State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

[Coop]

There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.

At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.

As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊

GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.

The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).

House Democrats in Districts Won by Trump
State/District	2016 Trump Margin	Cook Rating	Republican Candidate
AZ-01	4 pts	R+2	Tiffany Shedd
GA-06	1.5 pts	R+8	Karen Handel
IL-14	< 4 pts	R+5	Jim Oberweis
IL-17	0.7 pts	D+3	Esther J. King*
IA-01	3.5 pts	D+1	Ashley Hinson
IA-02 (open)	4 pts	D+1	Mariannette Miller-Meeks*
IA-03	3.5 pts	R+1	Former Rep. David Young
ME-02	>10 pts	R+2	Dale Crafts
MI-08	<7 pts	R+4	Paul Junge
MI-11	>3 pts	R+4	Eric Esshaki
MN-02	>1 pt	R+2	Tyler Kistner*
MN-07	<31 pts	R+12	LtGov Michelle Fischbach
NV-03	1 pt	R+2	”Big Dan” Rodimer
NH-01	1.6 pts	R+2	Matt Mowers
NJ-03	>6 pts	R+2	David Richter
NJ-05	1 pt	R+3	Frank Pallotta
NJ-11	<1 pt	R+3	Rosemary Becchi
NM-02	~10 pts	R+6	Yvette Herrell
NY-11	<10 pts	R+3	Nicole Malliotakis
NY-19	<7 pts	R+2	Kyle Van De Water*
NY-22	<15 pts	R+6	Former Rep. Claudia Tenney
OK-05	~13 pts	R+10	Stephanie Bice
PA-08	<10 pts	???	Jim Bognet
PA-17	2.6 pts	???	Sean Parnell*
SC-01	13 pts	R+10	Nancy Mace
UT-04	<7 pts	R+13	NFL player Burgess Owens
VA-02	3.4 pts	R+3	Former Rep. Scott Taylor*
VA-07	6.5 pts	R+6	Nick Freitas*
WI-03	4.5 pts	Even	Derrick Van Orden*

House Republicans in Districts Won by Clinton
State/District	2016 Trump Margin	Cook Rating	Republican Candidate
NY-24	-3.6 pts	D+3	Rep. John Katko
PA-01	-2 pts	D+2	Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
TX-23 (open)	-3.4 pts	R+1	Tony Gonzales*

* = military veteran

Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.

What can you do to help retire Nancy?

• Donate your time – either in person or by making calls from anywhere in the U.S. (maybe even globally – I’m not really sure). Contact your preferred campaign(s).
• Donate some $$. It doesn’t need to be much. Even a small donation pays for some bumper stickers/signs and shows the candidates they’re not alone.
• Share this thread and/or specific candidate info & links with friends and family.
• As mentioned earlier, please add additional competitive races to this thread.
• Pitch in a few bucks to the FReepathon.

Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.

If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.

[Liz]

Pres Trump will host a massive political campaign rally Monday evening, 10/12/2020, at Sanford International Airport, Fla.

Trump supporters need to turn out by the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands supporting
cheering on, an welcoming our great president back to active live political campaigning.

Let’s be there in gigantic force. Help Trump Destroy the entire Democrat Traitor Political Party forever.
Contact: www.donaldjtrump.com for further info and free tickets.

---

NOTE Sanford, Florida is very near to Orlando, Tampa, Daytona Beach, Kissimmee, The Villages,
Ocala. Gainesville, Stuart, Port St. Lucie, and a three hour drive from Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach.

[CPT Clay]

https://texasreloaded.com

This is great!!!

[Liz]

The befuddled, doddering Biden cant get his story straight. At the first debate, Biden insisted "he was the leader of the Democratic Party."

Yet, when asked why he did not call the Oregon/Seattle governor and mayor to get out the Natl Guard to quell the "peaceful protest rioting," Biden answered, ‘I am not an elected official.’

BACKSTORY So reminiscent of Biden saying "he wished he could have done more for Anita Hill" at the sexually charged Clarence Thomas USSC Judiciary Committee hearings. Someone had to remind him he was chairman of the Judiciary Committee at the time ....with unlimited power at his disposal.

==================================

It is mind-boggling Democrats would try to pass off this doddering old relic with one foot in the grave as a viable presidential candidate. Clearly democrats believe souped-up voter fraud will elect this half-human Biden..... and have other frauds up their sleeve to gain power.

[Liz]

A focus group of 15 undecided voters from eight swing states on debate night, concluded the VP debate “was Mike Pence’s night.”

Style and substance matter to undecided voters and the complaint about Kamala was her “abrasiveness and condescension.”

Harris’ smiling, smirking, scowling reactions to Pence left the focus group far “angrier” than with her debate performance.

Biden’s attitude and remarks remind us his entire political career reveal a self-serving politician who thinks too much of himself, not much of others, and even less of women and people of color.

The get-rich-quick Biden Crime Family Syndicate is first and foremost to Joe Biden.

BTW, have you heard? Biden’s got a new running mate….....cackle.

