Posted on 06/28/2020 3:58:07 PM PDT by lonestar67
A New York Times/Siena College poll finds that Joseph R. Biden Jr. is ahead of the president by 14 points, leading among women and nonwhite voters and cutting into his support with white voters.
Published June 24, 2020Updated
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Whether Trump wins or loses it’s only going to be 2 or 3 points in either direction. These polls that have Biden up 14 points are laughable. And to be fair the folks that say Trump will win in landslide are equally laughable. The country is simply to evenly divided for either of those results to ever happen.
“Not a single pollster will reveal the number of non-respondents (although they will list 10 pages of stats for “poll internals”), and these non-respondents would be overwhelmingly silent Trump voters. The “shy Trump voter” was a real thing in 2016, and there would easily be ten times that number for 2020.”
Agreed, and to add my two cents, if the theory that the majority of non-respondents are Trump voters and I believe they are, then you have to somehow find a way to account for them if you want to produce an accurate polling sample. The problem is you can’t, meaning a substantial number of Trump voters are being excluded if the theory is correct, putting into question the accuracy of these polls.
I said it last week and I will say it again, if people want straight up Communism in America who am I to stop them..all I can do is VOTE, that’s it..but if people want an America with NO 2nd Amendment, NO police, open borders, than what can we do other than the obvious but vote
I am setting some things up on my computer and I am seriously considering this.
I am a college professor and I do publish on politics.
It is a good idea.
Votes may be worthless this election day!
I know you don’t do polls anymore. But, this was interesting.
I disagree. I refuse to listen to the media narrative. He talks about America First still. The border, trade deals. He also talks about a strong military, law and order and opening up the country. Factor in conservative judges, and what other message do you need
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yes, Trump talks about an awful lot of things. And he tweets about an awful lot of things. That sound great. And then he does nothing.
I was at a graduation party with a lot of Christian conservatives in Maine this weekend. There would never be a point that any of them would vote for Biden, but enthusiasm for Trump is way down. Lots of talk. No action. And the fact that Gorsuch has played out as a ghastly pic and Trump has no idea is a cherry on a very bad Sundae.
I remember a poster from another thread said that the 2020 polls corrected the 2016 polls by including the education factor (non college educated voters went big for Trump in 2016). Yet I see that this 2020 New York Times poll had 38% democrats and 28% republicans (a 10 point advantage for democrats). I don’t believe this poll corrected for the education factor.
I can't help but be reminded of the "unskewed polls" guy back in 2012 who "corrected" all the polling and had everyone here convinced Romney was going to win handedly.
I agree.
I have refused pollsters since a poll during the Cruz/Trump heyday.
I'm feeling this as well. I think there's a lot of whistling past the graveyard going on. People here think that because the 2016 polling was so off (and it wasn't really off, Hillary got the right number of votes, just in the wrong places) that 2020 polling will be as well.
I'm not feeling it. I think Tulsa bode as an omen for a decline in enthusiasm.
Biden has an advantage. People don't hate him nearly as much as they hated Hillary Clinton. People forget this. A significant number of Trump voters were people who voted for him for no other reason than that they loathed, abolutely loathed, Hillary Clinton. It's not that they loved Trump, but that they really, really hated her. Additionally, there's another group of voters that weren't really fond of Trump but thought he'd be good for the economy. Today, the economy looks like a smoking crater.
I'm wrong more often than right and maybe I'll be wrong again, but I am not at all convinced that the president will be re-elected.
“Hello will you be voting for Joe Biden in 2020, or do you want us to send an army of protesters carrying pitchforks and torches to your workplace and home?”:
The way I’m sure some people on the right understandably hear a polling question.
Trump has not been able to get out there with the people and Tulsa was not a bad turnout considering that older folks are still afraid of the damn virus for Trump to get 7,000 people with riots going on everywhere AND the media SCREAMING about how dangerous it was to go out I am amazed he had that many!! I mean GEEZE Joe had 7 people in PA. and Trump had 7,000 everyone needs to lighten up!!
Two recent polls found Biden trailing 35 and 31 points in enthusiasm. If that holds, and there is no reason to think it will not, it will be impossible for Biden to win. Who people say they will vote for and who they are enthusiastic to vote for are two very different metrics.
“The country is simply too evenly divided for either of those results to ever happen.”
But we don’t know that, do we?
Half of the eligible voters turn out. It is reported that the split is pretty even. However, we know that a huuuuge part of the votes claimed by the dims are fraudulent.
So, Repub votes roughly equal Dim votes plus Dim fraud.
This has to mean that legitimate Dim votes are far fewer than Repub votes. This, in turn, should mean that the elimination of election fraud should prevent the Dims from ever again winning an election.
If you go by gun sales there is a different story to be told. The public is afraid the dims are going to win. I think that will score more than a few votes for President Trump from outside the R enclave.
The fact is, when the Left owns all of our Institutions: Media, Academia, Churches, and our Corporations, you really think voting matters anymore? That train has left the station.
I will NEVER answer a poll and I ALWAYS vote. I suspect there are many that are in my same boat.
Conclusion: I don’t trust the veracity of polls these days. Perhaps 15 years ago when it was acceptable to have a differing opinion polls were valid, but today there’s no way it’s possible.
The best thing, IMO, for a committed conservative is to be physically located in a locale with a solid conservative majority, and vote there.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.