COVID-19 Update - 07/04/2020

My own workup | 07/04/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 108

As of 07/03/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

U. S. New Cases and the Fatality Rates

We're experiencing our hightest level of New Case declarations since COVID-19
invaded the U. S. We've now approached daily New Cases that compare to our
previous highs at 150%. At the same time, we have dropped below 1,000 daily
Fatalities for nearly a month now. Our Fatalities today are marginally lower
than they were last week. As long as our Fatalities remain in this range
the Herd Immunity theory will gain strength. Even if our Fatalities did rise
a little, it still could. It will be interesting to watch how this turns out.

The uptick in New Cases, is not cause for real concern absent a significant
increase in Fatalities.

China Decides to Play the 'Who Did the Most Testing Game?"

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a comparison.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

Another high day of New Cases declared yesterday. I can't imagine it turning
out any diffferent considering testing for the day came in 155% more than it
was on average several weeks ago. Dividing the 53,399 New Cases for the day by
155% reveals that the day would have come in at roughly 34,359 at the previous
testing levels.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active cases continue to climb.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

After falling for a period of time, we are now seeing our slice of the global
pie grow again. This had been one of a few metrics that were making it look
like we had turned the corner. Now it no longer does.

This Update doesn't seek to give all the answers. It is presented
for a base level understanding of where we are, and there are a number of
impactful reports out there that can fill in the gaps. I encourage folks to
read up on what is being reported out.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.

Testing was high again yesterday. It is 55.4% higher than the average several weeks

That being said, one theory out there assumes the higher level of positives, the
better. The more of the herd that has been exposed and survived, the better for
defeating this disease.

We can see what I consider to be data noise on the end of that trail. Several
days back, we had a large number that was unrealistic reported out.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

These seemed to be getting closer each day, but the Active Cases is veering
back up.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

There's a high number, but not the highest day this week. Wednesday took the
title this week.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

For your review...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

This area turned around and headed up again yesterday.

New Case both globally and domestically rose yesterday. Again, as long as
Fatalities remain on the lower end of the spectrum, that's good.

These charts are now not only seeing growth internationally, but domestically
as well.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

Global Active Cases returned to growth again yesterday.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Hard to miss the correction in the direction of the U. K. there. I double checked
the data, and the correction has been sustained for the last day and a half.
It is accurate. Unless a correction occurs, the U. K. just changed
direction.

One wonders if the U. K. just found they weren't using the same
counting and reporting guidelines other nations were.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Some good and bad there. Remember, our testing was at 155.4% compared to a couple
of weeks ago.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.010% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

The percentage missed my target dates of 06/25-26 and then 06/27-28, but I think
we are lucky to see that Recolved Cases number above 61% at this time.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

For your review...

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

US Fatalities continue to remain in sub-1,000 territory.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

In the lasts 28 days, we have looked very good in this area. I'm not sure we've
had even one clean count day over 1,000 out of those 26 days.

New York, New Jersey, I'm sure you'll have a very hard time figuring out where
they botched things... /s

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

We're still slipping here, and I'm looking forward to better numbers.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with massive numbers.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Those numbers are pretty impressive, but if Fatalities remain low, the Herd
Immunity folks will score points. Let's see how it goes.

Note that these new daily records this week, with the exception of Wednesday's
numbers, are barely outpacing the previous week. Looking at that chart, I think
it's clear that is a big change from one to two weeks ago.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

We're back at the 26th spot on this data sheet.

Progress...

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[M Kehoe]

Bttt.

5.56mm

[Captain Compassion]

PING!

[Prince of Space]

Bflr.

[traderrob6]

As I stated on a thread a week back or so...

“You are buying into the misbelief that those most vulnerable are being equally as infected as those that are not. That is a erroneous assumption.

Also look at the initial spikes in infection in March/April.....there was no “lagging effect” concerning fatalities, they virtually mirrored each other.

Also look at hospitalizations.....No major surge.”

The concern trolls beat their breasts about increased positives but the right people are getting infected and the most vulnerable are finally being protected properly.

[kickstart]

Cases are going up (mostly do to testing) while mortality is decreasing.

All these numbers and testing have no previous context for comparison. I think any severe flu (ie; Hong Kong) would look similar, and we didn’t shut down our country and ruined our economy.

Being alive is hazardous to your health.

[Fai Mao]

If you remove NY State and NJ from the totals which were hit hard and bungled the situation horribly the US has done spectacularly well.

[gas_dr]

Additionally there will be breathless media reports of Florida 11,000+ cases in 24 hours. However the percent positivity decreased (albeit it to 14%) it was down a full 1% and only 16 deaths

Los Angela did not report Friday due to technical issues to expect a whopper number from California on Monday which will used to induce panic. Well times as the fourth will be passed and people will be back to looking at this. I don’t trust the motives behind CA on this as the timing stinks to high heaven

[buckalfa]

Thank you D1 for your diligence. As South Carolina teeters towards another lock down, I do not know what to think.

