Recently folks have focused on the people who have to retest until they are deemed all clear in order to go back to work. some folks are presuming each test is recorded as a positive test and a defacto new case, until they get the all clear. I don't honestly know they aren't retested and considered an already active case. That may be the case. Then again, maybe not.
Some of the testing statistics I have looked at warn that many of the positive results are due to repeat testing. This makes sense, when considering that the purpose of testing is both to diagnose and to monitor whether a person is still shedding virus. What this means is that the repeat positives are accounted for, so that only new cases are reported.
I urge folks to look at the numbers, read up on situations like this and realize what you are looking at is the best anyone can produce right now in the way of numbers.
When you deal with any kind of data collection, you have to be aware that not all data is reported at the same rate. Some labs might report daily, others might report weekly. Some data takes more effort to collect than other data--for example, Covid-19 deaths have to be confirmed with laboratory testing, which can take a while. Because of the inherent uncertainties, the CDC warns that reportable disease table data are provisional until finalized about 10 months after the end of the year.
Folks, I've never heralded the testing negatives here. I had alwys thought folks were smart enough to realize all the tests given minus the posities would be the the level of negatives. Maybe I was too optimistic.
I will say here that there are countless times I have carefully explained things with data and calculations that clearly demonstrate what I have explained and seen my explanations fly over people's heads. Many people simply do not understand mathematics.
As for positive and negative testing, the only reason to keep track of negative testing in the case of Covid-19 is to monitor the reach of testing. If a majority of cases are being identified, then performing more tests should result in a lower percentage of positive results. If performing more tests results in more positives, it means that an inadequate number of tests were previously being done.
So if the demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low, vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the end of the disease.
Fatalities are dropping, and that is a good thing. I think that the many interventional clinical trials that have been underway are panning out with good results that translate to clinical practices that are saving more lives. I know that when I listen to my local rock station, I frequently hear ads seeking people who have recovered from Covid-19 to donate serum to treat current Covid-19 patients--who knows how many lives have been saved by convalescent serum donations.
But as far as being immune from infection with Covid-19 once recovered, I wouldn't bet on it. Immunity to ordinary coronaviruses wanes within a few months, and antibodies against SARS-Cov2 seem to follow a similar pattern. A recent study showed that antibodies to Covid-19 wane rapidly, with people having "mild" cases having less robust antibody responses that wane to baseline after 60 days. Only some people with the most severe cases had antibodies that persisted to 94 days; the majority of survivors' antibody responses were undetectable by then. What this means for cellular immunity (memory B cells) is still under investigation. However, this study suggests that people remain susceptible to multiple Covid-19 infections. Also, antibodies against a virus aren't always protective...this is a complicated area and the details specific to Covid-19 are still being worked out.
This study highlights the fact that serology studies to look at past infection with SARS-CoV2 are useless. I have already pointed this out many times, on the basis that antibodies typically cannot distinguish between similar viruses (such as different strains of coronavirus); this study underscores my point from a different direction, in that antibodies against SARS-CoV2 do not persist.
Longitudinal evaluation and decline of antibody responses in SARS-CoV-2 infection
Seow J, Graham C, Merrick B, et al.
medRxiv 2020.07.09.20148429; doi:
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.09.20148429
I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.
During the week Jul 1 thru 7 there were an average 276 new covid hospitalizations each day.
During the week Jul 8 thru 14 there were an average 368 new covid hospitalizations each day.
Jul 15 = 491
Jul 16 = 366
Jul 17 = 441
Jul 18 = 339
Jul 19 = 292
Jul 20 = 517
We have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over four weeks.
We can conclude there is an increase in new hospitalizations for COVID infected patients. How this increase in new hospitalizations plays out is yet to be seen.
Given the fact that Florida has 62,000 hospital beds, the number of new hospitalizations of covid patients seems manageable.
Death rates in Florida are starting to creep higher.
Vaccine Information Page:
Perhaps this has been posted here before, but I just saw today...It is from NYT; however, but it is very informative regarding vaccine development...How many and which companies have candidates in various categories, and at which phase of clinical trials:
May need to have “account” w/NYT which requires an email, but I am interested in following this—good aggregator of vaccine information.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html?utm_source=morning_brew