Posted on 05/22/2020 9:09:32 PM PDT by conservative98
Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.
The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativereview.com ...
From the CDC article - “The parameters in the scenarios:
Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.”
Meanwhile in the real word .24% of the population of NYC - 21,086 people out of 8,400,000 - have died of Covid19 in the last 10 weeks. Assuming every single one of the 8,400,000 people is infected with the virus, the death rate is .24%. Antibody testing shows 21% of residents were infected, or 1,764,000 people were infected, so the death rate is 1.2%. But the horse crap from idiots about “its just the flu” will never end.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#download
I’m going to Vegas next week to stay with a friend for a week. In the meantime got in touch with a friend from 40 years ago that lives there now. Was really looking forward to having lunch with him and talking over old times. Nope! He’s in his house and not coming out. Won’t see anyone except his son and the grocery delivery guy who leaves the groceries by the door. Makes me sad. He’s 73 and I’ll probably never get the chance to see him now.
We will hit 100,000 sometime Monday or Tuesday. The media will do an all out blitz on this “milestone”. I’m expecting the alphabets, with FOX included to do wall to wall coverage. Then they will predict that the numbers will “go much higher”. Of course the obligatory reports on the number of people in the free states that went out and infected everyone else will be top priority as well. Meanwhile the actual stats of mortality are probably half that number. I mean being murderer in South Side Chicago, but having Covid test positive, really means you died of Covid in New Amerika.
2 CON ARTIST
Wow!
You do know that all viral URI effects put folks with underlying conditions and age at greater risk than those w/I and younger?
SARS and immune response are dangerous, but we don’t isolate everyone from everything. Common cold, influenza and the exotic strains of similar effect have been harming that population segment since Creation, well the Fall.
Of course we should be careful, but the cost of isolation of everyone and shutdown may show out to be even worse a killer than SARS Cov2.
The data is still being considered, hang in there, the govt won’t be paying your bills anytime soon, thankfully ( money/wealth is labor, not paper or digits), so the economy must get burning. Poverty has always killed more than disease and war.
Think about it.
And for this the FauXi destroyed millions of American livelihoods and small businesses, wasted Trillions of taxpayer dollars and further attempted to take down Trump.
He's in this up to his grandstanding eyeballs.
Demand the immediate arrest of the micro-Nazi A-hole, and liquidate all of his assets....individual and class-action lawsuits should be forthcoming.
.
YOU expect truth out of the leftist media when it goes against their poisonous agenda ????
.
BOYCOTT Leftist Media - and anyone who does business with those betrayers.
.
It’s so sad, isn’t it? I’m sure we’re not alone. I hate the fear tactics.
lol That is pretty amazing. We beat you by a month.
My recollection is; that was shortly after the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke. FR was one of the only place on the web where you could find up to date information. The MSM sites all tried to bury it.
It was a vastly different site back then. But, it’s still a great place to get breaking news, and eventually, some insightful commentary.
“as long as they are sure they will never be in the same room with their parents or grandparents again until there is an 80% effective vaccine or cure.”
Quite possibly the most moronic statement I have read in quite some time. For my part HCQ and zinc will suffice with the onset of symptoms
As for you, get in your corner and cower your life away! Quick before illness befalls you!!
Do not infect the greater collective with your sniveling fearmongering. Your thinking is an embarrassment.
0.26%. = in english is: 1/4 of 1.0% !?
I don't know about all the other countries, but in the United States, outside of NYC, it's been pretty close.
I'm not one that would say this is "not serious". But, are the affects enough to justify this complete lockdown? I don't think so. The economic consequences of that are pretty darn high too.
It's a hard thing to accept that some people are going die, sooner than they should have. But personally, I'd rather take my chances at that, with nature being "the decider" than have politicians and un-elected technocrats making arbitrary decisions on which business and careers "live or die".
And yes, I am in a couple of the "at risk" groups. >60, moderately obese, and taking ACE inhibitors for high blood pressure. I will continue to take all the precautions I can reasonably take. But, my two sons are a extremely low risk.
Thank you, Owen, for injecting a bit of realism here.
