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Why Polls This Year Are Crap: A Continuing Saga
https://the-american-catholic.com/ ^ | 10/16/2020 | Donald R. McClarey

Posted on 10/18/2020 8:08:26 AM PDT by BenghaziMemoriam

Robert Barnes explains how bad the polls are. As well as being an attorney, Barnes
has wagered on elections for decades. He has never been wrong on a presidential
election. In 2016 he won 500k betting on Trump. He puts his money where his mouth is.
Ignore the polls and focus on the election fundamentals.

(Excerpt) Read more at the-american-catholic.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2020election; election2020; landslide; polls; redwave; robertbarnes; trump; trumplandslide
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To: doc maverick

“All of the concentration camps being set up by Democrats...”

Reopen Andersonville... for democrats.


41 posted on 10/18/2020 9:38:37 AM PDT by Bonemaker (invictus maneo)
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

Statistics like polls have no meaning. Statistics does have a role under highly controlled environments like manufacturing with fewer variables.

The lie is that polls have any meaning. At best they measure how my indigestion is affecting my attitude at the moment of the poll.


42 posted on 10/18/2020 9:42:34 AM PDT by PeterPrinciple (Thinking Caps are no longer being issued but there must be a warehouse full of them somewhere.)
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To: Trump.Deplorable
Polls are crap because nobody has land lines

No, Poll are crap because almost all of the Pollsters are agents of the DNC.

They are interested in only one thing, influencing the voters.

Your post presumes that the Pollsters have some sort of honor and decency. They don't like most of the Democrats.
43 posted on 10/18/2020 9:43:39 AM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: cgbg

“Biden is the weakest challenger since McGovern...”

At least McGovern was a WW2 combat vet whereas Biden has been nothing but a shyster politician his whole career.


44 posted on 10/18/2020 9:44:01 AM PDT by Bonemaker (invictus maneo)
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To: Brilliant
This year, after rioting, arson, and street killings of Trump supporters, identifying to strangers as a Trump supporter clearly carries risks to one's safety and to the safety of family members.

That is why suburban women especially seem to have gone against Trump. His supporters in that family centric demographic now decline even more to participate in polls, which thus makes the available survey respondents less friendly toward Trump.

Pollsters are hard put to identify and correct for this effect. Their demographic and turnout models are thus of doubtful reliability. This makes the polls increasingly unreliable except to show relative changes, which now indicate that Trump is surging.

45 posted on 10/18/2020 9:45:27 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: Rockingham
This year, after rioting, arson, and street killings of Trump supporters, identifying to strangers as a Trump supporter clearly carries risks to one's safety and to the safety of family members.

That is why suburban women especially seem to have gone against Trump. His supporters in that family centric demographic now decline even more to participate in polls, which thus makes the available survey respondents less friendly toward Trump.

Pollsters are hard put to identify and correct for this effect. Their demographic and turnout models are thus of doubtful reliability. This makes the polls increasingly unreliable except to show relative changes, which now indicate that Trump is surging.

The best way, IMHO, is asking, “Who do you think will win?”
The Trump voter can answer that without taking responsibility for the prediction.

46 posted on 10/18/2020 9:58:08 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (Socialism is cynicism directed towards society and - correspondingly - naivete towards government.)
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To: MuttTheHoople; All
".... And none of this accounts for the silent Trump voters who .... don't want.... to have their property vandalized...."

And I might add this anecdotal story. I was coming out of a store a while back, when a guy from a group of Trump supporters in the parking lot approached me and asked if I wanted a Trump/Pence number sticker. I said no and he asked, "Why? Don't you support the president?"

I answered that I absolutely supported Trump and had already voted for him. I told him I just didn't wanted my care "keyed".

47 posted on 10/18/2020 10:16:33 AM PDT by HotHunt
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To: Rockingham

I hope you’re right.


48 posted on 10/18/2020 10:53:52 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion

That works, to a degree, but it still fails to get people into the survey who simply do not answer surveys or calls from unrecognized numbers.


49 posted on 10/18/2020 11:01:11 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: BenghaziMemoriam

EVERY nervous Nellie out there needs to watch this video - he’s confirmed my heart felt ideas.


50 posted on 10/18/2020 11:17:31 AM PDT by 11th_VA (I believe Hunter BidenÂ’s emails ...)
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To: Lazamataz

Lax - you should watch (or listen); big takeaway: POLLING said RATs would be running up the early vote - they are not. The predictions of a big RAT win are based on early numbers. Their ammunition is spent, and now Trump enthusiasm is about to show up - he predicts a bigger poll failure than Dewey vs Truman.


51 posted on 10/18/2020 11:20:57 AM PDT by 11th_VA (I believe Hunter BidenÂ’s emails ...)
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To: IrishBrigade
so if Trump were up 7 points with two weeks to go you’d consider his odds to be crap...?

It’s more complicated - in today’s environment, Trump Would really be up 40 points. In 2020, polls are unreliable - working class Trump voters don’t answer poll - Trump hating Librarians answer polls

52 posted on 10/18/2020 11:25:17 AM PDT by 11th_VA (I believe Hunter BidenÂ’s emails ...)
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To: SunkenCiv

Polls made for public consumption have always been crap.

They’ve never been anything other than a tool for manipulation.

Psycho-Social Manipulation via Pseudo-Demographics.

Program started side by side with Project Mockingbird and the LSD experiments.


53 posted on 10/18/2020 11:58:56 AM PDT by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: Lazamataz

The video contains excellent analysis. Including historical and present trends about polling accuracy.

Bottom line is the guy us all in for a Trump victory.


54 posted on 10/18/2020 12:20:04 PM PDT by reviled downesdad (Some of the lost will never believe the Truth.)
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To: Brilliant

“I do think that conservatives are less likely to participate in polls than they were in 2016. But I’m not sure that necessarily translates into the same election results we had in 2016”
______________________________________

Rich Baris (Peoples Pundit); Patrick Basham (Democracy Initiative); Robert Cahaly (Trafalgar) all agree there is more “shy” Trump vote this time than 2016. Trafalgar even quantifies it by saying it is now “double” 2016.


55 posted on 10/18/2020 1:18:28 PM PDT by Cathi
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion

Good research, thank you.


56 posted on 10/19/2020 5:02:54 AM PDT by Robert A Cook PE ( I can only donate monthly, but the radical ABCNNBCBS does it every hour on their news.)
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