But not as tall as Jeb!
Posted on 10/11/2020 1:46:03 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17
With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020… and what to watch for on Election Night.
Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average. And the Predictit markets imply a 67% probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. Additionally, those markets suggest that Democrats will win both the Senate and House (66% and 88% probabilities, respectively). Quite simply, it appears that a Blue Wave is fast approaching, something which the market has not only priced in, but has successfully digested as a favorable narrative for risk assets.
It would be easy to simply close the books and call the November contest over. But, of course, the major polls were all wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race.
In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. "Shocking", their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, "capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results."
(Excerpt) Read more at thedailycoin.org ...
Please explain. Thanks.
Complete bullcrap. Trump will win. We’ll hold the Senate, and probably win back the House of Representatives.
All correct.
But the result won't be anything like Venezuela.
More like East Germany.
Expect the Great American Divorce...secession of a number of states (like Texas)
If the RATs get control of the White House and both Chambers of Congress, kiss America goodbye.Lefties never make good on their promises to leave the country when the Republican wins. OTOH, wasn't it Barry O who went after American ex-pats who fled his confiscatory tax and regulatory regime?
I do not know why I read this tripe. Their take away of this article was that all of the major polling organization, except for one, failed to predict Trump’s victory. However, looking at their charts, their assertion is false. The polls measured the beauty contest, nationwide popular preference. Clinton won the beauty contest and most of the polls got that part right.
But, that’s not how we elect Presidents, we have multiple contests ending with a selection of the Electoral College who elect the President and Vice President. The major polls didn’t measure this contest and therefore cannot have predicted the outcome. Modern polls ignore most states, especially in Flyover Country and just can’t be bothered to poll all of the state contests. That’s expense don’t you know.
The problem of the polls is that if you look back at the early October 2016 polls, they were entirely different from the early November 2016 polls. We are still in October, the polls, the media, and the Democrats are still in lying and deceiving mode. When they play for the record in late October, the results will change, probably very similar to 2016.
The other good news is that the legal challenges to the judiciary overreach on election law is bringing forth fruit with more to come. California and New York don’t count because they will be in the Democrat column no matter what. The State at most risk is Pennsylvania which is also the most important state this year. 2020 PA is the 2000 FL. Every lawyer in the country ought to make a reservation at a Hilton Garden Inn ASAP.
Well that sure sounds definitive. Hahahaha. Trump is going to win a by a large margin. The Harris/Biden ticket can't even get people to show up to their rallies in places they are favored. There is zero enthusiasm for the dem ticket. Biden's an idiot on wheels (soon to be wheelchair) and Heels Up Harris is nearly as unlikable as Crooked Hillary. I mean; can you imagine listening to that voice and seeing that smarmy-assed face for 4 years? Yeah; neither can moderate dems. (if there is still such a thing)
https://twitter.com/InfidelAngela/status/1315359365893967874
It doesn’t take a genius to see that the Dems are going to steal everything through massive vote fraud. That looks like the safe bet.
They are going to lose and scream for the next four years that Trump is illegitimate and stole the election.
What do you mean by this?
But not as tall as Jeb!
If we reach the point where leftists and their allies in media and government bureaucracies will simply not permit an electoral result to stand that they don’t like, then there are no civil remedies remaining if we care about preserving America.
It is not for the primary season. It is true for the election of a president
So, the tallest presidential candidate wins, eh?
Ooookay...
Check it. It’s historically accurate
You can Pooh Pooh all you want
Oh I so hope you are right!
My stomach has been in knots terribly the past few months.
Godo analysis and if Trump wins and we hold the senate we will be ok
Monday Baris and Barnes, will go over their huge and
accurate Pa poll see
https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/with_replies
They have improperly guessed our elections since 1776...
It has been so much fun watching the pundits melt down when The Donald won in 2016.
Will be much more satisfying when he proves them all wrong Again.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.