COVID-19 Update - 06/10/2020

My own workup | 06/10/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 84

As of 06/09/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Yesterday's Summary in a Nutshell

New Cases in the United States came in at 19,118 yesterday. That was down 30
cases from the day before.

Fatalities rose to 1,090 in the United States. That was up 498 from the day
before. Rather than a new trend, I believe this is a reporting issue.

Sundays and Mondays are the low reporting days of the week. On Tuesdays the
numbers grow each week.

Global Cases rose by 15,923 cases to come in at 124,632. The day before
the number was 108,709. This was another record for a Tuesday.

Fatalities on the Global scene came in at 4,973. That was 2,405 more than
the day before.

Late Posting...

A family event came up yesterday evening. What was expected to take a couple
of hours turned into six hours. I captured the data and decided to post the
Update later in the day.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

Our daily New Case numbers are residing in a place they haven't been since
the 24th through 26th of May. Hopefully we can hang around down here for
a while. High reporting days just ahead.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Our Active Cases are still lower than they were just before the end of May.
Would like to think we've seen our highest Active Case count, but we may
not have.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Our slice of the Global COVID-19 pie, is getting smaller. Hope that trend
can continue. Yesterday's reductions were pretty good.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

The active cases fell for four out of five days recently. That dropped our
number by a fair amount. We've still not grown back to the previous high
and we seem to be growing by lesser amounts. I'd like to see this turn
back down, and that may be the case in a few days.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.

Postive tests have fallen to less than 5.00%. They do bounce around a bit,
but we are in a better position that we were weeks gone by.

Here is a chart to reveal visually what the decline has looked like.

On the right there, you can see the lines weaving lower overall.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visully.

The lines are coming together here. That dynamic is much more pronounced
for the Global scene on its Chart down below.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Yesterday's New Cases reported out as a new record for a Tuesday. For about
the last three weeks, almost every day has been a record for the day. Cases
have grown steadily on the Global scene week to week.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

For your review...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

That middle number has gone high again.

Our blue indicators here are going down. Sorry to see the Global scene
having such a hard time.

Globally, not looking good. We're remaining under 20k. That's great.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

That single day line seems raring to go there.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

The United Kingdom, in a word, balistic...

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Look who is back to reporting out their number of Fatalities. (Brazil)

Their president got tweaked by his media, and he cut off the reporting of
them for one day. Here, they're back.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

I also like seeing those trajectories intersect

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That percentage in the right column there, had been slipping a bit, but the
last two days it has rebounded a bit. Nice...

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Anyone paying attention is already aware of the issues surrounding these
numbers. I'm not going to touch base on them every day.

Here is the chart to go along with those figures.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Our number of Fatalities did rise yesterday. Going back seven days, it still
comes in lower. We are trending down.

Here are two charts to go with the above data.

Fatalities are dropping off nicely here, but on the Global scene it seems
as if the numbers have rebounded up. Hope that changes soon.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Nice... I like seeing new cases come in under 1.00%.

It's pretty easy to spot the weekly cycles isn't it..

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

Our numbers have moderated in these demographics. Globally, not so much.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with massive numbers.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Look at that record number for a Tuesday yesterday. Day over day from the
previous week contrasts wildly. Remember that France adjusted their nubmers
way down last week. That really reduced the numbers for the day.

I don't like the thought of what the Global numbers are going to come in
like this Thursday and Friday.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough. Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

We remained in 30th place here...

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[buckalfa]

Thank you D1 !

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

TY

[bgill]

Of all my counties’ cases, 2/3rds have been after the May 1 opening. There’s not been an update for several days but I know that means they don’t want to publish the spike.

[DoughtyOne]

Oh great!

[amorphous]

June 10:

•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.

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[miserare]

Not good news, but thanks for reporting anyway.

[amorphous]

Sorry, just reporting today’s WOM numbers. Considering the protests ongoing, and reports of increasing cases in some states, overall the situation seems to be improving for the US as a whole - albeit too slowly for me too.

