Finally, an accurate poll?

Americanthinker ^ | October 06 2020 | Michael Bertolone

[SmokingJoe]

Everyone remembers the wildly inaccurate predictions of a Hillary Clinton landslide right up through the morning of Election Day 2016. The New York Times confidently predicted Clinton with an 85 percent chance of winning. Reuters gave Clinton a 90 percent chance, and ABC News gave her a 95 percent chance of being elected president. (You can see more of those inaccurate polls here.)

I suspect the polls were biased, in part, and their methodology was obsolete. Also, there may have been some trickery at work with Trump voters deliberately deceiving pollsters.

SNIP

One Gallup polling question may be shedding light on this phenomenon. When asked who will win the election, voters responded as follows (emphasis added):

Majority of Americans Predict Trump Will Win Reelection

Regardless of whom they personally support, 56% of Americans expect Trump to prevail over Biden in the November election, while 40% think Biden will win. Although majorities of partisans think their party's candidate will win, Republicans are more likely to believe Trump will win (90%) than Democrats are to think Biden will (73%). Fifty-six percent of independents predict that Trump will win.

With this type of question, voters may let their guards down and provide a truthful answer. Since the pollster didn’t ask for whom they were voting, Trump voters may feel more at ease by subtly providing their real voting preference to a stranger via this indirect phrasing of the question. Since Antifa and other far-left groups have actively doxxed and attacked Trump supporters, it makes sense that these voters would hesitate to answer the straightforward “Who are you voting for” question truthfully.

[SmokingJoe]

Gallup is not the only accurate poll this week. We have the Daily Express/Democracy Institute poll which has Trump leading and comfortably taking the electoral college. The IBD, Zogby and Rasmussen all have it essentially tied as well.
As for the NBC 14 point poll, it belongs strictly to the fantasy garbage fiction department.

[central_va]

I order for biased pollsters to maintain any credibility the closer we get to election day the polls have to start reflecting reality.

[SmokingJoe]

For the most part, yes.
But true far left believers like NBC who are totally consumed by hate for Trump are going to go down with the fake polls Titanic.
They'd much rather lose face than not go flat out to suppress Trump voter turn out. Also, they want to create the narrative that Biden is far ahead so they can use that to stir up a civil war when Trump wins.
Nothing is beyond America's biggest enemy, which is the fake news media.

[bert]

Incumbents get reelected

Former vice Presidents almost never win

[bert]

Incumbents get reelected

Former vice Presidents almost never win

[PeteB570]

Got another phone poll yesterday. Push button one this time.

Think it’s the 4th or so I’ve answered this season.

Always tell the truth - straight Republican.

[HighSierra5]

We used to say that the only poll that matters is election day. This year I’m not so sure. And that says it mildly.

[RinaseaofDs]

Polling would return more to it’s scientific basis if pollsters wore bomb collars.

On election day, if your poll is off by more than 4 points, it goes off.

We’d get accurate polling quickly.

For those that may think pollsters being made to wear bomb collars is over the top, consider that Roger Stone is in jail and Hillary breathes free air.

I am all for dismantling the FBI and CIA, as soon as possible.

[central_va]

I am all for dismantling the FBI and CIA, as soon as possible.

Yes, ASAP.

[HighSierra5]

I thought Roger was out?

[Jagdgewehr]

I’m beginning to think the concept of credibility means nothing to a great many folks these days. Particularly, those on the left side of the political spectrum.

[SmokingJoe]

Very, very rare for incumbents to lose. The only incumbent to lose after one term by his party since 1932 would be Jimmy Carter. Bush Snr was the third term of Reagan and the GOP.
And Trump has done more in his first term than any president in recent memory..
Having aid that, the coronavirus makes this an unusual year.

[central_va]

We need to take a poll of the pollsters.

[AndyJackson]

I order for biased pollsters to maintain any credibility the closer we get to election day the polls have to start reflecting reality.

You got Biden wrong by 17% and you want me to pay you to find out whether my customers will prefer Kiwi or Key Lime Kool Aide? Why would I do that?

[central_va]

No, that is not the game. See the polls magically “tighten up” 2 days before any election. Happens every time and we fall for it.

[RinaseaofDs]

He is.

Arrested (dragged from his home), tried, convicted, jailed, pardoned, then released.

Hillary’s just chillin’, in that same period of time.

[Gene Eric]

>> Gallup is not the only accurate poll this week

You believe an aggregate of the most favorable polls best represents the outcome?

[silent majority rising]

I am sick and tired of polls. They are crap, based on crap, and tabulated by crappy people who make a dishonest living. Polls are crap, period. When are WE the people going to send a message to these ‘geniuses’ that they can “poll” themselves in places where ‘polls’ reside (in their backsides).

[CincyRichieRich]

Tied, seriously??? Accurate??? When our side hangs up 90% of the time, then the pollsters fill the gape like your power company does when they can’t read your meter. Just stop, think. Can you please prove they actually call people?

[SmokingJoe]

Yes.
The most accurate polls were right in 2016. The fake news polls like the ABC/Washington Post poll which had Hilary Clinton winning by a massive 12% with just over a week to go, missed it by a mile.
Look back in history, when is the last time anyone, let alone an incumbent, lost by 14 points like NBC is claiming? I am going to ignore all fake news polls. Just go out and vote in person.