[CPT Clay]

Republican Kenny Marchant only won by .5% in ‘18.
Beth Van Duyne (R) is a former City Councilman, and Mayor in the district. Candice Valenzuela is a Communist in the same vain as AOC. More outside money than God is pouring into this race. It is a very competitive race. The district is made up of parts of 3 counties. The Dallas County portion has been trending blue. I haven’t looked at the fundraising #’s. I can get that for you later.What other facts are you looking for, this is a great thread.Watch: https://texasreloaded.com

[CPT Clay]

Democrats are just lying in wait for the chance to seize absolute power.

This is their last chance, it is going to be ugly.

[Coop]

Yes, I've seen that video a few times. It's great, and thanks for posting. It's completely relevant to TX-23 and TX-24. The info you provided is very good. I also hope folks will post links to the GOP candidate websites, as well as PVI info or Trump's margin of victory/defeat in that district.

Former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne. In 2016 Trump won the 24th district 51-45%.

[deport]

Mark Bauer, an independent candidate, has joined others running for an open seat in Texas’ 24th Congressional District.

Bauer, a former legal journalist who grew up in Arlington, submitted 531 petition signatures Aug. 13 to include his name on the ballot, according to a news release.

Also running are Republican Beth Van Duyne, Democrat Candace Valenzuela, Libertarian Darren Hamilton and another independent candidate, Stephen Kuzmich.

Incumbent Republican Kenny Marchant is not seeking reelection.

The 24th District straddles Dallas and Tarrant counties and covers cities or parts of cities including Grapevine, Hurst, Euless, Bedford, Irving, Coppell and Carrollton.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article245088525.html

[Coop]

Excellent info, thanks!

[Betty Jane]

Upstate New York 22. Tenney (R) vs Brindisi (D) It covers these Counties: Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Madison, Oneida and Oswego, Utica, and a southeast sliver of Tioga. Largest cities are Utica and Binghamton, in Broome.

My parents’ district. I’ll try to get their feelings on the ground, but they’re not involved as they usually are.

2016
Claudia Tenney (R) won with 129,444-114,266, with a 3rd Party (Upstate Jobs Party) candidate 34,638

2018
Claudia Tenney (R) 123,242
Anthony Brindisi (D) 127,715

2020 is a rematch with a Libertarian and a Independent on the ballot.

[JBW1949]

Biden is a temporary “placeholder” for the democrats in my opinion...The hidden powers of the leftist democrats know who they want running things...If President Trump loses, it will definitely be through fraud and we’ll be in a world of sh*t....

[Betty Jane]

The NY 22 district went 54-39 for Trump in 2016.

Utica is in Oneida County.

[Coop]

Good info, thank you

[Vitesse]

This a lot of false hopes and wacky weed.

Clearly Trump would win a fair election. He’s demonstrably the best President in my lifetime since Reagan. And the American people know it as is evidenced by 30k showing up for a Trump rally and 6-10 people (not k) for Joementia’s carefully controlled media-op/infomercials.

However, the reality is the mail-in fraud - doesn’t matter. The corrupt courts allowing “ballot” counting for days and weeks after Election Day. Figure out exactly how many mail in ballots they need to “find” to win.

It’s all a sham now. Bienvenidos a Venezuela!

[Vitesse]

Add the court packing and abolishing the filibuster, any student of history knows where this leads.

At least I have my COVID stash of TP to get me through the first few months of a Harris presidency before TSHFT. Literally. Lol

[RetiredArmy]

There are some great black women candidates out there for the republicans that are solid conservatives. I have seen them on Newsmax TV a couple of times. Really great speakers. Sorry I don’t remember their names.

[RetiredArmy]

She has lost it before, we need to take it back and keep the Senate so that Mr. Trump will have some reprieve from the commies. Perhaps we can pressure the stinking House under our control to pass stuff that Trump wants and we NEED to get this nation back on line and keep the Marxist’s from further gains. Pack the Court, why the hell can’t we do it if we get the Senate. Let Trump grow the Court to 15 and pack in solid conservatives. THAT would drive the Commies crazy.

[Eleutheria5]

What’s needed is a rural strategy to energize the countryside so they counter weigh the big cities, and an urban strategy for the big cities themselves. One thing they’re probably fed up with is the lawlessness, and we have one legendary ex-mayor of one of the biggest cities in the world who could spearhead a strategy aimed at that in all the once-beautiful cities that have become literal sh!tholes. It’s for another year, while we have Trump in his second term, but it’s more than the Washington swamp needs draining.

[MplsSteve]

In Minnesota’s 7th District, we have a good chance at knocking off incumbent Dem Colin Peterson

He’s been in office since 1990 and is Chair of the House Agriculture Committee. He really once was a fairly moderate Democrat in his voting. But in the last 10 years, his record has gotten more liberal and his winning margins have decreased.

The 7th District voted for Trump very strongly in 2016 and is trending more conservative with each election cycle.

We have a top notch candidate in former state senator and Lt Governor Michelle Fischbach. For those you out there who are looking to drop a $20 or more on a very plausible chance to flip a seat, go to her website:

www.fischbachforcongress.com

On a side note, I know of a very worthy conservative guy who’s running for state rep in my district. He’s trying to defeat a first term Democrat who won this normally GOP seat in 2018. Freepmail me if you want more info.

[Coop]

I'm curious. In your less than three months on this site have you ever had anything constructive to offer, or do you simply post drivel to tear others down?

You're exactly the kind of person I had in mind when posting this thread.
State of the 2020 election