That doesn’t count the 15% margin of error for corrupted MSM polling, and people who avoid pollsters, or lie to them outright.
The trend is your friend
So, Trump wins there, then.
A few times last week I heard the clip of Biden saying that if men can get coal out of mines, they can learn to do programming (assume he meant computer coding). What an ahole.
Wolf is doing his part to make sure Trump prevails in this state... I think it is hidden from them of how angry rural PA is. They make their edicts that they do not keep and pretend to care while inflicting pain on their constituents.
How heavy did they oversample Dems?
I walk my dog twice a day and know all most all of the people {at least by sight} and talk with many.
There are 12 Trump signs and flags and one biden sign.
In 2016 there were two homes that had Trump signs, mine and one brave lady {she listens to Rush}, but I knew that there were many other Trumpers, they just didn't want to advertise it.
This cycle has brought out many Trumpers with their backs up and every one on them owns guns.
I know because we talk about the riots and what would we do if...
The Jackals have woke the sleeping lions.
Which is why Biden is now lying and trying to claim that he never said he wanted to ban fracking.
” The Monmouth University poll of 400 registered voters in Pennsylvania was conducted Aug. 28-Aug. 31 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.”
That is good news for Trump. Likely voter polls are both more accurate and more favorable to Republicans. So this poll underestimates Trump’s actual poll numbers.
If anyone knows the D-R-I split they should post it. That is the common way these polls cheat in favor of the Dems.
I feel good about NC, MN, AZ, WI, Iowa and Michigan.
I think things look good in Pennsylvania and Florida. Obviously if Trump was those states it’s a massive blowout.
Monmouth poll is a joke and has been since I can remember. should never even be reported on, because it is that big of a joke.
I’m a data guy so for fun I performed a simple analysis using the latest registration numbers of PA and compared them to 2016.
Basically, I determined the percentage vote county by county that Trump and Hillary received by Reps and Dems, respectively, then applied those same percentages to the latest registration numbers. Which, by the way, Reps have gained 157,420 over Dems since 2016.
So if the same percentages hold with the updated registration numbers, Trump would win by 148,547 votes. Trump won by 44,292 votes in 2016.
I’m in a large college town and there is a surprisingly low number of Biden signs, compared to the large # of Hillary in ‘16. Sprinkled in w/ a few Trump signs is an unusual # of people flying the American flag. They are Trumpers, IMHO, who would rather not put a sign in their lawn.
Statistical Tie = Trump is ahead
Monmouth University is right up the street from me, a ten minute drive. Their polls have always oversampled RATs.
While it is an improvement over their prior poll, a 49-46 result with a 4.9% MOE results in a 76% probability of the leader actually winning, which is hardly a "tie."
However, in my model this poll does increase President Trump's probability of winning Pennsylvania from 6.6% to 11.7%.
-PJ
The Economist/YouGov poll is 1,500 adults that is a whopping D+15! They show Biden 51-40.
The Investor's Business Daily poll is not releasing internals. TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence shifted to an online poll amid the coronavirus pandemic. TechnoMetrica President Raghavan Mayur notes, "Panel samples are convenience samples and are not probability samples and hence the concept of margin of error does not apply."
The Rasmussen demographics are behind a paywall.
I guess we'll have to wait for more state polls.
-PJ
By high turnout they mean the black turnout, which is not going to happen for Biden
Means PT is up by 2.