COVID-19 Update - 05/21/2020

My own workup | 05/21/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 64

As of 05/20/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Yesterday's Summary in a Nutshell

It was another record breaking day, this time for Wednesday. Every day from
Saturday on has been a record this week. Tomorrow will be no different. Russia
and Brazil are the two new big hot spots, and they are cranking out new cases.
The Global new cases came in at 101,781.

The previous record was 92,652 on May eighth., so this was a sizable increase.

For the United States the numbers for the day rose from Tuesday's numbers.
The day before we had 20,289 cases. Wednesday saw 21,408. Last Wednesday
came in at 21,712.

As for Fatalities, the Global numbers wound up at 4,787 for the day, coming
in just six cases higher than the 4,781 figure from the day before.

Our Fatalities for Wednesday came in at 1,408. The day before it was 1,552.
Well see how we do heading into the heavy numbers part of the week.

Territories, Other Entites Have Additional Location in the Update

I have been posting the Territories/Other Entities in it's own location at
the end of the States Comparison section. That will remain there. Starting
tonight I will also provide these entites at the bottom of the States Alphabetical printout. (where I compare states with numerous sourts)

United States figures have come from both the states and these Territories
and other entities. Tonight for the first time they will be grouped so
that you can see the full total of them all, and compare to the U. S.
national numbers. They'll match up if I do things right. Don't hold your
breath. LOL (some nights...)

Additional Feature Added / Testing and New Case Declarations

I was asked to address and compare Testing with New Case declarations. At
the bottom of the USA Section: 02, you'll see a new set of Data and a Chart.
The percentage of New Cases compared to the Tests administered is what I think
folks wanted to see. It's there with the Data and Chart.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

You can see the increased Case Count today. We're in a low range, but it is
Wednesday. The real weekly test will heat up now as we head toward Friday.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Fatalities went down yesterday, even as we headed deeper into the week. We'll
look into the exact numbers down below.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Our slice of the global pie has been getting smaller. I'm glad to see this.

All these little indicators support the idea we are moving in the right
direction. These slice of the pie numbers have been dropping for twelve days
now. Numbers of Resolved Cases are growing, and the increase in the Active
Case category is slowing down.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

All three indicators here point to a flattening out of remaining Active Cases.

The lower numbers of new Cases coupled with the rate of reported recoveries
are causing the Active Cases to grow noticably slower.

Really liking that seven-day line there.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. This following Data addresses that.

I went back as far as I could in my records. I plan on keeping a running
30 day display here, with the Chart starting on 04/21 & 04/23 ongoing.

You can see how the Declared Cases to Testing percentage has gone down over
time.

You can also see a big problem there. The accumlative number of tests given
was way overstated for yesteray. Look at the third column and how out of sync
it is with the other days. I'll have to make an adjustment tomorrow.

Please disregard that data on the line for 05/20. Every things will be off
there. This seems to be data that is frequently sketchy. You can see my note
below for the 16th, same type of thing.

Here is a chart to reveal visually what the decline has looked like.

Folks can determine for themselves just how New Cases are affected by the
Testing. Please disregard the last day on that line. It was messed up by
above data problem. I'll work on that tomorrow.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

The growth of new Global Cases outside China is not going well. Those
nations we've been tracking with over 1,000 cases each, there are 104 of them
now, and some of them are growing exponentially. Brazil and Russia are two that
are.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Again, I don't believe there is anything unusual here today.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Well, a little better yesterday...

Globally out side China and the U. S., the numbers are a mess. That middle
number there is the highest it has been, and it indicates and out of control
situation. Look at those numbers go up.

Well, we're supposed to be in a valley here, but guess what, there's a lot
less valley than usual. On the Global scene, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday
and now Wednesday, have been record days for the day of the week. I'll touch
on this more down below.

Our day wasn't bad today, but Globally outside China, things are on fire.
It's not looking good. Check out the direction of those red lines above.
It's fitting that Excel chose red for them.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

If you look closely at that last one, it shows that just when things looked
ready to flatten out, new nations caught fire with COVID-19, and up when the
count of Cases again.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

The same comments fit for about each day here.

The chart of Cases, causes the perception that it is in conflict with the
second chart below it. Actually it isn't. It is depicting raw numbers
of New Cases. Down below the chart addresses per million numbers.

They appear to skew, but everything is accurate here.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

The New Cases number was a new record for a Wednesday. On the right that
Declared Cases resolution percentage continues to grow.

We should be at 50% by the 28th to the 30th of May. As it has been going,
we may actually hit 50% earlier than that. We'll see.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.

Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Our number of declared Fatalities went down yesterday, but I urge folks to
review the CDC's Provisional numbers bellow. I am not touting this count
(94,941), but it's out there so I mention it.

Here is the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominous there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Our numbers of new Fatalities went down yesterday. Heading deeper into the
the week we went down ever as the Global community has been breaking records.
Good for us!

Here are two charts to go with the above data.

