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New study says Massachusetts coronavirus rates are much higher than reported and could rise steeply [up to 800 people each day]
Boston Globe ^ | May 24, 2020, | Laura Crimaldi

Posted on 05/29/2020 4:55:04 PM PDT by daniel1212

The estimates from Imperial College London said the virus has already infected about 13 percent of the state’s 6.9 million residents....“Over 80 percent of [Massachusetts] hasn’t been infected yet,” said Samuel Scarpino, an epidemiologist at Northeastern University. “We’re going to be susceptible to another wave of infections.”...If mobility returns to 20 percent of what it was before the pandemic, COVID-19 could kill about 500 people daily by the end of June, the researchers said. If mobility increases to 40 percent of pre-pandemic levels, the virus could claim the lives of about 800 people each day, the model said. Massachusetts experienced its highest number of deaths in COVID-19 patients to date on April 24 when 195 patients died, state figures show.

As of Saturday, the state has confirmed the deaths of 6,372 people who were infected with COVID-19.

Samir Bhatt, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London, said the estimates are “pessimistic” and assume “that the relationship between mobility and disease transmission remains constant.”“We do not address the potential effect of additional behavioural changes or interventions, such as increased mask-wearing or testing and tracing strategies,” Bhatt wrote in an e-mail...

A small study conducted by Massachusetts General Hospital and the Boston Public Health Commission found 10 percent of Boston residents have the antibodies that indicate they had COVID-19 and fought it off...Imperial College London’s COVID-19 modeling has influenced responses to the pandemic at the highest levels of government.

Its estimate in March that 510,000 would die in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States if the outbreak remained unchecked persuaded Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, to adopt more extreme measures to combat the virus and was cited during a news conference by Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covidcaptivity; covidphobia
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Excerpt of Globe fearmongering: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/24/metro/british-study-says-massachusetts-corona-rates-much-higher-than-reported-could-rise-steeply/
1 posted on 05/29/2020 4:55:04 PM PDT by daniel1212
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To: daniel1212

All of Trump’s (and our) enemies are out in force everywhere it seems.


2 posted on 05/29/2020 4:56:53 PM PDT by dp0622 (Trump!!)
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To: All

BS. This scam is dead. They are moving to race riots now.


3 posted on 05/29/2020 4:57:31 PM PDT by gibsonguy
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To: dp0622

How are the numbers in Minnesota?


4 posted on 05/29/2020 4:57:55 PM PDT by funfan
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To: daniel1212

Clearly, the only solution is to hit Massachusetts with a neutron bomb ASAP. Be sure to get Liz Warren and the entire Harvard faculty. Wouldn’t want them to suffer from the corona.


5 posted on 05/29/2020 4:57:55 PM PDT by madprof98
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To: daniel1212
Then there is the question:

Does COVID-19 truly warrant a nationwide shutdown?

No, and that has been made increasingly clear. The predicted dire need for hospital beds did not overall materialize, while most of those who were infected and died have been among those who are quarantined, especially elder care facilities which account for over 40% of US deaths.[1] And even with a worse-case example - far removed from the average[2] - Word Meters finds that New York City (May 1) had an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 1.4% and a 0.28% crude mortality rate (CMR) to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population.[3] (In New York city there is normally a a death every 9.1 minutes.[4] and primarily due to its COVID-19 death rate New York state constitutes about 29% of all reported COVID-19 deaths as of May 26, with over 19,000 deaths per million,[5] and which heavily affects the overall mortality rate of the US.[6])

Up to about 80 percent of those infected with COVID-19 are estimated to be silent carriers, [7][8] meaning they show no symptoms (the New York City labor and delivery unit found 88 percent of infected patients had no symptoms, [9] while over 600 sailors on the coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt tested positive, yet 60% of them had no symptoms such as fever, fatigue, or cough,[10]and in four U.S. state prisons nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus yet 96% were without symptoms[11] and or recover without medical care[12]) Which means that the infected fatality rate is much lower than the misleading case fatality rate that is usually quoted.

Meanwhile the vast majority of those who die because it are 65 years-old or more[13] and with almost 25% of all documented Covid-assigned (which does not mean the subject was tested for Covid) fatalities in the US (91,976 as of May 18 at 8:49PM EDT) are from New York (28,480)[14] and according to one report 54% of all U.S. deaths were in the 100 counties in or within 100 miles of NYC.

