Posted on 09/01/2020 11:40:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Possible, sure, but color me still somewhat unconvinced even after a compelling analysis from FiveThirtyEights Nathaniel Rakich. Donald Trump dismantled the blue wall in 2016, winning the previously unwinnable Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania even if just by a whisker in all three. Rakich points out that Trump came closer than any Republican in decades four years ago in flipping Minnesota, and that the state has gotten more Republican at the same time:
Minnesota is much more evenly divided than that record suggests: For example, it came within a couple percentage points of voting for now-President Trump in 2016. And as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin which voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012 showed in 2016, streaks are meant to be broken.
Most ominously for Democrats, there is evidence that Minnesota is becoming redder over time, with 2016 being a particular inflection point. In 1984, the state was 18.2 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. But in 2016, for the first time since 1952, Minnesota voted more Republican than the rest of the U.S.
But in recent elections, Democrats pro-environment and anti-gun positions have alienated these voters in places like the Iron Range, an ancestrally Democratic mining region, and in 2016 Trump was able to tap into their racial and economic grievances as well. Democrats went from carrying Minnesota by 7.7 points in 2012 to carrying it by just 1.5 in 2016. Tellingly, the counties that shifted the most toward Trump were also the counties with the highest concentrations of white people without a college degree.
Nor is Rakich the only one seeing a potential win in Minnesota. Robert Stacy McCain senses change in the wind in the Land of Sky Blue Water, or at the very least sees anxiety in Democrats about those prospects:
538 buys a clue. We’ve been saying that since the 2016 election.
Like Washington in 1776, Trump has the countryside, like the British...Biden has the cities, and the Battle of Yorktown is coming up next for all the marbles.
I am starting to think NY is in play too.
There are at least 15 Trump signs/flags in my Minnesota neighborhood and only one Biden sign that says “Vote For Creepy Uncle Joe”. This is my Trump display.
Biden may not be physically up to the task to visit MN and many other states. Trump is going to run him into the ground. As for Kamala, that ho isn't the type to visit a Lutheran Church for pot luck night with lutefisk and hotpots. Talk about culture shock. She does not fit in the upper mid-west.
Blacks did not turn out for Hillary because (wait for this amazingly brilliant analysis :-) )....Hillary was not black.
Biden has the same problem... :-)
538 sh!ts the bed on political history, it's called that cause the MN democrats merged with the separate Farmer-Labor party in 1944. Farmer-Labor had been the main leftist party in the state after their founding in 1918, the democrats were weak and came in third for Governor in every election from 1918 until the merger (expect in 1936 when they didn't even run a candidate).
RE: Blacks did not turn out for Hillary because (wait for this amazingly brilliant analysis :-) )....Hillary was not black.
But he has a “Black” running mate. Will that help? (since we are all about race instead of competence now ).
You forgot to put an opening ‘<’ tag on your img HTML.
I’ve noticed Nate Silver and the crew over at Fivethirtyeight are being a lot more cautious this time after being relentlessly mocked for giving Hillary a 71% chance of winning on election day 2016. The only thing the meter says at their website now is “Joe Biden - Slight Favorite”. They apparently have done away with percentages entirely.
Ed Morrissey has a sad.
RE: Ed Morrissey has a sad.
He resides in Minnesota if I’m not mistaken.
Kamala is one eighth black and her father is from Jamaica and she is married to a white guy and as attorney general of CA threw lots of black folks in jail for drug offenses—hardly the “black vote getter” ideal candidate...
Not just a white guy, but a Joooooo!
Can’t believe the home of the Minnesota Vikings doesn’t feel an affinity with Trump.
And didn’t Bret Farve recently play a round of golf with Trump?
Were those the ones 'found' in the trunk of a car?
He would have won there last time if there wasn’t so much voter fraud.
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