Posted on 10/15/2020 8:24:34 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
A change of pace for you from all the polling doom and gloom lately. Most readers know the name Trafalgar at this point, but for the few who dont: Theyre the firm that called Trumps wins in Michigan and Pennsylvania four years ago when nearly every other pollster was predicting Clinton victories, some by blowout margins. (Trafalgar was the only outfit to find Trump ahead in Michigan in any survey taken that year.) Two years later, with the rest of the field polling field expecting an Andrew Gillum victory in Florida, Trafalgars final poll found Ron DeSantis ahead. Again, they were right, everyone else was wrong.
Their secret is that they try to adjust for social desirability bias, the reluctance of some people to tell pollsters the truth about their preferences for fear of being judged disapprovingly. Robert Cahaly, Trafalgars lead pollster, is of the belief that that effect is especially prevalent among Trump voters. If in fact there are a ton of shy Trumpers still out there who are lying to pollsters which many experts doubt then the polls this year are way off.
Except Trafalgars, perhaps. If in fact Trump performs much better on Election Day than the competition expects, and especially if he does well enough to win another term, Cahaly will instantly be the most renowned pollster in America. The rest of the polling industry will never recover its reputation. Thats whats on the line on November 3, in addition to control of the White House and Senate.
All of that is an introduction for you to the conversation below between Cahaly and Mike Pesca of Slate. If you can spare 18 minutes to listen to the whole thing, please do. Cahaly takes the listener through his approach to polling and explains the importance of social desirability bias, which he believes is even *more* pronounced this year than it was when Trump first ran for president. Thats borne out in some of his numbers over the past month, which reliably show Trump scoring five points higher or more than the polling average. Skim through the latest numbers from Michigan, the site of Cahalys most celebrated success in 2016. Of the last 11 surveys there, Biden leads by eight points or better in nine of them. In the 10th poll he leads by six.
In the 11th, from Trafalgar, he trails Trump by one. Thats an eight-point difference between Cahalys result and the current average of 7.2 points. But Cahaly isnt cowed. He tells Pesca in their chat that he thinks Michigan is the likeliest of the Rust Belt swing states to stay red this year, which completely contradicts the conventional wisdom that Michigan is actually Trumps toughest hold in the region. In fact, Trump had been off the air in the state from late July until a few days ago, when he began running ads again. Id been wondering lately if he was going to give up on the state altogether and focus his efforts on Pennsylvania, treating MI as a lost cause. On the contrary, says Cahaly. Expect another win in Michigan.
Its hard to overstate just how far off the beaten path his numbers are relative to everyone elses, including pollsters that tend to be friendlier to Biden. Trafalgar isnt just expecting shy Trump voters to be a factor. Theyre expecting them to be a massive factor:
What's also interesting about Trafalgar is that they're always biased toward Trump by about the same amount, unlike Quinnipiac where they do have a handful of polls that are better than the average for Trump.
https://t.co/KxJa7WMQJv Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 15, 2020
Via RCP, here are the latest Trafalgar numbers from battlegrounds (although bear in mind that some of these are close to a month old):
Florida: Trump by two
Pennsylvania: Biden by two
Wisconsin: Biden by three
North Carolina: Trump by two
Michigan: Trump by one
Ohio: Trump by four
Arizona: Trump by four
If all of those results held on Election Day, assuming no unlikely Biden victories elsewhere, Trump would win 276-262. Thats right in line with Cahalys forecast for the election, which he delivers to Pesca at 26:00 of the clip below Trump in the mid-270 range. Which is the most encouraging polling news Team MAGA has had in months.
But dont get too cocky. Look back again at the numbers above and notice how tight the margins are. A polling miss of two or three points would be perfectly ordinary for any pollster, yet Cahalys prediction depends upon him missing nowhere. If Biden fares just two points better in Michigan than Trafalgar expects, hell be president. If hes three points better in Florida and North Carolina, hell be president comfortably. And as impressive as Cahalys 2016 polling was, he *did* overshoot the mark on Trump in Michigan, predicting a two-point victory in a state the president won by just three-tenths of a point. If Trafalgars current Michigan numbers are off by the same margin, Biden would win the White House by the skin of his teeth.
Theres no margin for error. The interview with Pesca starts at 10:30 below.
