Posted on 07/06/2020 3:04:23 PM PDT by NoLibZone
Even with more than 500,000 dead worldwide, scientists are struggling to learn how often the virus kills. Here’s why. More than six months into the pandemic, the coronavirus has infected more than 11 million people worldwide, killing more than 525,000. But despite the increasing toll, scientists still do not have a definitive answer to one of the most fundamental questions about the virus: How deadly is it?
A firm estimate could help governments predict how many deaths would ensue if the virus spread out of control. The figure, usually called the infection fatality rate, could tell health officials what to expect as the pandemic spreads to densely populated nations like Brazil, Nigeria and India. New York City’s prevalence of 7 percent in the C.D.C. study was well below the 21 percent estimated in a state survey in April. But that number was based on people recruited at supermarkets, and so the results may have been biased toward people out shopping during a pandemic — often the young, who have been less affected.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
According to CDC reporting (in this June 25 article) the latest data collected was 5/03/2020, and that data was only reported on June 25 (now 2 months out of date, and not very useful for evaluating current covid-19 statistics).
It's pretty clear to me that the Seroprevalence Survey Data is exactly what is needed to properly determine the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for Covid-19.
There are actually two "death rate" statistics the general population is concerned about: the "population fatality rate" (risk of anyone in the population dying of this disease) and the "infection fatality rate" (risk of an infected person dying of this disease).
Given all the "fear mongering" from NIH representative Dr. Anthony Fauci, and misleading representations of "Death Rates" from CDC and WORLDOMETER COVID-19 DEATHS, it's pretty clear that CDC has been complicit in supporting this continuously misleading representation.
I believe it is past time for a serious challenge to CDC.
CDC, GOOD PLAN! Why aren't you executing it?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/commercial-lab-surveys.html
OK, now that some seroprevalence survey results are finally available (even though they are at least two months out of date (and not really accurately applicable to current up to date Covid-19 tracking) I'll display how to use them anyway.
total cases = 422,268 total deaths= 32,248
4/01/2020 seroprevalence survey adjustment 12X higher Total Infections = 5,067,216
32.248 deaths / 5,067,216 = IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) 0.63%
total cases = 46,717 total deaths= 4,335
5/03/2020 seroprevalence survey adjustment 6X higher Total Infections = 280,302
4,335 deaths / 280,302 = IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) 1.54%
total cases = 36708 total deaths= 1,359
4/01/2020 seroprevalence survey adjustment 11X higher Total Infections = 403,788
1,359 deaths / 403,788 = IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) 0.33%
total cases = 200,111 total deaths= 3,732
4/10/2020 seroprevalence survey adjustment 11X higher Total Infections = 2,201,221
3,732 deaths / 2,201,221 = IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) 0.17%
total cases = 24,444 total deaths= 1,074
4/26/2020 seroprevalence survey adjustment 24X higher Total Infections = 586,656
1,074 deaths / 586,656 = IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) 0.18%
total cases =24,952 total deaths= 184
5/03/2020 seroprevalence survey adjustment 11X higher Total Infections = 274,472
184 deaths / 274,472 = IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) 0.07%
Just a note to clarify: That was an old survey, over 2 months ago, and during a rapid growth period in the pandemic. A current survey would likely show even more clear definition, with actual current data displaying significantly lower IFRs than those above.
See my work in posts # 21, 22, 23. Data is now available, it desperately needs to be updated.
Fauci and the CDC have NOT been doing their jobs well!
Its about 0.1% fatal. In the first few months it was more deadly, mostly because we did not know what we were fighting. We didn’t know which drugs and procedures worked, and which did not. Now we know lots of things that work, and we know many tools not to use. Had China not lied in the beginning, countries like Italy could have learned earlier what works and what would not. We would have learned how it spread. And how deadly it was. China may not have been able to stop the virus, once their incompetence let it out. But they could have shared data which helped other countries fight it. So you could blame half the deaths so far on China’s incompetence. But the other half you have to blame on their cowardice and total disregard for people’s lives. Given the existence of Taiwan, we know that Chinese people are not inherently bad. But the CCP is devoid of a common sense of decency and humanity. They have too much power for the world to allow them to exist uncheck.
You are assuming that we know the number of cases and completed cases. What we know is that the number of reported cases is grossly underestimated. Every time we test a population for antibodies, we find that the virus has raged through large groups of people who had no idea they ever had the virus. And whenever someone tells the doctor they have the virus, and they quarantine, if they don’t go to the hospital they may not be counted as recovered. A health professional has to locate positive test takers and confirm they are recovered. Often, this never happens. So the number of recovered cases is far smaller than reality.
