Posted on 05/30/2020 8:15:19 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Xi Jinping, during his appearance at the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in Beijing on Saturday, talked about analyzing the Chinese economy from a “dialectical and long-term perspective.”
Should we be surprised that the Chinese leader is resorting to ideological circumlocutions when his economy is contracting and he knows he can’t rescue it soon?
The official National Bureau of Statistics reported that gross domestic product contracted 6.8 percent year-on-year during the first quarter of this year, the first announced decline since Beijing began issuing quarterly GDP statistics in 1992. Many assessments, including the widely followed China Beige Book, pegged the contraction at about 10 percent.
There has been a recovery this quarter, but it is hard to figure out the extent of the upturn. “It’s the worst information flow in my experience, which means since the 1980s,” Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research told me.
Workers have returned to job sites, but it appears the uptick has not been enough to move the country into positive territory. In general, factories have been ready to fill orders, but orders, especially from offshore buyers, are scare. The coronavirus pandemic has flattened China’s biggest export markets, those in Europe and North America. UBS, the Swiss banking giant, expects Q2 growth to remain negative.
The full-year does not look much better. The normally China-bullish International Monetary Fund forecasts the Chinese economy to grow only 1.2 percent this year. Private analysts believe growth will range between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent. For last year, Beijing reported the economy grew 6.1 percent.
It is evident that China will not have, as analysts had once predicted, a V-shaped recovery. An L-shaped one—a long-drawn-out climb out of a hole—is more like it.
Even Chinese officials do not appear confident.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalinterest.org ...
Some theoretical common denominators concerning China. The leaders absolutely do not care about the peasants. China, despite the population control efforts, still has way far more peasants than it has an economy to employ them all. If worse comes to shove then the Chinese government could start a war(which would kill a bunch of peasants) or the Chinese government could just simply starve to death a few million peasants. And no war. Remember, Communist hates the people that it pledges to protect.
There’s also this old chestnut: Go to some form of war as a way of uniting a population otherwise unhappy with poor economic results.
This could develop much like the Soviet collapse. They will fight and hang on, keep up a pretense of making it until one day it all falls apart.
That will be a very good day for the world, just like December 26, 1991.
That assumes Democrats don’t take power here. They will save China from that demise.
When this is all over, China will have lot a lot of manufacturing, and a brain drain from Hong Kong where everyone that can leave will leave. On the other hand, the US will be gaining jobs as factories, and especially the pharmaceutical industry, relocates back to the US.
And Trump’s slamming them with tariffs sure didn’t help them. They are already unable to feed themselves, and it is estimated that the tariffs placed on them have cost them $35B, has lowered their exports to the US by more than 12% this year alone, and industrial output growth in China fell to its lowest level in 17 years this summer. I think we call this winning.
And this information is coming from NPR, hardly a conservative lapdog.
rwood
Gordon Chang. Is he or is he not a wannabe John Bolton?
The chicoms grow at 1.5 to 2.5%.
Meanwhile we and the rest of the world don’t grow at all.
Nice job with the germ warfare CCP and your WHO accomplices.
I predict War by August—a chain reaction of events that will unify Red China but evolve into WW III. This will put the last nail in the coffin of Globalism. Move on Taiwan or Vietnam will kick this off. It will be USA/UK India and Japan vs. Red China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and several African Nations. Many so called friends will stand down like Spain, Germany, France and Canada. In the middle of the war Russia will join the fight on our side. Fantasy—I hope so. Two year war take an estimated 15 million lives.
Pity. Where will Walmart get their merchandise made?
Honestly, what nation on earth isn’t a ready candidate for the wrath of God?
“Is he or is he not a wannabe John Bolton?”
A little. They both agree that China is a bad influence and in trouble. But the main difference is that Bolton takes them on directly, like in the UN, and Chang sits back patiently waiting for them to implode. But both feel the outcome the same.
rwood
RE: Gordon Chang. Is he or is he not a wannabe John Bolton?
I’m getting impatient with Gordon Chang. The man wrote the book THE COMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA almost 20 years ago in which he claimed that the hidden nonperforming loans of the “Big Four” Chinese state banks would likely bring down China’s financial system and its communist government.
Well.... I’M WAITING !!!
“The Trump administration should openly encourage a change in China’s leadership”
why? what guarantee is there that some far worse despot than Xi won’t take over?
didn’t we have enough of that “regime change”, “nation building” bullshit under the Bushes, Clinton and Obama? How has that worked out? It hasn’t. All we got were a bunch more failed nations providing additional breeding grounds for international terrorists ...
Fortunately, President Trump repudiated all of that, and it’s one of the reasons that so many FReepers and conservatives like myself voted for him ...
I wonder if the Chinese allowed the Wuhan virus to spread in China because it would help eliminate a layer of old or sick people that the CCP didn’w want to support given the downturn in their economy.
Perhaps they are encourage a second or third wave of the virus as a new-age form of population reduction.
Wouldn’t put it past them.
India and China. Got KI tablets? Order now to beat that last minute rush!
You may remember reading about the Soviet food shortage under Stalin. His remedy, quickly lessening the population of the Ukraine, to bring up the amount of food throughout the nation.
Since Communist China has a whole lot of fledglings in their nest, I would not rule out a population lessening, in any manner to mask the truth of a killoff, via a strange and unusual die off.
“Well.... I’M WAITING !!!”
Your question: “Is he or is he not a wannabe John Bolton?”
I gave you the answer to that in post #31:
“But the main difference is that Bolton takes them on directly, like in the UN, and Chang sits back patiently waiting for them to implode. But both feel the outcome the same.”
You asked me what I thought. If you desire to find out why and where I came up with it, ask. But here’s are parts of the reason I made my answer:
He was a very vocal on China with comments even during the Trump administration. In 2018, Bolton criticized Washington’s One-China policy, under which Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, is not recognized as an independent nation, with recognition being given only to the People’s Republic of China.
On China’s notoriety in intellectual property matters, he remarked in 2018 that “There’s simply no excuse for the stealing of intellectual property, forced technology transfers it’s sometimes called.” We do it also, just like everyone else in the world.
Bolton said in October 2018 that the United States’ need to counter a Chinese arms buildup in the Pacific, including within South China Sea, was one of the reasons for their move to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia, because China is not a signatory to the treaty.
During the Republican primary, Republican presidential-hopeful Newt Gingrich said he would ask Bolton to serve as his Secretary of State. In January 2012, Bolton endorsed Mitt Romney for the 2012 Republican Nomination.
In July 2013, Bolton was identified as a key member of Groundswell, a secretive coalition of activists and journalists attempting to advance political change behind the scenes through lobbying of high-level contacts.
There are other things, positive and negative, about Bolton, starting as early as his work in the Bush administration.
He’s a loose cannon and has been removed from diplomatic chores and final decisions by three presidents concerning Bolton’s theory on diplomacy. The last example was President Trump removing John R. Bolton in September of 2019 as national security advisor amid fundamental disputes over how to handle major foreign policy challenges like Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan.
Are you still waiting? I think I gave you plenty with the tip of the iceberg. There’s more, but it gets redundant.
rwood
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