we get them from internet leaks
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Posted on 07/18/2020 7:33:24 AM PDT by bray
Pollsters are nothing more than thoughtless lemmings,
merely plagiarizing the results.
A few are inventive, and create additional justifications.
no!! NO!!... keep “ braying and praying”.. :-))
I think “identity politics”, like all Democrat “issues”, is completely fake.
They talk about poverty, social justice, racism, BLM, climate change, Covid19, etc., but they don’t actually care about any of those things - they are just opportunities to create divisions, politically exploit and get elected.
Same with electing the first woman of color. They don’t give a crap about that - look at their primaries - it came down to two old white men! If anyone is racist it is the Democrats.
That’s not to say a woman of color won’t get elected - they will certainly run a woman of color - as soon as they find one they think can win or help the ticket. That’s what happened with Obama - he didn’t win because he was black - he won in spite of it.
Tourists are flying Trump flags here.
My God, I believe, I adore, I hope and I love Thee.
I beg mercy for those who do not believe, do not adore. do not hope and do not love Thee. Amen.
Thanks for the ping :-)
I stopped even doing that. My neighbor was calling him stupid and I let him have it. Not in a bad way but firmly.
Speaking of Debbie Downers, welcome. What are your reasons Biden is going to win other than voter fraud?
Ditto.
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Amen and Ditto
“That’s what happened with Obama - he didn’t win because he was black - he won in spite of it.”
Except for the above I agree with all you say. Obama won because he was black and a good part of the voting public was ashamed to NOT vote for him lest they feel racist.
Had a white man run instead of Obama and he had the identical experience, backround and policies they would have lost in a landslide.
1. Polls - I think they are likely to be more accurate this year. There are many reasons for this, the most important being weighting by education. The aggregate polls are showing a consistent and enduring 8-10% lead for Biden, as opposed to a 4-7% inconsistent lead for Clinton in 2016.
2. Low (less than 45%) approval ratings for POTUS.
3. Biden generates less animosity than Hillary Clinton, even among Republicans. He is consistently polling better among whites and particularly white men compared to Clinton.
Of course, a lot can change between now and November. The polls are a snapshot, not a predictor. If the polls are the same in late October as they are today, a big if, I am confident the GOP, led by Trump, will be obliterated in the election.
The shy Trump voter is an ameliorating factor in the above equation. There is no way to know how big this factor is. It would have to be of an unprecedented magnitude (6-8 million votes missed by the polls) for it to be dispositive.
Being black was just one part of a package that propelled Obama to victory:
He was black (sort of).
He ran as a Democrat.
He was young.
He could talk and act just like a prep school white if he wanted to.
He was a clean slate - no history - no records - no legislation - perceived as a Washington DC outsider.
Just being black would have gotten him exactly nowhere, if he hadn’t also had those other “qualifications”.
If just being black did the trick then Condoleezza Rice or Ben Carson would have been elected President :-)
It’s not even enough to be black and a Democrat, or we would have had a President Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton.
Even being black, young, a Democrat, and talk-like-a-white-preppy isn’t enough - the key was that Obama somehow managed to come out of nowhere with a clean slate.
The next Obama (dream Democrat candidate) may or may not be black.
Why do you think the polls are any better when you have caller ID on every phone and the same people running them?
Biden is a worse candidate than Hilary and she had the first woman going for her. You are no different than the Negative people I dealt with in sports and your subjective analysis.
All Trump supporters have to do is get to the polls in November and Trump will get a second term.
Thanks for the question.
Those facts (caller ID etc.) have been true for a while. And yet, polls have been correct in the 2010 Congressional elections, 2012 Presidential and Congressional elections, 2014 Congressional elections, and 2018 Congressional elections.
Only 2016 was an aberration.
I continue to believe that aggregate polls (not an individual poll) reflect the reality of the electorate more accurately than sentiment on this site.
The media are such IDIOTS by showing Trump down in double digits they are DRIVING Trump supporters to the polls in droves!! I hope they keep it up it is having the exact opposite effect Trump supporters will crawl over broken glass then HOT coals to vote for Trump, Bite me supporters wont do the same SO if they think he is that far ahead they will be as lazy as they usually are and just skip the whole voting thing!!
I was in NYC on Election Day 2016 and walked by the Javits Center that afternoon. It was a celebratory atmosphere. All those Clinton supporters were so smug and sure of themselves having a big party that night. After all, every media outlet was giving her a 98% chance of winning that morning!
No wonder they were so devastated and in tears just hours later. How I wish I had stayed in the city that night just to stand outside the Fox News building and watch the results come in on the big screens outside - and be a part of history.
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