[Cronos]

interesting, so the underperformance compared to projection is still happening. Good news! We may hit 140K deaths by 1 August, which is still under the 150K that seemed likely just two weeks ago.

[LilFarmer]

Thank you. Sure wish we were seeing a downturn!

[Paul R.]

It appears much of Latin America, especially Brazil and Mexico, is in a lot of trouble...

OUR numbers are a bit troubling too: Daily fatalities continue to slowly decline (good!), but daily new cases have essentially levelled out at around 20k / day, and total active cases are similarly level at about 1.1 million cases. This is NOT a “bell curve” or anything like one. We seem to be in a sort of balance between COVID-19’s infectiousness and relaxed restrictions on the one hand, and summer and a moderate level of precautions on the other. (My observation as I go about is that many people, maybe 60% of those in stores, no longer wear masks, and in general individuals’ mitigation is more lax -— this in addition to things “opening back up”.)

Hopefully downward trends in daily new cases will resume, and active cases will finally decline emphatically, but, other than hotter weather in the next couple month, I see nothing to drive such trends.

I am ok with the opening up, it is near absolute necessity. But I am not so pleased with the behavior of individuals. If we still have a base of 1 million KNOWN active cases, plus those not detected, when we get to fall, preventing a “second wave” could be tough. IMO.

[amorphous]

Thank y'all...And you too D1.

Texas Reports Record Jump In COVID-19 Infections As US Total Tops 2 Million: Live Updates

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-one-fifth-us-sees-covid-19-hospitalizations-hit-new-record-highs-live-updates

The Dow is now on pace for its biggest one-day loss since March, dropping 1,400 points

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday as coronavirus cases increased in some states that are reopening up from lockdowns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

---

We've been warning this isn't over yet. And I saw were CDC is now saying maybe 250k dead from CV around October. Just tracking WOM data, as I've been doing, I see slow improvement, tho recent CV news articles has me worried that maybe "they" know something we don't.

[DoughtyOne]

Paul, if you’ll look back week to week, our numbers have
drifted lower. We’re at the lowest point we have been.

I see the CDC making big noises, but the numbers do not back
them up.

The positives to testing ratio is continuing to drop despite
their claims. Now these do bob up and down a bit, but there
isn’t a general trend upward, which stands in the face of
what they are claiming. New cases are in the high teens to
low 20s. That’s better. Our deaths are also far better.

There seems to be a real vested interest in scaring the
hell out of people. I’m not buying in.

Not inferring you were trying to worry folks. It’s just
that if you don’t really study the numbers, it pretty
easy to see some sort of doom coming.

I came very close to not posting my Update today. What
stopped me what this harangue about things getting worse.

Bull stuff... (again, the CDC, not you...)

[DoughtyOne]

Why is this being reported on the 11th? Why the big play on
it now?

We passed the 2 million mark on the 7th. As numbers go,
this isn’t a massive number associated to an infectious
disease.

Our positives to testing ration is dropping, not rising.

Week over week, we’re dropping in cases and fatalities.

There are sinister forces at work here > IMO.

Someone wants the public to panic and buy into being locked
up for months more.

As for the DOW, it had jumped up quickly, and it seemed
to me it was a rather unjustified climb.

This correction doesn’t surprise me.

Yes it’s big, but look at the climb over the last five days
prior. I don’t see this as evidence of anything other than
the market reacting to reasoned perceptions.

At the end of the day, we’ll still be a lot higher than I
thought we would be right now.

[LilFarmer]

I’m going to copy this to the weekly thread if you don’t mind... I wish we could merge the two 🙂

[amorphous]

I wish we could merge the two 🙂

One is daily, the other is weekly.

Any ideas?

[LilFarmer]

Not really. I will just try to remember to add the daily link to the weekly+ thread

[DoughtyOne]

Due to the size of my posts, I’d recommend not putting seven of them on the weekly post. It would create a hell of a
beast to load.

If folks wish to post over here, or simply put links over
there to this thread, that would be the best I could
suggest.

This effort already sucks up too much of my time, so I’m
not really contemplating any additional features or
tricks.

Not trying to be hard nosed about it. There’s only so much I can do each day.