And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that almost 90 percent of U.S. coronavirus patients who have been hospitalized had underlying health problems, or comorbidities.[15]

And which relates to the issue of inaccurate fatality numbers, partly due to the problem of determining the actual cause of death and the CDC guidelines which allow for reporting COVID-19 as the “probable” or “presumed” cause on the death certificate if the certifier even suspects COVID-19 was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), the cause.[16] Which resulted in NYC suddenly adding 3,700 additional people to its death count[17](also, Federal legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment[18]), leading to charges of over-counting[19][20] while Pennsylvania removed some after coroner reports.[21] Later, Colorado’s Health Department revised their official coronavirus death count from 1,150 as of May 15 downward to 878 (a reduction of 23.7 percent) and created two separate distinguishing categories, one of people who died directly because of the virus and another of people who had COVID-19 at their time of death but died of other causes that may not be attributable to the virus.[22][23] However, some others believe the problem is more that of under-counting. [24]

Also, another study finds that the risk of coronavirus spreading in schools is 'extremely low'.[25]

And while states continue to parrot the “stay sheltered” mantra, research shows that sunlight destroys virus quickly[26], and even a Department of Homeland Security official affirmed that increasing temperatures, humidity and sunlight are detrimental to coronavirus saliva droplets on surfaces and in the air.[27] Also, over 600 doctors signed onto a letter sent to President Trump favoring an end the "national shutdown," referring to it as being a "mass casualty incident" with "exponentially growing health consequences."[28]

Yet miles upon miles of parks and public waterfronts are shutdown, and for too long NY put infected persons in nursing homes[29] (and as of April 26, about 40 percent of COVID-19 deaths were in the state of New York alone. New Jersey was in second place, with nearly 5,900[30]yet the death rate is uncritically employed to justify nationwide lockdowns) while in states such as Illinois law-breaking prisoners were released from their “quarantine” - including some “high risk” sexual offenders[31] and some convicted of murder - [32] and almost a third of county jail inmates have been released from facilities during the coronavirus pandemic.[33] Meanwhile over 2,000[34] of the most vulnerable souls a day in “quarantine” - their mother’s womb - are murdered, many by the same persons claim to be for protecting the vulnerable.

Moreover, the extremely restrictive all-ages long-term response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history except (to a degree) that of the 1918 flu (in which baseball was still played) which up t 675,000 deaths are attributed.[35]

The Asian flu pandemic of 1957-1958 resulted in a estimated 116,000 deaths in America[36] (followed by the Hong Kong flu with about est. 100,000 American deaths in 1968–69), when at about 173,000,000, the population size in 57-58 was close to half of what it is now (330,541,000, rounded figures).

Meaning that not only was the infection death rate much higher than for COVID-19, but there would have to be about 200,000 COVID-19 est. deaths to be comparable to the Asian flu as regards percentaged of population. Yet that would simply make it basically equal as concerns the numbers of deaths in proportion to population size, but to justify the "CovidCaptivity," one would have to argue that the Asian flu should have necessitated a response like that to COVID-19. The Soviets would have favored that for sure.

The question then is, where was the COVID-19 comparative response in 57-58 in proportion to its threat? Yes, the 116,000 deaths in America to the Asian flu was for the whole year, yet even if we reach about 200,000 deaths (we pray not) for COVID-19 then that type of equality would still mean that the extremely restrictive all-ages long-term response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history, except to a degree with the far more deadly (550,000 to 675,000 Americans, or 0.66% of the population) 1918 flu.

And during which medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented deaths among patients; and infections among medical staff. [37]

Finally, the long-term cost for the questionable[38]“cure” - as meaning preventing deaths via the stay-sheltered COVID captivity - will be more costly in lives and money [39] including psychosocial consequences[40] than a more moderate response that would allow for a faster rise in cases but a better decrease and overall a more healthy populace in the long run. [41][42][43]

Economically, estimates project total losses in state and local revenue of up to 45 percent, effecting 90,000 nonfederal-government entities that provide and pay for most of the government services that Americans receive.[44] And while states look to the Federal government to bail them out, the additional costs and declining revenues stemming from Covid-19 are expected to produce a 2020 budget deficit in excess of $4.2 trillion.[45]

And most of government income comes from taxes, via businesses and those who are employed ( income taxes, payroll taxes, and corporate taxes)[46], yet businesses are failing across America, and in New York alone the governor stated that small businesses constitute “90 percent of New York's businesses” and “more than 100,000 have shut permanently since the pandemic hit.”[47]

