Posted on 10/18/2020 1:18:46 PM PDT by Coop
I really hope and pray all of the money these goons have spent is wasted money and their candidates lose.
John Gizzi believes the MSM polls. He is supposed to be a polling expert but fails to do any deep dive on any of them. Anyone with a shred of common sense can look at internals to see data that is counter intuitive at best. A couple weeks ago he posted a poll where Biden was supposedly leading but when I reviewed the internals, it showed that the Hispanic vote would drop even though their participation has grown in every election. The one red flag that convinced me the poll was bogus? Biden was leading amongst Protestants and Catholics. Gizzi has no clue.
Guy Benson is a never Trumper disguised as a conservative. He wanted Arizona Governor Doug Ducey to pick Meghan McCain for the Senate Seat. That speaks volumes to me.
I should clarify, if you haven't already seen it in other posts of mine.
The model is probabilistic. It uses the margin of error to convert the polls into probabilities of the leader actually winning. The probabilities then go into a Monte Carlo simulation to produce the final results.
A few weeks ago, I did a sensitivity test on bias in the polls by running it through Solver to find the give/take that makes the election a tie in the model. Actually, you saw this already in this post from October 6. At the time, a 2.1% swing from Biden to Trump tied the election. A 3.6% swing reproduced 2016 results.
I should rerun this analysis with today's polls, but the point is still this: if you believe the polls are off by more than 3%, then Trump is winning.
-PJ
Ah yes, I do recall that post now, thank you. I am obviously not using models, polls (for the most part) and statistics. But based on the factors I identified earlier I expect Trump to exceed his 2016 performance.
Good info, thanks
Maine splits it’s four electoral votes.
In 2016, Trump won CD 2....80% of the state...by 10 points, and received one electoral vote. A repeat is quite possible. Hilarity won CD 1....close to Boston and more liberal than CD 2. One electoral vote for Satan’s daughter. Statewide, the Hildebeast won by 2.9%, giving her two more electoral votes.
I would be stunned if Collins loses. She’s good on local issues, and won 67% of the vote in 2014.
The one faint hope that Gade is getting some traction here is the almost weekly mail flyers from the VA dems claiming the standard DNC crap that Gade, a wounded vet, wants to scrap medical coverage for existing conditions. Something may be afoot in internal polling somewhere.
That is what I’m worried about. If we win Pres. but lose Senate and don’t take the House, he will be impeached.
On youtube I keep seeing GOP senators begging for money to save Daines in MT but the OP shows Daines winning by a lot.
See #50
Trump has already been impeached. If the Dems keep the House he'll probably be impeached again because they won't have been punished for their treacherous behavior. But even if the Ds win the Senate, they won't have 67 votes to remove Trump from office. POTUS would just laugh at them.
I don’t know what an OP is. Trump carried MT by 19.5 points four years ago, and I expect he’ll meet or beat that margin this time around. Even with the current MT governor running against him, I can’t see Daines underperforming the POTUS by 20 points and losing. However, why not tap into the worries? Lindsey Graham was hitting me up repeatedly for money, playing off the fears he was losing. I’ll be stunned if Sen. Graham doesn’t win comfortably.
Excellent as always.
Thank you, but it appears not too many agree with your kind assessment. If I listen closely enough I can actually hear echoes as I type on this thread.
Maybe as you say, crazed GOP fundraiser convinced Daines he is about to lose the election. Or maybe that race really is close. I was actually thinking about contributing to Daines. I definitely wasn't going to click on a link and put my name on a list forever. I got a phone number to send a contribution from one of Daines's offices. I left a message and they never called me back.
Thanks for your hard work on this and your previous posts. I appreciate that you gave a range of possible outcomes based on different assumptions.
Okay, original poster. Got it. To be clear, my chart is not showing a prediction of how GOP senators will fare in 2020. It shows the state, candidate Trump's margin of victory/loss in 2016, the state's Cook PVI rating, and websites of GOP candidates. Basically the first three rows are to show how Republican a state is and how well Trump did, and then assess that against all the posts around here saying "Trump can't win Nevada." Or "Virginia is deep blue." With the data laid out, it shows the Senate map isn't overwhelming like some claim it is.
I appreciate your kind words. Let’s hope some lurkers are actually visiting the websites and learning about Repub candidates.
Any one : which candidates need money the most ( to make a difference for all of us?) I fear it’s Linda and I will have to hold my nose and write a check
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