State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

[Coop]

There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.

At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.

As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊

GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.

The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).

House Democrats in Districts Won by Trump
State/District	2016 Trump Margin	Cook Rating	Republican Candidate
AZ-01	4 pts	R+2	Tiffany Shedd
GA-06	1.5 pts	R+8	Karen Handel
IL-14	< 4 pts	R+5	Jim Oberweis
IL-17	0.7 pts	D+3	Esther J. King*
IA-01	3.5 pts	D+1	Ashley Hinson
IA-02 (open)	4 pts	D+1	Mariannette Miller-Meeks*
IA-03	3.5 pts	R+1	Former Rep. David Young
ME-02	>10 pts	R+2	Dale Crafts
MI-08	<7 pts	R+4	Paul Junge
MI-11	>3 pts	R+4	Eric Esshaki
MN-02	>1 pt	R+2	Tyler Kistner*
MN-07	<31 pts	R+12	LtGov Michelle Fischbach
NV-03	1 pt	R+2	”Big Dan” Rodimer
NH-01	1.6 pts	R+2	Matt Mowers
NJ-03	>6 pts	R+2	David Richter
NJ-05	1 pt	R+3	Frank Pallotta
NJ-11	<1 pt	R+3	Rosemary Becchi
NM-02	~10 pts	R+6	Yvette Herrell
NY-11	<10 pts	R+3	Nicole Malliotakis
NY-19	<7 pts	R+2	Kyle Van De Water*
NY-22	<15 pts	R+6	Former Rep. Claudia Tenney
OK-05	~13 pts	R+10	Stephanie Bice
PA-08	<10 pts	???	Jim Bognet
PA-17	2.6 pts	???	Sean Parnell*
SC-01	13 pts	R+10	Nancy Mace
UT-04	<7 pts	R+13	NFL player Burgess Owens
VA-02	3.4 pts	R+3	Former Rep. Scott Taylor*
VA-07	6.5 pts	R+6	Nick Freitas*
WI-03	4.5 pts	Even	Derrick Van Orden*

House Republicans in Districts Won by Clinton
State/District	2016 Trump Margin	Cook Rating	Republican Candidate
NY-24	-3.6 pts	D+3	Rep. John Katko
PA-01	-2 pts	D+2	Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick
TX-23 (open)	-3.4 pts	R+1	Tony Gonzales*

* = military veteran

Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.

What can you do to help retire Nancy?

• Donate your time – either in person or by making calls from anywhere in the U.S. (maybe even globally – I’m not really sure). Contact your preferred campaign(s).
• Donate some $$. It doesn’t need to be much. Even a small donation pays for some bumper stickers/signs and shows the candidates they’re not alone.
• Share this thread and/or specific candidate info & links with friends and family.
• As mentioned earlier, please add additional competitive races to this thread.
• Pitch in a few bucks to the FReepathon.

Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.

If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.

[LS]

It would be really helpful if every Freeper in a contested House district would chime in, with their state, the district, the two candidates, and where, in their estimation, their race is.

[Coop]

It would be really helpful if every Freeper in a contested House district would chime in, with their state, the district, the two candidates, and where, in their estimation, their race is.

Yeah. Maybe you'll have better luck than me. This thread went over like a lead balloon.

[LS]

Here in this board we have to have people in at least 20 contested districts.

[Impy]

Nearly lost in 2018 and I think there were way more rat primary votes this year. Romney’s numbers are ancient history, unfortunately. Atlanta suburbs are turning to the dark side.

[edh]

My mistake. The City of Pittsburgh proper certainly belongs to Doyle (I say that intentionally ... That fish faced jagoff will own that seat forever). Lamb got the northern suburbs.

I was trying to say that they gerrymandered a lot of Allegheny County into Lamb’s district to offset the more conservative areas like Beaver and Butler County.

Lamb has to lose. If not, he’s going to run for Senate in 2022 and win ... Western PA buys his crap hook, line, and sinker. I’m sure the rest of the state will fall for it (the fact that Casey Jr., one of the laziest pieces of crap to ever sit in the US Senate, won again on his dad’s name and continues to vote lockstep with liberals).

I have to quit making posts on my phone ... I screw up too much and can’t easily review what I write :-).

[AuH2ORepublican]

I’m worried about GA-07 because (i) Woodall was not scandal-tarred yet barely won it in 2018 (less than a 0.5% victory margin IIRC) and (ii) the Dem turnout in the primary was much higher than the GOP turnout. But I agree that we have a great candidate in GA-07 (as well as in TX—23), and I am certainly not writing it off. Given our recent performance in those formerly safe suburban Atlanta CDs, I would not be surprised if we failed to hold GA-07 and didn’t win back GA-06 either. We can win both races, but we just as easily could lose them both.

