Posted on 06/17/2020 5:18:28 AM PDT by Kaslin
Henry Olsen, a scholar from the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, D.C., has a well-deserved reputation for on-target analysis on politics and elections.
Olsen just published a column in the Washington Post titled "Trump may be down, but he is not out. At least not yet."
The bottom has fallen out of President Donald Trump's approval ratings. Most recently, Gallup reports his approval at 39%, down 10 points from the month before.
According to Olsen, by conventional analysis, the outlook for a Trump victory in November is not good. "Presidents who polled this poorly less than five months before Election Day have always lost," he wrote.
But how useful is conventional analysis now?
President Trump is not a conventional figure. These are not conventional times. And his polling has been like a roller coaster since he was elected.
The standard reelection campaign refrain is "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"
President Trump ran on a theme: "Make America Great Again." Voters will ask in November, "Is America greater today than four years ago?"
Here again, there is reason for concern.
Another new Gallup poll shows the percentage of Americans saying they are "extremely" or "very" proud of their country is the lowest ever, at 63%. This is 18 points lower than where it stood four years ago.
Gallup also now reports only 20% of Americans saying they are satisfied with the direction of the country. Just four months ago, in February, it stood at 45%, the highest it had stood in 15 years.
The first big drop in satisfaction occurred following the spread of COVID-19. Then, in May, it dropped 12 points following the death of George Floyd.
Last February, the economy was surging, as was Trump's approval. Unemployment, including black unemployment, was at all-time lows.
Now Trump is being tarred, justifiably or not, with COVID-19 and racial unrest.
Can light enter the tunnel?
The May jobs report was strong, showing a drop in unemployment and 2.5 million new jobs. The economy is starting to roar back.
Most certainly, there will be some kind of bipartisan legislation dealing with policing. Demonstrations don't go on forever. Time, plus action on policing, could take the edge off racial tensions.
A sharp economic recovery and easing of racial tensions can produce a bounce-back for Trump like he has seen in the past.
What is critical?
What motivated voters to go Republican in 2016 and swing six blue states red was the Make America Great Again message: freedom in the marketplace and draining the swamp in Washington.
The challenges are even greater now than then.
We are now looking at a $2 trillion-plus deficit. National debt now stands at 110% of our gross domestic product -- the highest since World War II.
The answers to our COVID-19 recovery and our racial challenges must be freedom. Only freedom will open the door to innovation and respecting the humanity of every citizen.
It will be easy to go down the alternative road, where the nation's left would like to take us -- institutionalizing the massive surge of government to deal with COVID-19 and more government-mandated diversity as the answer to racial tensions. This will bog us down with socialism and slow growth, hurting the very people we supposedly want to help.
Let's give credit to the American people. We're facing different crises today. But dealing with the greatest crisis is the best way to deal with the other ones. That greatest crisis is choosing the right path for the nation's future.
The candidate who conveys to voters a sense that America's future will be defined by freedom, and a rule of law that respects the humanity of all and is carried out fairly and equally, is the candidate America's majority will choose.
You’re right, and that is what the rats intend: massive mail-in vote fraud.
Trump didn’t cause the hysterical reaction to a disease, or to the weeks of violent insanity following a killing. The question is if the average ordinary ignorant stupid American voter still has his head where colonoscopies are done, or not.
God Bless and protect Trump!
If it’s a free and fair election Trump will win by a landslide. I would crawl over a field of broken glass to vote for Trump this November, and I live in a State where there’s no chance my vote will effect the ultimate outcome.
There’s no enthusiasm for Ol’ Joe whatsoever. I don’t care how many riots the Democrats start, their “base” isn’t going to bother getting out of bed to vote for that sad old coot.
I realize that boat parades, in different parts of the country, may not be the best barometer of how the political winds are blowing, but I don’t remember ever seeing them for any of our other Presidents. Definitely not the last two occupants of the White House.
Additionally, can anyone tell me when any of the previous President’s had close to 1MILLION citizens wanting to attend a rally for them? Happening in the midst of a “pandemic”(cough, cough) and radical leftists protesting and trying to burn the country down.
Recover from what? Trump’s driving the bus.
The election is Trump vs Ballot harvesting.
Nothing you read from idiots like this about polls and predictions are used toilet paper.
Recover from what? The same early and late polls going into 2016
election showed Hillary winning in a landslide. How did that turn out?
These fake MSM polls are intended to influence voters, not poll accurately.
Typical thinking by people on the right.
Always wringing their hands and sure that voter fraud is just going to be “unprecedented”, blah blah blah.
The same people singing the same tune in 2016, and then wanted to be in on the victory.
Exactly.
Most important election in the history of this country. And if he wins, the protests and riots we’ve seen are going to look like campfires. But, that is where his leadership will come in and where folks will step up.
Limbaugh was saying the other day that he hasn’t seen any 3%’ers out there or groups of armed citizens stopping all of this....nor was he advocating any of that. But things are starting to change. Video going around right now of a ANTIFAs chasing a guy down the street, yelling they were going to “f*cking kill” him. He was able to get up and draw his pistol and started shooting. There was a shooting in NM the other day when ANTIFA wanted to tear down a statue.
Hell, with the looming manpower shortages in police departments, ANTIFA bodies may soon be littering the streets. Of course, they’ll eventually start fighting back, in kind, as they already have their John Brown Brigades and a bullet is a bullet no matter where it comes from, but someone with some skills and training will be ok.
There’s nothing to recover from! Trump will win by a huge landslide!
Can Trump win in November? Yes. Can Trump lose in November? Yes. It all depends on what happens between now and then.
For sure.
It’s funny but all the Liberal monkeyshines are doing NOTHING to gain support for their policies and NOTHING to pick up votes.
Their dirty tricks and lies are only preaching to the converted
No one with a brain can hear Liberal crap and say to him/her self: “Wow-how right on those Liberals are! I think I need to vote for THEM!”
-—”Gallup also now reports only 20% of Americans saying they are satisfied with the direction of the country. Just four months ago, in February, it stood at 45%, the highest it had stood in 15 years.”-—
Which illustrates how fickle the polling is.
How can you be “satisfied” when the governments is forcing you to not live your life the way you want to?
No human should be “satisfied” with these quarantines.
Did President Trump test positive for Covid19?
Landslide!
The only people that will vote against Trump are people whose IQs are smaller than their shoe size.
Trump will run a smart and effective campaign taking in to account Biden’s lack of accomplishments over 40 years in government and his deteriorating mental status.
Also, he needs to introduce school choice as a major plank, it differentiates him and is very popular among Blacks and Whites trapped in failing public schools.
I’ve yet to meet a single DJT voter that won’t vote for him again.
“And not a ONE will pay any sort of consequence.”
In this life. . . .but I trust Almighty God, the Father of Jesus Christ, who died on the cross for the sins of the world (myself included). I follow Him and trust His promises. There are consequences ahead.
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