of blue states.

Is there a similar chart for house seats ?

[Orlando]

Thank you for this chart...
It would be nice to see Trump campaign in the state of New Mexico, Delaware, and New Jersey..., And help those candidates running for the Senate and the house and at the same time maybe flip a couple of blue states.

Is there a similar chart for house seats ?

[Democrats hate too much]

My eye is on voter fraud in Georgia. That qwould make a difference.

[Democrats hate too much]

Dem voter fraud in Georgia would cause a lot of problems for the Republicans. I hope the state is on top of a fair election.

[StAnDeliver]

And btw, note if Quinnipiac has Mitch +12, it means the Trump MonsterVote is primed to repeat the 62-32 victory -- and that means, the people who create that kind of lopsided +29.84% victory proved in 2016 to also live in OH, IN, WV, TN, but most importantly, PA ("Pennsyltucky") and MI!

Biden can't just flip WI and win without PA. In fact Biden can't win if he flips BOTH WI and PA.

Ay any rate, John James is the surprise Senate winner of Election Night. Tuberville takes AL. We lose Collins. GOP net gain +1.

[Coop]

You're using his Cook Ratings and those same "Ratings" have McConnell recently downgraded from "Solid R" to "Likely R"

I am? That's news to me.

[hsmomx3]

Yeah, I don’t gt that either.

Here in AZ, Kelly is running non-stop ads vs very little McSally ads. And Kirsten Synema is in a pro-Kelly ad which I have not seen before today.

McSally needs to put more ads out there.

[Coop]

Virginia is D+1 PVI. Did Cook miss an ending 0 there?

I hope that was a joke. Far too many around here seem to think VA is "deep blue" or very blue. It's simply not. Even in 2008 Obama's VA margin was only 6.2 points, while his national margin was over 7.2 points.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

It is because SOROS money is FLOODING Dem candidates our side has to win on ideas!!!

[Coop]

My President and Senate models are a combination of the state polls and adjusted polls by statespoll.com, where available.

That's what I figured. And there's nothing wrong with that, if the polls are accurate. I think they're pretty inaccurate, a la 2016. I have ignored Trump xx%, Biden yy% polls almost completely. I have looked at the Ras daily tracking poll, as well as polls measuring enthusiasm (out-of-WH-power Dems historically should be ahead, but they're trailing considerably). I am looking at GOP success in voter registration, as well as fundraising (2020 compared to 2016) and time the GOP has had to put ground games in place in key states. Plus how many unions have switched from Dem to GOP this election? That has to have some effect, but I'm not sure how to measure it. Certain union (mostly police, firefighters) get-out-the-vote operations are at a minimum not helping Democrats, and in some cases will be helping Republicans. Time will tell.

[Coop]

You are WAY off base. Suggest you go back and read the two links I provided up top.

[Coop]

Thank you for this chart... Is there a similar chart for house seats ?

You're welcome. Yes, I provided a link at the beginning of the thread.

[Coop]

A John James victory will surprise hardly anybody, especially on this site.

[outofsalt]

Soros bought VA in 18. He’s spreading his money elsewhere this cycle.