States scramble as low census response rates threaten political power

The Hill ^ | August 11, 2020 - 06:00 AM EDT | BY REID WILSON

[11th_VA]

With just weeks until the Census Bureau faces a critical deadline to finish counting 330 million Americans, cities and states are racing to get through to hard-to-reach communities who risk being left out of the final tally.

At stake are billions of dollars through hundreds of federally administered programs - and political power for the next decade. Some states are so close to the cutoff point at which they would earn or lose a House seat in the apportionment that will come from census figures that just a few thousand missing people could mean a smaller congressional delegation.

"The census has gone from being extremely important to now critically urgent," said California Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D). "It determines our level of representation in Congress for the next decade and the amount of federal funding coming to each community for the next decade."

Demographers and redistricting experts working for both Democratic and Republican groups model population gains based on yearly census data to estimate which states are in line to gain or lose seats every 10 years. Current models suggest Sun Belt states and two fast-growing western states, Montana and Oregon, are in line to add seats, at the expense of Rust Belt states and California and Alabama.

But those models assume a perfect count. As the Census Bureau prepares to launch an abbreviated in-person count Tuesday, a count that the Trump administration has said will only last through the end of September - ending a month earlier than usual - demographers now say states with the lowest response rates might be at risk of losing out even more.

New York, Texas and Florida - all of which lag behind the national response rate - are most at risk of falling short.

[11th_VA]

Perfect storm for a census year ...

[eastexsteve]

I wonder if these are the same "communities" that magically produce democrat mail-in ballots at the last minute.

[Caipirabob]

States scramble as low ACTUALcensus response rates threaten political power

[Moonman62]

New York, Texas and Florida - all of which lag behind the national response rate - are most at risk of falling short.

...

Also the states with high proportions of illegals.

[Gen.Blather]

“Also the states with high proportions of illegals.”

I have lost touch with my contact into the illegal community. He was a legitimate green card holder who followed all the rules. He hates illegals. They make it harder for him to get a legitimate job. He once had employment at a mushroom farm, but only after he told them he was illegal. He said they only hired illegals. (They are out of business now.)

Based on what he told me, the political left misreads the way Hispanics think about illegals. Some of his other thoughts on illegals were, they are largely the guys committing robberies and frauds.

[lasereye]

I would think CA has one of the highest percentages of illegals. It has to be higher than NY or FL.

[apillar]

I had an older fellow show up at my house for the census, I was a bit surprised as I had completed it online and kept a screen shot of the screen where it had been accepted. I showed him that I had already done it.

We started chatting after I told him I had worked for Federal Government. He said he had done temporary work for the census since 1990 and this year was an unmitigated disaster. Because of COVID 19, they had lost over half their normal temp staff because people were afraid to go door to door. He also said that with everything else going on in the country (COVID and the Riots) the census just wasn't on anyone's radar and response rates in many areas were as low as 30%, half what they had been in 2010. Then he said there were issues with the online function like the one I had encountered where people responded but in never registered.

He said in his opinion they should just scrap the whole thing, wait a year or two until the situation in country stabilizes, then try again.

[Texas Fossil]

Texas is likely to pick up three seats in the next round of apportionment, according to Brace’s calculations. But those final seats are on a razor’s edge, and undercounts in either state could limit their gains.

Texas has had huge population increase, and influx of temporary workers for construction projects. And I think the Covid19 mess has caused many people who can work remotely to look at smaller towns. It has complicated the landscape.

[mewzilla]

And with a really po’d citizenry.

[polymuser]

Illegals having healthy fear of our current President.

I’m sure D’rats want to personally canvas those areas (and drop off ballot instructions, while they’re visiting).

[Pollster1]

I feel obligated to respond to the Census - at least so far as number of persons, ages, and male/female. The rest of that nonsense is none of their business.

I do not feel obligated to allow my response to count for the People’s Republic of Maryland. If there were a way to, for example, choose the day I fill my census out so that my residence under the census definition on that date is in another state, I would have recognized that and made it happen.

[Pontiac]

Current models suggest Sun Belt states and two fast-growing western states, Montana and Oregon, are in line to add seats, at the expense of Rust Belt states and California and Alabama.

California’s Gov. Newsom to his staff. “Start a daily bus service down to Mexico and get me some more Mexicans up here NOW!”

[dgbrown]

Sounds like they fluffed the numbers before and can’t figure out how to do it again without getting caught.

[hardspunned]

I’m sure the census is run by long term uniparty swamp apparatchiks. I’m surprised they don’t just make up whatever numbers they want every census. Who’s going to catch and prosecute them, the long term uniparty swamp apparatchiks running DOJ?

[Blueflag]

All depends on who fills out the forms, eh?

[2CAVTrooper]

Well here in Alabama, they’re saying we’ll lose a house seat which if that happens I hope race baiting poverty pimping demshevik Terry Sewer err Sewell gets squeezed out.

[Moonman62]

Based on what he told me, the political left misreads the way Hispanics think about illegals. Some of his other thoughts on illegals were, they are largely the guys committing robberies and frauds.

...

Maybe the political left loves illegals for some reason other than pandering to Hispanics.

[Vigilanteman]

And somehow it is the fault of Republicans that derelicts, illegal aliens and other core Democrat constituencies don’t respond to repeated efforts by the Census Bureau to count them.

[SunkenCiv]

The Demagogic Party always fights hardest to be in power when the census results are in and they can gerrymander the country to manufacture a majority in the House. That's the best argument I can think of for the Second Amendment.

[EBH]

Keep in mind that this year’s count is supposed to help with redistricting. But if people are leaving the cities...then it really changes the whole demographics.

I would think a low census participation would be bad for the democrats. There are a lot of moving pieces in this year and none of them favor the democrats.