I cannot find ANY report from the CDC about the death rate being so incredibly below what actual case and death data shows. Lots of interesting stuff about Covid-19 at the CDC website, but nothing stating that.
I honestly do not know why people have latched onto this narrative that there are vast numbers of asymptomatic cases. If anything, this is a terrible scenario! When someone has symptoms, they can be easily identified and avoided. But if someone has no symptoms, you have no idea who might give you a terrible disease that can cause organ damage and even kill you.
The fact that this spreads from presymptomatic people is bad enough.
I have no idea what you are talking about. The was not a scintilla of valuing lives according to age in what I said.
Would you agree that if the disease was primarily affecting ten-year-olds, that the emphasis in public policy might wisely be directed at protecting them, rather than force-fitting the same policy for all age groups?
We have established previously that anything published anywhere by anyone that contradicts the opinion you formed months ago is completely invisible to you even if quoted all caps in bold with the color changed to purple. Here is a clue... look at the tables with the data! Here is the link from the article:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
The CDC report is the COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. Importantly, this is NOT an analysis of the actual spread of the disease.
The parameters in the scenarios:
--Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
--Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
--Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.
I am actually dumbfounded as to why people love so much the narrative that Covid-19 is widespread and that there are millions of asymptomatic carriers. This is actually far worse than the actual situation, and betrays a complete lack of understanding about infectious disease.
For people complaining about the lock downs and having to wear masks, stay 6 feet away from everyone else, etc., understand that one of the reasons for this is the fact that Covid-19 does spread before infected people show symptoms. If asymptomatic spread were not a thing, the restrictions would not have to be so stringent.
Notice that that is a compilation of planning scenarios and is NOT an assessment of the actual boots on the ground Covid-19 situation.
I addressed that in reply #57.
Unlike you, I actually read (and understand) the pertinent information, scientific papers, case data, etc. Just like I did when I did this kind of work for a living.
Horowitz: The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?
conservative review ^ | · May 22, 2020 | Daniel Horowitz
Posted on 5/22/2020, 11:09:32 PM by conservative98
Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.
The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.
Yeah, I sort of knew I had extrapolated a bit too much with the degree of murder analogy.
Yes, deaths concentrate among the old. If it was cancer, which does the same, clearly there’s no reason to social distance the populace because cancer is generally not contagious. But . . . covid is not cancer. It is contagious.
Look, we’ve done all sorts of things in society, and accepted them, because some problem afflicts society. We have laws all over the books pointed at drunk driving and it only kills 10,000 people a year. We don’t complain about those laws, and it’s only 10,000 people.
To your question, Spanish flu killed mostly the young. Not the old. The young had/have strong immune systems and when the Spanish flu virus was detected by a young person’s body, it reacted with a huge surge of defense and this was a cytokine storm and killed the patient.
In 1918 viruses were vaguely known about. Filters had found that a level of porosity that stopped bacteria still let some infectious something get through. It was thought of as very small bacteria. Genetic strands were not understood then. It was presumed to simply be a very small bacteria. This is why quarantine efforts took place. You can find pictures from the time of people wearing masks. You can find pictures of baseball players wearing masks.
And that was for a disease that killed mostly the young. Measures taken across the country varied. Total shut down some places. Less shutdown other places. Essentially NOWHERE was there no shutdown at all. Children were not the primary targets of that H1N1 virus, it was age 20-40, but they still shut down schools and did “school by phone”.
The point here is I guess 1918 is so far back that we have no memory of it. But if you spend some time reading about Spanish Flu quarantines you’ll see American DID once react to a plague.
There are differences. There is the internet. In 1918 when lockdown was in effect, people put on masks and emptied out bookstores and magazine racks. There are many mentions of job loss at magazine stands because they sold out in a couple of hours to people desperately bored. The magazine stand worker closed up and went home, and paid by the hour he was hit hard.
Did you know the saying “all dressed up and no place to go” came from the Spanish flu? Newspaper ads showed women dressed up but nowhere to go, and tried to sell things to the women (boxes of candy!) in the ad.
Lockdown is not unprecedented. Regardless of target age.
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