Dash for campaign cash: Biden and DNC rake in more than $80 million in May

Fox News ^ | June 15 2020 | Paul Steinhauser, Madeleine Rivera

[knighthawk]

Fueled by his rise in the polls and his presidential campaign’s enhanced online fundraising machine, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden says his campaign, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and their joint fundraising committee hauled in a combined $80.8 million in May.

The former vice president’s campaign, in unveiling its fundraising figures on Monday, touted that half its donors last month were new, with 1.5 million new contributors “in the past few weeks.” Biden aides also spotlighted that they’ve tripled the number of online donors since February.

“I’m humbled and honored that you have put your trust in me as your presumptive Democratic nominee. And I’m incredibly honored by the support I’ve received from you all,” Biden said as he announced the May fundraising figures in an email to supporters. “Just a few months ago, people were ready to write this campaign off. Now, we are making huge dents in Donald Trump’s war chest. Every single dollar is going to make sure he is only a one-term president.”

[Texas Eagle]

How much of that came in from BLM?

[Signalman]

Shrillary spent $1B dollars and still couldn’t beat DJT who spent half as much.

[House Atreides]

I wonder how much of this is coming from and being redirected from contributions to Soros’ Black Lives Matter? And do the gullible BLM donors know that?

[apillar]

At least half of it is likely George Soros money funneled through shill names and addresses to get around the individual contribution limit.

[mass55th]

Laundered money.

[griswold3]

Does that include BLM, Inc donations to ActBlue?

[Taxman]

There is not enough money in the world to buy the US Presidency for Sleepy Sloe Joe!

[sauropod]

Most of it, I would think.

Plugs is “down with the struggle.”

He told you so. “You ain’t black!”

[Gene Eric]

>> How much of that came in from BLM?

How much of that came from Comcast’s $100 million?

[Carl Vehse]

$80.8 million aid and comfort to the domestic terrorist enemy.

[Political Junkie Too]

All:

I'm updating my election forecast model for 2020. I gave up midway through 2016 due to the absurdly false polls that were put out by the MSM. We'll see if they can do better this cycle. At least, there are sites like Statespoll.com that offer adjusted polls based on more reasonable turnout models that I will use.

That said, here is a preview:

Using the actual 2016 state by state results and applying a +/- 5% swing in votes, the following insights emerge as a starting point for future analysis:

• President Trump has a 58% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
• The Democrats has a 40% probability of getting at least 270 Electoral College votes.
• The weighted average for President Trump is 276 Electoral College votes, with a 52.6% probability of getting more.
• The weighted average for the Democrat is 262 Electoral College votes, with a 47.5% of getting more.
• Critical states for President Trump:
  1. North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 98.1% of the cases where Trump wins include North Carolina. It is a "must win" state. That's probably why the RNC chose to hold their convention there, and why the Democrat governor chose to play Covid politics with the RNC convention.
     • 10th on the Democrat list at 45.1%
  2. Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 93.1% of Trump wins include Arizona.
     • 11th on the Democrat list at 43.8%
  3. Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 92.3%. The RNC convention is being moved here.
     • 6th on the Democrat list at 82.0%
• Critical states for the Democrats:
  1. Colorado (9 EV, Strong D) - 99.8% of Democrat wins include Colorado.
     • 11th on Trump's list at 23.7%
  2. Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 99.3%.
     • 9th on Trump's list at 48.4%
  3. Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 92.4%.
     • 10th on Trump's list at 36.9%
  4. Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 92.4%.
     • 8th on Trump's list at 53.5%
• Top 10 Battleground States - states with the highest outcome uncertainty:
  1. Michigan (16 EV, Tilt R) - 82.7% uncertainty.
     • 78.0% critical for Trump.
     • 81.5% critical for Democrats.
  2. Wisconsin (10 EV, Tilt R) - 82.6% uncertainty.
     • 80.8% critical for Trump.
     • 74.1% critical for Democrats.
  3. Florida (29 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
     • 92.3% critical for Trump.
     • 82.0% critical for Democrats.
  4. Pennsylvania (20 EV, Tilt R) - 82.5% uncertainty.
     • 76.5% critical for Trump.
     • 73.2% critical for Democrats.
  5. New Hampshire (4 EV, Tilt D) - 81.3% uncertainty.
     • 68.6% critical for Trump.
     • 84.0% critical for Democrats.
  6. Arizona (11 EV, Strong R) - 77.1% uncertainty.
     • 93.1% critical for Trump.
     • 43.8% critical for Democrats.
  7. Minnesota (10 EV, Lean D) - 76.6% uncertainty.
     • 53.5% critical for Trump.
     • 92.4% critical for Democrats.
  8. North Carolina (15 EV, Strong R) - 75.5% uncertainty.
     • 98.1% critical for Trump.
     • 45.1% critical for Democrats.
  9. Nevada (6 EV, Lean D) - 72.2% uncertainty.
     • 48.4% critical for Trump.
     • 99.3% critical for Democrats.
  10. Maine (4 EV, Strong D) - 68.8% uncertainty.
      • 36.9% critical for Trump.
      • 92.4% critical for Democrats.

I will put out more reports as soon as the conventions pass and true candidate polling begins. I will also cross-post this report on related threads as appropriate.

-PJ

[G Larry]

How much help was Hillary’s cash advantage in 2016?

[ronnie raygun]

Corporations investing in BLM that goes right to the DNC coffers with no donation regulations, what a scam

[manc]

how many millions were funneled from the groups pretending to be for the guy who died

[salmon76]

How much from China? 50% or more?

[hsmomx3]

I don’t think AZ is a strong R at all. I live here and the D’s are winning more and more.

[Seaplaner]

Laundered money

Could it have been, say, 567 million yuan before it was 80 million dollars?

[Carriage Hill]

I don’t think there’ll be any in-person debates, as Biden’s so senile, and the DNC-Fake Media won’t be able to cover it up. He’ll claim the Red Chinese CCP flu virus death is too dangerous for his age, and the campaign will be all TV ads.

[Political Junkie Too]

I set that indicator based on the probabilities of winning. That will change over time as the polls start coming in.

For the current "Strong R" setting, it is based on the 2016 result of Trump 49% - Clinton 45.5%. With an assumed 5% MOE, that translates into a 78.88% chance of the leader actually winning, which I put into the "Strong" category.

-PJ