[AuH2ORepublican]

The Democrat nominee in TX-23, Gina Ortiz Jones, is a lesbian Iraq War veteran of Filipino ancestry who came close to beating Hurd in 2018. The TX-23 is majority Mexican-American, and I hope that tge GOP is oointing out that, despite Jones’s middle name, she is not Hispanic, much less Mexican-American, while Gonzales is a local Mexican American who made good, serving with distinction in both Afganistan and Iraq.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I knew what you meant (Democrat-trending Pittsburgh suburbs, not Pittsburgh proper), and my intent was to explain in my post why your argument still holds despite the city itself being in Doyle’s CD.

Remember when Doyle first was elected, in Santorum’s old Mon Valley CD? Doyle was pro-life back then! After he got redisricted in with Coyne (who retired) in a Pittsburgh/Mon Valley CD, though, Doyle switched to pro-abortion. That was back when the PA U.S. House delegation had 7 pro-life Democrats and only 4 pro-abortion Democrats.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Impy, I hadn’t seen your post when I replied to Coop, so, like Newton when he developed calculus without a clue that Leipniz was doing the same thing across the pond, the fact that I wrote oretty much the same thing that you did is an example of great minds thinking alike, not of me pulling a Biden. : )

[Coop]

Nearly lost in 2018

Yep, but it wasn't a presidential election. Guess we'll see in about 3 weeks.

[Coop]

10/11/2020: Portland protesters topple statues of Theodore Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln in ‘Day of Rage’; police declare riot

In OR-04, after years of nominating a rather odd candidate, this time around the GOP has nominated a National Guardsman combat veteran who helped to stop a terrorist on a Paris train in 2015. Alek Skarlatos*

OR-04 encompasses southwestern OR, while Portland is OR-03. Trump lost the state by 10.6 points in 2016, but given the insanity in Portland I think OR is going to be competitive this time around. I was in OR 2+ months ago, and there was a lot of disgust with the Democrats. And that was before the governor completely botched the wildfire response. Both parties are spending money on OR-04, meaning both sides view it as competitive.

Trump lost this district four years ago by a mere 1/10 of a point.

[Missouri gal]

Nice work and great discussion. Saw Joe Collins’ ad yesterday and he looks great against Mad Maxine Waters, but what are his prospects?

I also would like to hear about the senate races.

[Liz]

Thanks for the h/u.

[Liz]

The contrast between the two parties was never more stark:
<><> Democrats paint a picture of a country you’d want to flee –
<><> Democrats want to impose a racist hellhole built on oppression,
<><> Democrats resurrect a frightening Adolf Hitler Jr. regime w/ BLM/ANTIFA the storm troopers.
<><> Democrats are just lying in wait for the chance to seize absolute power.

And in the bgrnd are sperminator Hunter and the rest of the money-hungry Biden clan,
all lined up to loot and pillage the govt till, and kick taxpayers into perpetual poverty.

And it’s all done with
(A) a toothy smile from candidate Biden,
(B) regular reassurances from Nanzi and the Dem crowd.....
(C) all of it to be accomplished by the “certified dependability” of mail-in voting.
(H/T Derek Hunter)

[Drango]

If you can’t donate, please doorbell or work for a call bank. Everyone can do something.

[Coop]

I wrote a bit about the Senate races in this thread. I'm probably not doing a separate thread for Senate.

[CPT Clay]

TX-24 is an open seat

[Coop]

Details please

[Coop]

Amen. My old legs are sore today. Did about three hours walking neighborhoods yesterday, dropping off campaign literature.

[Liz]

.....these bode well for Trump and Republicans......:

In 1998, Republicans were expected to win seats in Congress following Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection.......
but, Republicans spent 100% of their time obsessing on Clinton’s Lewinsky affair and impeachment.....
ergo, we lost seats and Newt resigned as Speaker. We lost because
<><> we pissed off Democrats by our non-stop Clinton attacks,
<><> we offered our own voters NOTHING to vote for.

Democrats are doing the same thing: their attacks on Trump do nothing but fire up the Republican
base......Dems have offered NOTHING of substance to blacks and other voters as a whole.

Even “hair”brained Nanzi backed off a 2nd Trump impeachment try;
she knows it would harm her voter fraud projects to get the Hidey-Ho ticket elected.