These each seem to be taking a little bounce up, then down. We'll have to
watch this one closely.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Looking back, yesterday's figure looks a lot better. Glad to be down in
the range we're in that some of the ranges not so long ago.

Despite moving up, we're still lower than we have been, but again, for how long?

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Not liking the trend here for us. I want to see our infection percentage drop.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Right now in the Global scene, some of these nations are going exponential.
It's sad to see. Sadly, those folks can infect other nations too depening on
how things are handled. Other nations need to stay on top of things,
including our own.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Yesterday's numbers were a new record fo the day. That has happened five days in a row now. Our figure yesterday was higher than the highest day for a
Thursday, so it's looking like a record Thursday is just ahead.

Not liking this one bit. I want to see everyone windong down.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

I'm contemplating moving these numbers under the states on the Alphabetical
list. The states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match
that of the U. S. figures each day. I'm kind of short changing these
states in that one alphabetical list, I'll be able to combine the numbers
so that folks can evaluate things better.

I may change it. I may not. Thinking...

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

We covered the problem of over-reporting above. Here we have been moved up
to 34th place, but that was clearly based on a bugus wildly high number of
tests give today. We generally have 300-450 thousand tests per day. Look at
that 1,593,039 numbers. It's a clerical error.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

TY. I took a quick look. Headed out to work. Catch you tomorrow as you are quite reliable.

[Jim Noble]

Great work as usual. A couple of comments:

PCR can remain positive for a long time after infection and recovery. The practice of declaring a first positive test a “case”, while understandable, now is known to include infectious and non-infectious people, which, to the extent that it is driving public policy may be an error. It is not possible currently to test for infectious virus on a mass basis, it may be that + PCR + IgG antibody = noninfectious state, TBD.

The decline in deaths is misleading to a degree (except of course to the people who are not dead). This is a complicated, fascinating disease with a steep learning curve for how to take care of critical COVID illness. A person who would have certainly died on 3/20 and who would have probably died on 4/20 will most likely survive today.

The trigger for critical COVID illness remains unknown, although the risk factors (age, diabetes, hypertension, obesity) are the same all over the world. There are people with none of these risk factors who sicken and die, so it’s not something intrinsic to the risk factors per se, maybe genetics play a role.

[Paul R.]

Brazil looks like it is making a run at us (daily new cases, daily fatalities). They are not there yet, but their curves look grim.

So far, our (US) trends look ok - it’s certainly not “great” to be losing roughly 1k people per day, but it’s better than over 2k per day. My estimate of 100k fatalities by June 1 looks like it’ll be a bit low. :-(

Current serious/critical US cases appear to still be (on average) growing a bit, but should be well within HCS capacity, esp. given that we (and likely warmer weather also) have squashed the flu. I’m not sure where we are at regarding hospitalizations, but I’d expect a similar trend: Manageable @ present, but many of our valiant HCS workers normally get a bit of a break after flu season. Not this year.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.

These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.

If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.

Here are the numbers:

May 7 Thu 16995
May 8 Fri 16978
May 9 Sat 16816
May 10 Sun 16514
May 11 Mon 16484
May 12 Tue 16473
May 13 Wed 16349
May 14 Thu 16240
May 15 Fri 16139
May 16 Sat 16248
May 17 Sun 16355
May 18 Mon 16868
May 19 Tue 17249
May 20 Wed 17815
I have not posted these numbers for a few days as the number of critical/serious cases remains about the same.

I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical data “ it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”

What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. While the death rate slowed this past week, the number of people who are serious/critical remains at the high end of the range.

I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.

[bert]

I will argue that the worldometer data is not reliable for the simple reason most nations can simply not collect accurate data on a timely basis.

Then there is China. I doubt China or India and many others have the ability to actually collect meaningful data.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

I agree with your concerns about the reliability of worldometer data.

A couple of days ago I posted a comment about Russia where worldometer is claiming that this country has about 9,000 new cases per day -— day after day after day.

On the other hand, I believe the data worldometer is collecting from the USA and Western Europe countries is far more reliable.

[Zhang Fei]

[My estimate of 100k fatalities by June 1 looks like it’ll be a bit low. :-(]

---

Don’t feel too bad. My optimistic estimate of 150K fatalities by Election Day, from a month ago, now looks way low. Now I’m looking at 200K fatalities, best case.

[Zhang Fei]

[Manageable @ present, but many of our valiant HCS workers normally get a bit of a break after flu season. Not this year.]

---

If this follows the trajectory of flu seasons, we’re gonna get it big time in the fall. March and April are usually off-months for the flu, ramping up in November and tapering off in February. But March and April were precisely when we got peak death numbers from the coronavirus.

[stylin19a]

hey...thanx again.

The pct of the population infected - .3409% is minuscule.
Consider CDC rates flu infections @ 3% to 11% per season.

The pct of the population that dies from this virus is even way smaller.
flu has a mortality of about .1%

what I’m trying to dig out is, how many re-infections...
I’ve found nothing recent about it and the earlier stuff is conjecture.

I’ll keep hunting.

Thanx for all this