Posted on 06/06/2020 7:10:57 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Fearful Americans and overconfident Chinese both believe that China is an unstoppable economic juggernaut “rising” across the Pacific—and poised to displace the U.S. The Chinese government’s willingness to court international condemnation over its violent subjugation of Hong Kong and the Trump administration’s efforts to limit Chinese access to U.S. technology and research universities can both be understood as consequences of this shared belief.
Anything is possible. Yet the likelier outcome is that China’s relative economic power will soon hit its zenith before entering a sustained period of decline. American officials should be more sanguine about their global position, while their Chinese counterparts should be more circumspect and less presumptuous about the trajectory of world history.
Consider Khrushchev. “Whether you like it or not,” he famously told a delegation of western diplomats in November 1956, “history is on our side. We will bury you!” While analysts and historians have debated exactly what the Soviet leader meant, the official explanation was that he was expressing his confidence in the superiority of the Soviet system and the eventual collapse of the capitalist West.
At first, Khrushchev’s confidence seemed reasonable. Between the end of World War II and the mid-1970s, output per person in the Soviet Union rose from 30% of the U.S. level to 60%, with most of that growth occurring in the two decades after his speech. Unfortunately for the Soviets, that long boom had been a mirage. Rising energy prices and a debt binge had temporarily inflated Soviet purchasing power.
Once those tailwinds reversed over the course of the 1980s, the Soviet economy steadily lost ground compared with the U.S. before it eventually imploded. According to the latest estimates from the Maddison Project at the University of Groningen, average incomes in the former Soviet Union are now only 34% of U.S
(Excerpt) Read more at barrons.com ...
Communist China:
Biggest debt bubble EVER.
Biggest currency printing bubble EVER.
I doubt we will have to wait until 2040 (as the article suggests) to see then slow down.
As long as President Trump is our President I agree. I Biden somehow gets to be President there will be loud cheering in China.
Great article. They caught the coming demographic crash China will experience. But the Wuhan flu and the current trade war with the US may hurt them sooner.
For those who don’t know, China’s ‘One Child’ policy created about 140 million more men than women. Without childbearing women, the population crashes.
Demographics are destiny.
The United States faces an impossible demographic transformation
China has historically relied on war, famine and disease to cull out the weak. That in their minds, results in a stronger people that will then repopulate with even stronger people.
Jeeze. This sounds like the USA today.
“Why not just let them die off?”
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There is a cultural veneration for ancestors. But it is expensive to feed and house the elderly that are no longer productive.
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Today’s Chinese elderly are living much longer than say even 20 years ago.
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Many fertile young women have new economic options and aren’t having kids. The one child policy ended years ago but the birth rate continues to drop.
What a strange and uninformed statement: “History is on our side.”
That flucker should have been saying that treachery, double-dealing and espionage was working in their favor.
"Over the past decade in U.S. war games against China, the U.S. has nearly a perfect record: we have lost almost every single time.
"The American people do not know this. Most members of Congress do not know this -- even though they should. But in the Department of Defense, this is a well known fact."
He feels China has checkmated the U.S. in projection of military power. The author, a former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee, says:
"China may be capable of denying domininace to America, but America can do the same to China. And that should be our goal: preventing China from achieving a position of military dominance in Asia."
Apparently the Barron’s author hasn’t read the Chinese plan outlined in the CCP’s book, “Unrestricted Warfare”. They have no intention of playing by any rules of international order and the pandemic is just the latest example of their ruthlessness. They are feverishly working to nullify our dominance in intelligence and communication satellites and have developed submarine detection and tracking capabilities that will allow them to destroy our nuclear fleet. Read Bill Gertz’s book, “Deceiving the Sky”, or General Robert Spaulding’s book, “Stealth War”, if you want to actually be informed and not hypnotized by the globalist subscribers to Barron’s that profit from Chinese slave labor.
“The life expectancy problem can be solved by shortening it severely.”
Marxist do this. Pol Pot in Cambodia killed between 15 and 30 percent of the population. The true number is unknown but 20 percent may be accurate. If such were in the United States it would be 60 million political executions.
Oddly Pol Pot did this with not joy or anger. He was a committed Marxist and it was necessary for his revolution to succeed and bring Cambodia to a greater and perfect good. Thus the massive loss of life was most justified for the more perfect society for all he envisioned.
In reality he was a murderous evil son of bitch that killed with abandon for the greater good that was not good.
ANTIFA shares the same philosophy.
The Second Amendment is important!
Earlier in my career I worked for a number of Hong Kong expatriates who were clients of mine in the real estate business in Canada. To a man, they would laugh at the idea that China would ever be a threat as a dominant global power. They described a Chinese culture that was so corrupt, dysfunctional and backward that it didn’t even have the most basic foundations of a strong global power.
Shall we all just suicide out now?
Arm up.
For over 35 years the US Army discouraged in every way the publication of any detailed operational narrative dealing with the period following the entrance of the CCF into the Korean War. Appleman’s book shows why and just how deadly the PLA can be as an opponent.
Yeah, I wonder if they still have the same sentiment. Probably not. Besides, they probably didn’t think we were so corrupt that we would throw away freedom and democracy for socialism, which is just the first stepping stone towards communism.
Bullshit from a once good magazine. It is precisely when Red China’s economic decline begins that they become militarily aggressive against Hong Kong (who’s going to defend them, SecDef Esper, Mattis, Gen. Allen?), Taiwan (possibly hit by small nukes, the islands around the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, etc.
A wounded communist beast is most dangerous when it feels that it is losing power.
I’m sure that Pres. Joe Biden will act decisively after he decides that the Republic of China/Taiwan/Quemoy/Matsu is the enemy, not Peking.
RE: Earlier in my career I worked for a number of Hong Kong expatriates who were clients of mine in the real estate business in Canada. To a man, they would laugh at the idea that China would ever be a threat as a dominant global power. They described a Chinese culture that was so corrupt, dysfunctional and backward that it didn’t even have the most basic foundations of a strong global power.
If by “earlier in my career”, you’re talking about say, the 1990’s then that no longer applies. Things have changed and China has become more powerful since.
Learn to speak Chinese. A nation’s power rests on its human capital. 30 million Chinese are studying classical piano. U.S. kids are studying rap. Compare the number of STEM students in the U.S. and China. Compare the number of diversity councillors. I was born in the U.S., a country that no longer exists. Can you smell that stench. It is the odor of a dead civilization.
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