COVID-19 Upate - 07/07/2020

My own workup | 07/07/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 111

As of 07/06/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Very Low Fatality Numbers Coming In

The Fatalities for yesterday were very low again, even though they were 19.08%
higher than the numbers from the Monday the week before.

I think that's worth noting as we attempt to assess the overall situation in light
higher New Cases. One up day is not worth getting worried over. The number for
yesterday (412) was still a very low number. We'll keep our eyes on it.

Declared New Cases in the U. S., Tops the 3 Million Mark

The total number of Declared Cases in the United States was 3,041035 at the end of
the day yesterday PDST. At the same time, it is important to focus on the number
of Active Cases. That number was 1,581,988 at the end of the day. 47.979% of all
Declared Cases have been resolved.

I mention the 3 million figure, because it is a milestone, but the important thing
is the number of deaths being reported. They are so low that the CDC reveals that
they are having a hard time classifying COVID-19 as even an epidemic at this point,
let alone a pandemic. Ouch! That'll put water in the eyes of a Leftist...

China Decides to Play the 'Who Did the Most Testing Game?"

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a comparison.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

Yesterday saw the single highest number of New Declared Cases in the United States,
to date. Interestingly, it may not matter at all. If Fatalities remain as low
as they have been this last month this Pandemic is soon to be downgraded to a
tropical storm.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active cases continue to climb.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

This is bouncing up and down as I predicted a few days back. We've got very
large levels of New Declared Cases, so our slice of the global pie is growing.
We still seem to find a way to go negative every other day or so.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.

Look at that postive percentage yesterday. My gut feeling on that is that it
is not good, but then seeing more of the herd have contracted and beaten the
disease is essentially good. We'll see how it plays out.

Crossing our fingers for low Fatalities.

Not sure how the postive rates swing over 2.0% up from one day to the next. We'll
see what happens today, how the rate swings.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

These seemed to be getting closer each day, but the Active Case line is veering
ever so slightly away from the Recovery line.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Another high day globally.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

For your review...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

Nice to see these numbers drift lower, if only for a short period. Still too
high though.

New Case both globally and domestically rose yesterday. Again, as long as
Fatalities remain on the lower end of the spectrum, that's good. Yesterday's
Fatality figure was very good.

These charts are now not only seeing growth internationally, but domestically
as well.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

Global Active Cases fell off yesterday. The single day figure is heading every
which way.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Hard to miss the correction in the direction of the U. K. there. I double checked
the data, and the correction has been sustained for the last day and a half.
It is accurate. Unless a correction occurs, the U. K. just changed
direction.

The U. K. line there is quite similar to France's line over a month ago.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Some good and bad there. Remember, our testing was again at a new level of
testing we've been in for about 12 days now, but actually a bit lower yesterday
compared to recent days.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.005% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

Looks like we're closing in on 62% of global Declared Cases being Resolved.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

For your review...

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

US Fatalities continue to remain in sub-1,000 territory.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

In the lasts 31 days, we have looked very good in this area. I'm not sure we've
had even one clean count day over 1,000 out of those 30 days. Here we are looking
as our most recent three days under 500.

New York, New Jersey, I'm sure you'll have a very hard time figuring out where
they botched things... /s We had a little mini-event just after New Jersey also.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

We're still slipping here, but globlly yesterday was a good day. The number of
Active Cases fell off substantially globally. There was a huge wave of Resolved
Cases that crashed down on yesterday.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with massive numbers.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Those numbers are pretty impressive, but if Fatalities remain low, the Herd
Immunity folks will score points. Let's see how it goes.

Note that these new daily records this week, with the exception of Wednesday's
numbers, are outpacing the previous week by lesser amounts. Looking at that
chart, I think it's clear that is a big change from one to two weeks ago.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

We came in at 25th again on the Testing per million scale yesterday. That's our
lowest standing yet.

Progress...

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[2aProtectsTheRest]

7-day moving average in the US has leveled off at about 517 deaths per day (7-day average at 518 on July 4, 516 July 5, 517 July 6).

Here’s hoping that the trend toward decline resumes quickly. >500 per day is far too many souls lost. President Trump indicated a vaccine may be pretty close. That would be a godsend, both for the country and for the President’s reelection.

