This is a tidal wave ...
Posted on 10/16/2020 4:43:33 PM PDT by Its All Over Except ...
Pollster from Trafalgar: I predict Trump will win with...
(Excerpt) Read more at mobile.twitter.com ...
Now, THAT’D be more like it!!
Ummmm, one key sate and he loses? You do realize that it requires 270 to win? What key state would cost him the whole ball of wax based on this model?
RE: Dr. Helmut Norpoth’s election model is based on turnout during the primaries, produces the correct result for 25 out of the 27 presidential elections that featured primaries, and predicts a red wave in 2020
I’m just curious as to which two elections he missed.
Here’s the last 27 Presidential elections:
2016 Trump-Hillary
2012 Obama-Romney
2008 Obama-McCain
2004 Bush-Kerry
2000 Bush-Gore
1996 Clinton-Dole
1992 Clinton-Bush
1988 Bush-Dukakis
1984 Reagan-Mondale
1980 Reagan-Carter
1976 Carter-Ford
1972 Nixon-McGovern
1968 Nixon-Humphrey
1964 LBJ-Goldwater
1960 JFK-Nixon
1956 Eisenhower-Stevenson
1952 Eisenhower-Stevenson
1948 Truman-Dewey
1944 FDR-Dewey
1940 FDR-Willkie
1936 FDR-Landon
1932 FDR-Hoover
1928 Hoover-Smith
1924 Coolidge-Davis
1920 Harding-Cox
1916 Wilson-Hughes
1912 Wilson-Roosevelt
1908 Taft-Bryant
So, which ones did Dr. Norpoth’s model miss?
I went looking for the original article. Here’s one from Sept. 2:
But here’s one from Aug 25th, with much more detail:
https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth-trump-win-november/
This is a tidal wave ...
He has Trump winning 276 electoral votes to Biden’s 262. He has Trump winning Michigan (16 electoral votes) by only 1%. If Trump loses Michigan, Biden wins the electoral vote 278 - 260.
I went looking and found this from Aug. 23, 2020,:
https://www.kwtx.com/2020/08/24/prolific-elections-predictor-trump-wins-2020-in-a-landslide/
it says:
“Norpoth was one of a handful of pollsters who correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, and his Primary Model has predicted five of the six presidential elections since 1996. When applied to previous elections, the model correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, missing only the 2000 election in which George W. Bush defeated Al Gore and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon.”
We suspect the 1960 election was stolen through Chicago vote fraud. We know 520 votes swung Florida. Those were two unusual events.
I’ll go with his prediction, although I don’t think Trump’ll get NY.
NY?!
seriously?
I like his model. He treats primary elections like very large polls, which is tailored state by state and far more accurate because of a large number of voters.
He has Trump taking Hawaii too. I’ll believe it when I see it, the next day.
Trump to win NY? Right.
37,000 black voters become independents in NC.
“With 35% African-American male support, 50% Hispanic support, and early voting as strong for Republicans as it is for Democrats, I see a massive landslide.”
Unlikely...but:
15% Blacks — which is more than enough.
40% Hispanics — same.
Reading through the Twitter thread, I saw that he only predicts the national outcome, not individual states.
Someone else added the map.
NY will stay very blue. In fact, the very blue states will likely go bluer.
Absolutely correct.
This is just another “Prediction”. Being correct in the past does not guarantee being correct in the future.
Given that several of the battleground states are essentially tossups according to Trafalgar, I’m surprised that he makes a prediction.
No no no. We are behind. We must keep pushing.
I agree. The black female vote will keep the overall percentage down, especially since they are far more likely to vote than black males.
If Trump gets 362 EVs we hold the Senate and prob gain.
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