[amorphous]

4th of July:

•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.

[traderrob6]

254.....the lowest number of fatalities since March 23rd.

Looking forward to seeing how the perennially horrified chicken little’s can spin that number negatively.

Probably do what they generally do when they can’t spin thegood news.....just ignore it.

[gas_dr]

While I am sure it is part of the weekend and holiday shift it clearly maintains the trend

[EBH]

btt

[george76]

Coronavirus deaths declined by ~ 90% in the US from the high set on April 21st.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3859631/posts

[exDemMom]

We're experiencing our hightest level of New Case declarations since COVID-19 invaded the U. S. We've now approached daily New Cases that compare to our previous highs at 150%. At the same time, we have dropped below 1,000 daily Fatalities for nearly a month now. Our Fatalities today are marginally lower than they were last week. As long as our Fatalities remain in this range the Herd Immunity theory will gain strength.

As I explained yesterday, herd immunity will not stop the spread of Covid-19 until a minimum of 60% of the population becomes immune. At this point, only 0.27% of the US population has recovered from a Covid-19 infection, and the jury is still out on whether persons who have recovered have immunity, and how long that immunity might last (coronavirus immunity generally lasts months to a few years, but is not permanent). We are a *long* ways from achieving herd immunity through infection; furthermore, herd immunity has never been achieved through the natural spread of infection, but through vaccines. And there is no vaccine, and no real idea of when or if one might become available.

Those numbers are pretty impressive, but if Fatalities remain low, the Herd Immunity folks will score points. Let's see how it goes.

Herd immunity does not affect fatalities. It affects the R0 number--that is, how many people on average will catch the disease from an index case. The goal of herd immunity is to reduce the R0 number to below one. This is also the goal of interventions such as social distancing and the wearing of face masks in public.

A lot of factors go into the fatality rate. I like to think that the decreased rate is occurring because of the many clinical trials being conducted now on various interventions--the much-touted chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine being one, but also the several anti-viral medications that are (hopefully) far enough along in the development pipeline to already be close to FDA approval so that they can get that approval and be manufactured and distributed expeditiously.

[exDemMom]

Oh, bother.

I forgot to mention that my numbers today show an improvement in new case data. This is probably because you and I collect numbers at different times of the day.

The number of new US cases this morning was 44,754, which is still in record territory but significantly lower than cases recorded at the same time yesterday. In addition, there was a huge jump in the number of recovered cases, so that the resolved case rate jumped by over 3%. Good news, I hope to see these trends continue!

[exDemMom]

254.....the lowest number of fatalities since March 23rd.

Fatalities are a lagging indicator. I have previously read that people die between 2 and 6 weeks after infection, and yesterday, I read a paper that said that the median time to death is 16 days. At 16 days ago, new cases were rising daily but had not yet reached record territory. Yesterday, cases reached their record peak, so I expect to see a peak in deaths resulting from the current increased cases in late July.

There are many factors that contribute to the death rate. One would be the demographics of those who acquire Covid-19; since it is no longer the practice to put Covid-19 patients into nursing homes (what were they thinking???), those vulnerable people are no longer being unnecessarily exposed. Also, there are many clinical trials into various pharmaceutical interventions being planned and conducted (a handful are complete); I like to think that these are also helping to decrease the death rate.

[traderrob6]

Fatalities have been steadily declining from their peak of 2749 on April 21st. That’s 11 straight weeks of declining in Covid-19 related deaths!

It is not rocket science as to why deaths are declining even though positive test cases have increased...

1.Significantly more test being administered.

2. Infections are occurring in a far less vulnerable population segment.

3. Treatment protocol has improved

4. Simple exposure is being lumped in as a determinate of being Covid-19 infected.

5. Virus is weakening?

Why you people seem to be convinced that an increase in “positive test numbers” will necessarily result in increased fatalities is inexplicable.... Like a bunch of Fauchi mini-me’s.

[exDemMom]

Why you people seem to be convinced that an increase in “positive test numbers” will necessarily result in increased fatalities is inexplicable.... Like a bunch of Fauchi mini-me’s.

It is a simple matter of more infections cause more deaths. Even with the recent lowered death numbers, the overall death rate is still at 4.5% in the US. Now, if I had the data to calculate a true case fatality rate (CFR), perhaps it would show a significant drop due to efficacy of experimental treatments. But in order to calculate any true CFR, I would need to know the outcomes of people infected within a specified time frame. And in order to tease out the effect of improved treatments, I would have to compare the CFRs from before clinical trials started and after they have been conducted for several weeks. I don't have the information to calculate that, and don't know how to get it.