Posted on 07/04/2020 2:46:57 PM PDT by DoughtyOne
Bttt.
5.56mm
PING!
Bflr.
As I stated on a thread a week back or so...
“You are buying into the misbelief that those most vulnerable are being equally as infected as those that are not. That is a erroneous assumption.
Also look at the initial spikes in infection in March/April.....there was no “lagging effect” concerning fatalities, they virtually mirrored each other.
Also look at hospitalizations.....No major surge.”
The concern trolls beat their breasts about increased positives but the right people are getting infected and the most vulnerable are finally being protected properly.
Cases are going up (mostly do to testing) while mortality is decreasing.
All these numbers and testing have no previous context for comparison. I think any severe flu (ie; Hong Kong) would look similar, and we didn’t shut down our country and ruined our economy.
Being alive is hazardous to your health.
If you remove NY State and NJ from the totals which were hit hard and bungled the situation horribly the US has done spectacularly well.
Additionally there will be breathless media reports of Florida 11,000+ cases in 24 hours. However the percent positivity decreased (albeit it to 14%) it was down a full 1% and only 16 deaths
Los Angela did not report Friday due to technical issues to expect a whopper number from California on Monday which will used to induce panic. Well times as the fourth will be passed and people will be back to looking at this. I don’t trust the motives behind CA on this as the timing stinks to high heaven
Thank you D1 for your diligence. As South Carolina teeters towards another lock down, I do not know what to think.
•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.
254.....the lowest number of fatalities since March 23rd.
Looking forward to seeing how the perennially horrified chicken little’s can spin that number negatively.
Probably do what they generally do when they can’t spin thegood news.....just ignore it.
While I am sure it is part of the weekend and holiday shift it clearly maintains the trend
btt
Coronavirus deaths declined by ~ 90% in the US from the high set on April 21st.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3859631/posts
As I explained yesterday, herd immunity will not stop the spread of Covid-19 until a minimum of 60% of the population becomes immune. At this point, only 0.27% of the US population has recovered from a Covid-19 infection, and the jury is still out on whether persons who have recovered have immunity, and how long that immunity might last (coronavirus immunity generally lasts months to a few years, but is not permanent). We are a *long* ways from achieving herd immunity through infection; furthermore, herd immunity has never been achieved through the natural spread of infection, but through vaccines. And there is no vaccine, and no real idea of when or if one might become available.
Those numbers are pretty impressive, but if Fatalities remain low, the Herd Immunity folks will score points. Let's see how it goes.
Herd immunity does not affect fatalities. It affects the R0 number--that is, how many people on average will catch the disease from an index case. The goal of herd immunity is to reduce the R0 number to below one. This is also the goal of interventions such as social distancing and the wearing of face masks in public.
A lot of factors go into the fatality rate. I like to think that the decreased rate is occurring because of the many clinical trials being conducted now on various interventions--the much-touted chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine being one, but also the several anti-viral medications that are (hopefully) far enough along in the development pipeline to already be close to FDA approval so that they can get that approval and be manufactured and distributed expeditiously.
Oh, bother.
I forgot to mention that my numbers today show an improvement in new case data. This is probably because you and I collect numbers at different times of the day.
The number of new US cases this morning was 44,754, which is still in record territory but significantly lower than cases recorded at the same time yesterday. In addition, there was a huge jump in the number of recovered cases, so that the resolved case rate jumped by over 3%. Good news, I hope to see these trends continue!
Fatalities are a lagging indicator. I have previously read that people die between 2 and 6 weeks after infection, and yesterday, I read a paper that said that the median time to death is 16 days. At 16 days ago, new cases were rising daily but had not yet reached record territory. Yesterday, cases reached their record peak, so I expect to see a peak in deaths resulting from the current increased cases in late July.
There are many factors that contribute to the death rate. One would be the demographics of those who acquire Covid-19; since it is no longer the practice to put Covid-19 patients into nursing homes (what were they thinking???), those vulnerable people are no longer being unnecessarily exposed. Also, there are many clinical trials into various pharmaceutical interventions being planned and conducted (a handful are complete); I like to think that these are also helping to decrease the death rate.
Fatalities have been steadily declining from their peak of 2749 on April 21st. That’s 11 straight weeks of declining in Covid-19 related deaths!
It is not rocket science as to why deaths are declining even though positive test cases have increased...
1.Significantly more test being administered.
2. Infections are occurring in a far less vulnerable population segment.
3. Treatment protocol has improved
4. Simple exposure is being lumped in as a determinate of being Covid-19 infected.
5. Virus is weakening?
Why you people seem to be convinced that an increase in “positive test numbers” will necessarily result in increased fatalities is inexplicable.... Like a bunch of Fauchi mini-me’s.
It is a simple matter of more infections cause more deaths. Even with the recent lowered death numbers, the overall death rate is still at 4.5% in the US. Now, if I had the data to calculate a true case fatality rate (CFR), perhaps it would show a significant drop due to efficacy of experimental treatments. But in order to calculate any true CFR, I would need to know the outcomes of people infected within a specified time frame. And in order to tease out the effect of improved treatments, I would have to compare the CFRs from before clinical trials started and after they have been conducted for several weeks. I don't have the information to calculate that, and don't know how to get it.
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