It is primarily because of Trump's personality. It turns off a lot of people, especially women. Secondarily, it is because of four solid years of the media, every single day, skewing all stories to cast Trump in a negative light. But if Trump could have just toned down his off-putting comments and tweets, he would be leading by a lot, since the results of his administration have been so good.
It is primarily because of Trump's personality. It turns off a lot of people, especially women. Secondarily, it is because of four solid years of the media, every single day, skewing all stories to cast Trump in a negative light. But if Trump could have just toned down his off-putting comments and tweets, he would be leading by a lot, since the results of his administration have been so good.
Internal campaign poll. Read the article yesterday. It said Biden is up 27 points in Oakland per his polls, but Trump campaign said Biden is up “only” 18. Slotkin is also up big.
I will vote obviously but I think the fix is in. MSM talking about long lines and showing blacks of course, and just pumping this thing up as if there is no way Biden will lose bc he wont with all the mail in and ballot harvesting shenanigans going on. Deep state not taking any chances this time. The votes will be manufactured to what they need. I pray I am wrong but what can you do against the folks that “count” the ballots.
Its not really Biden, the the Establishment and deep state, very formidable
270s is not enough. Trump needs to win by 300 or more to keep the Dems from stealing votes and flipping states. They’ve tried it before and they’ll try it again.
You’re right, many women don’t care how bad Biden is, they’re just tired of Trump’s personality and the drama it creates.
It's one thing for these women to say they're "tired of Trump." It's quite another for them to ride that emotion to the polling place (functionally: vote by mail or in person) and punch a ballot with it. Maybe they'll just whine and stay home. The energy of this bunch in '16 for the "first woman president" ended up being channeled into a protest march on Inauguration Day and a bunch of pink hats.
Do they have enough energy to vote "against Trump"? I don't think so. I think they have even less energy to vote "for" Biden. And I am not so sure they're enthused about Senator Harris.
So they can be "tired" all they want, as long as they don't vote, or influence their friends and family members (husbands especially) to vote their desires for them.
So far Oakland Mi returned absentee/early voting according to https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/ is
Democrat 83,930 (48.1%)
Republican 55,575 (31.9%)
Unaffiliated 34,952 (20.0%)
Total 174,457 (47% of requested ballots.)
In a sane world, I would expect a 536-0 win.
I hope not but it was so close last time. Well see what happens!
You dont know that at all. Thats just wishful thinking. I guess you are one of many who said the House would stay republican in 2018.
One liberal-leaning acquaintance told me he voted for Bidet because he will "bring dignity back to the Oval Office". Snort. Dignity?! Wait till Hunter and his mistresses roll around on that carpet, they'd make Slick Willy look like Mother Teresa.
She doesnt have that authority. About 60% of Calis voters vote by mail in a typical election - that is about 8 million paper ballots to count. It takes Cali a whole month to count them. It doesnt really matter since we know Biden will win the state but counting will continue until theyre done. Its no more complicated than that.
There are an awful lot of stupid people. The left has built an industry that exists only to scrub any unacceptable thoughts from peoples skulls, fill the resulting empty vessels with leftist idiocy and rage, pump them up with a delusional belief in their own superiority, and send them out into the world to multiply by recruiting others, or by intimidating dissenters into submission.
Our education system has devastated several generations by turning them into brainwashed cult members. And the push that began a number of years ago to focus on kids self esteem, which seemed like just a bit of foolishness to joke about at the time, was in reality far more insidious. The left was constantly stroking kids egos, telling them how special they are and how much more enlightened they are than their parents, and the result is young adults who believe themselves to be so superior to everyone around them that they are impervious to contrary facts or logic, and feel so entitled that they think anything they feel the need to do to achieve their aims is justifiable.
That’s funny because I have him at well over 300.
He is going to win the same states as 2016 and a few more.
OMG
pathetic
Hopefully the continued drip drip drip of the Biden’s corruption being exposed daily will boost Trump by a few points.
Also, last time a lot of libertarians jumped on board for Trump as did late breaking Independents. That too could be worth 2-3 points. That would make all the difference in this election.
Trump isn’t fighting Biden. Trump is fighting the Democrat Media/Big Tech Establishment.
women tired of drama, huh?
lol
that’s rich. that’s all they do on social media and in politics is act hysterical and create drama.
I’m a female
Also can you please link to this article where Trump’s campaign talked about their internal polling in Michigan???
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