Moreover (as of May 20), with 2.43 million in America filing for an unemployment,[48] the rate is at least 20%.[49] Also, according to one meta-analysis of 42 studies involving 20 million people, the risk of death increases 63 percent when one loses their job, and that for every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there are 37,000 deaths, mainly from heart attacks, but another 1,000 from suicides and another 650 from homicides.[50]

And as concerns just suicide, we have reports such as “Calls to suicide and help hotline in Los Angeles increase 8,000% due to coronavirus,”[51] and “Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus,”[52]

Yet while we seek to save lives, 7,000 Americans die every day in the US from a wide range of causes [53] - besides over 2,000 a day being slain in the “quarantine” of their mother’s womb[54] - my prayer is that all sinners will come to repentance and faith in the risen Lord Jesus and be baptized and follow Him.

Hope this helps. PeaceByJesus

Footnotes

[1] STAGGERING: Nursing Home Residents Account for a Whopping 43.4% of COVID-19 Deaths, Even Though They're Less Than 1% of the U.S. Population

6 posted on 05/29/2020 4:58:12 PM PDT by daniel1212 (Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: daniel1212
"IMPERIAL COLLEGE"..., and we all now know how accurate their "Data Modeling" is..., don't we!
7 posted on 05/29/2020 4:59:02 PM PDT by ExSES (the "bottomhttps://youtu.be/ycrqXJYf1SU-line")
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To: daniel1212

Fearmongering indeed. I guess all the reports which have thoroughly discredited the Imperial College Model go conveniently ignored by the fish wrap AKA Boston Globe.
In fact, the “professor” who created that garbage has resigned in disgrace.


8 posted on 05/29/2020 5:00:22 PM PDT by ocrp1982
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To: daniel1212

If one in eight were infected and each of us encounter dozens of people every week then why hasn’t the full population been exposed?


9 posted on 05/29/2020 5:00:48 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: All

No one cares anymore. Lets just move on. The death rate in Mass is as high as it is because Gov. Charlie Parker put sick people into nursing homes.


10 posted on 05/29/2020 5:01:11 PM PDT by escapefromboston (Free Assange)
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To: daniel1212

OMG!
WE ARE GOING TO DIE

If, could, maybe, possibly, BUT IN THE END WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE.


11 posted on 05/29/2020 5:02:20 PM PDT by dirtymac (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.(DT4POTUS))
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To: daniel1212

Orwell assumed government would perpetrate war constantly against its own people. Instead, government is reality, will perpetuate virus across the population to completely control us and remove our rights and freedoms.

JoMa


12 posted on 05/29/2020 5:02:53 PM PDT by joma89 (Buy weapons and ammo, folks.)
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To: daniel1212

Massachusetts is going to send 800 people a day to nursing homes???


13 posted on 05/29/2020 5:04:55 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: daniel1212

Massachusetts is going to send 800 people a day to nursing homes???


14 posted on 05/29/2020 5:05:44 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: daniel1212

Mass. has a bad strain from the Biogen conference which in turn immediately infected Indiana.


15 posted on 05/29/2020 5:08:08 PM PDT by RummyChick ( Yeah, it's Daily Mail. So what.)
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To: escapefromboston

Reporting from the front lines I am from Boston yet staying on the north shore as per usual.


16 posted on 05/29/2020 5:10:49 PM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: RummyChick

So true!


17 posted on 05/29/2020 5:11:36 PM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: ExSES
"IMPERIAL COLLEGE"..., and we all now know how accurate their "Data Modeling" is..., don't we!

As in, A recent (analysis from Imperial College) is now making some Americans, (including many experts, panic.) The report projects that (2.2 million people) could die in the United States. (The Atlantic ^ | March 19, 2020 | Aaron E. Carroll & Ashish Jha; https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/how-we-beat-coronavirus/608389/) While such extremes are conditional scenarios, they do not warrants the extreme unprecedented response.

18 posted on 05/29/2020 5:17:45 PM PDT by daniel1212 (Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: daniel1212

Yea, this isn’t March or April. We know enough about the virus to be surgical in our approach.
It’s China’s fault that we didn’t earlier!

A month of shutdown was a good idea considering how little we knew. But that broadbrush effort is no longer wise.


19 posted on 05/29/2020 5:20:46 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts (M / F) : Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
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To: daniel1212

800 people a day. Why not 1 million?


20 posted on 05/29/2020 5:24:03 PM PDT by Trillian
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