[rfp1234]

Over 800 today. That may be due to catching up to delays in counting from the holiday weekend.

[gas_dr]

There was a big load out of Arizona — suspect that was back processing — today is usually the high water mark for deaths in a week. We will see. But if infections are levelling off, I think we may be at apex — that would be good.

There was a very good analysis earlier today with detailed analysis that says we may be at apex and heading back down — that is my feeling as well. I spoke with some of my colleagues, it seems that we were steeply accelerating the last couple weeks but seem to be slowing a little

[IrishBrigade]

‘>500 per day is far too many souls lost.’

7500 people on average die per day in the US; are you suggesting these 500 is on top of that, and not part of that number...?

because if you are, you would be wrong...

[Presbyterian Reporter]

I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.

Jul 2 = 341
Jul 3 = 244
Jul 4 = 160
Jul 5 = 150
Jul 6 = 380

Even though we have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over two weeks, we are not seeing any sort of increase in hospitalizations for COVID infected patients.

I will continue tracking the COVID hospitalization numbers to see if there are any changes.

If other states are reporting covid hospitalizations, it would be good to post the data from those states.

Here is the link to the source document:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””I think that’s worth noting as we attempt to assess the overall situation in light
higher New Cases. One up day is not worth getting worried over. The number for
yesterday (412) was still a very low number.”””

---

Worldometer reported 378 new deaths yesterday. Where WOM found the other 32 deaths to add to their total death count is unknown.

Maybe WOM wanted to make up for the 37 deaths that un-died on July 4th.

[JerseyDvl]

It’s up to 855 today and everyone hasn’t even reported their #s yet.
The media is going to be screaming about over 1k deaths tomorrow. Sure as the sun rises.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“””Yesterday saw the single highest number of New Declared Cases in the United States,
to date”””

---

WOM reported 50586 new cases yesterday. Somehow, WOM felt compelled to up their total case number so the difference between yesterday and the day before yesterday would yield a 58,107 increase.

[rfp1234]

There are big backlogs in LA and San Diego counties, too. Still waiting for their daily results.

[Nero Germanicus]

Worldometer lists fatalities for the US territories, the military, the veterans administration, federal prisons and the Navajo Nation as separate categories but they are included in the U.S. total.

[Captain Compassion]

PING!!

[Texas Eagle]

Whoa. Sum Ting Wong./

California has 277,000 TOTAL cases and 197,000 ACTIVE.

That's impossible. Only 80,000 recoveries? No way. Fewer than that actually when you deduct the deaths.

Illinois, on the other hand, has had 150,000 total cases but fewer than 30,000 active cases. That sounds more realistic.

I think there's some book cooking going on here. Somebody is trying to make this look worse than it is.

[DoughtyOne]

My response to that would be, that California has a lot of
new cases recently. That has drive up both the Declared
Cases and Active Cases.

[DoughtyOne]

It does make a difference what time the numbers are cut off
each day. The CDC may do it a couple of hours before I do
on the Left Coast.

[DoughtyOne]

If you will look at the first list of States that has the
those entities you touched on there at the bottom, you’ll see
the tally at the bottom that makes it clear those areas are counted with the states in the full total for the nation.

That’s the first listing in Section 08:

I just noticed some cells in Section 08 didn’t format as
planned. Sorry about that.

[Nero Germanicus]

Thanks. No problem. Count me among the many who really appreciate all your hard and thorough work.

[Syncro]

Fire this POS! DEADLY COVER UP: Fauci Approved Hydroxychloroquine 15 Years Ago to Cure Coronaviruses; “Nobody Needed to Die” – True Pundit ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ https://t.co/P9SxQGOZrx— 💋❌PattyAngel❌💋 (@PattyAngel64) July 7, 2020

[Syncro]

‼️Where are the law agencies and @realDonaldTrump administration regarding @CDCgov @CDCDirector DELIBERATELY exaggerating & running up COVID19 #’s⁉️

⁉️WHERE⁉️@HomelandKen @TimMurtaugh @parscale @mercedesschlapp @KerriKupecDOJ @VP @VPSecretariat @stevenmnuchin1 https://t.co/BqGByCNyRe— Jali_Cat{⭐️} (@Jali_Cat) July 3, 2020