See this video to confirm the above statement...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7v2F3usNVA
The last issue that your numbers will miss, is that we are much better at treating the virus now. In March, we put too many people on ventilators. We did not know which drugs worked. Or how much to give and when. A simple procedure such as laying the patient on their side and turning them every few hours has saved many lives. We can’t save everyone but we can save far more than we used to. So recent numbers, May and June show the new treatments.
You are assuming that someone who is not sick, has never been sick, and never will be sick is a “case”.
See post # 21, 22, 23.
Our hospitals are better organized now. Even those in Houston. The big population hospitals are separating covid patients at the front door, and the emergency front door. When the covid patient area becomes full, many of those patients are sent by ambulance to hospitals set up with more covid resources. Resources like doctors and other staff with antibodies, ventilators, oxygen and PPE.
We are not running out of beds in Houston or anywhere else. We are not close to running out of beds. But as you say, there needs to be a strategy to handle normal patients and another strategy to handle covid patients. And there is. So, covid patients will get moved from full hospitals to specialized covid hospitals. That said there are overflow resources that have not been put into play except in NYC back in March and April. And there they were barely used. We have the VA. We have the large unused arenas and convention facilities. And the army or FEMA can quickly build big tent hospitals like the one built in Central Park. So we are no where nearly tapped out.
If you remember the Mayor in NYC and the Governor of NY State screamed for more beds. Then when Trump produced them, they said they did not need them. Thousands of beds went unused. And NYC had ten times more cases than Texas has.
You are assuming that someone who is not sick, has never been sick, and never will be sick is a “case”.
No, I am not. I am assuming that people who got the virus are a case. As you say they may not feel sick. But they are.
There is a professor at the College of London who studied at Oxford and Cambridge, who has determined that there is clearly a large group of people who are not even able to catch the virus at all. This group could be as high as 50% to 80%. In some countries its likely smaller, like Italy, while in other countries like Germany its likely at the top of the range. They don’t know why this is, genetics, diet, vitamin D? Know one knows. But there is clearly a group who neither has antibodies, nor is susceptible to catching the virus at all.
Here is the video explaining...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUOFeVIrOPg
Thanks! Good to see someone who can reason their way through the data.
I don’t agree with the guesses on current seroprevalence, do agree that they aren’t wildly off, your math looks OK, and the conclusion based on those exposed whose immune systems are preventing an actual disease process give numbers that make sense.
Good job!
I’m basing my numbers on those who are sick enough to seek medical attention. My numbers are pretty grim, but they are only counting those who are already in trouble. That’s why I can look at something near 9% and not freak out. It’s more like 9% of 10% of the population at large.
I like your number better!
And as a bonus, unlike way too many flubros, you aren’t using the entire population of the known universe as the denominator! (Just wow). Your numbers based on people with immune responses are much a much better representative of reality.
Thanks again!
But it's still a little complicated. The 2+ month old survey data was scientifically valid, 2 months ago, when applied to tracked cases 2 months ago. The "guess" is that it can be matched to current tracking of cases, and there are several reasons why that is pure speculation rather than science.
A scientifically valid conclusion based on current case tracking must be adjusted by a current seroprevalence survey. It is very likely the current survey would yield significantly different adjustment factors, because the current population has a much larger proportion of people already infected than 2 or 3 months ago.
My intuition tells me that the ultimate IFR ratios will be significantly lower than those shown in my example calculations. Of course NO ONE should depend on MY intuition, that's why we must update the data with current scientific surveys.
The really bad news is the lack of action on the part of the CDC. It appears to me that our deep state politicians are NOT interested is solving this problem.
I hope you're right.
Of course NO ONE should depend on MY hopes!
The really bad news is the lack of action on the part of the CDC. It appears to me that our deep state politicians are NOT interested is solving this problem.
It's not a problem.
It's an opportunity.
It's an opportunity to keep their sinecures. An opportunity to keep their necks out of the traitors' nooses, if only they can use it to keep Orange Man Bad from getting a mandate of the people.
For some it really is a matter of life and death!
Tell me about it. My 92 y.o. father was on a monthly infusion regimen of Opdivo blood infusions which hadbeen holding stage IV melanoma in check for 2 years. COVID strikes and he could not get the infusion for 2 months. Scans are taken and the tumors have grown and proliferated, so the Opdivo is stopped. He tries a very small dose of the next best alternative and has terrible adverse reactions to that. It is withdrawn and now he has started palliative care. Impossible to know if the two month interruption was critical in this.
130,312 deaths / 2,939,540 confirmed cases = 4.43% rate
4th grade math.
Technically, that's a "Case Fatality Rate" and only applies to a very small subset of those infected with Covod-19.
You have been seriously misled by powerful politicians fear mongering to motivate this pandemic panic.
Please examine the Scientific math in post #22 above.
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