On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
May 7 Thu 16995
May 8 Fri 16978
May 9 Sat 16816
May 10 Sun 16514
May 11 Mon 16484
May 12 Tue 16473
May 13 Wed 16349
May 14 Thu 16240
May 15 Fri 16139
May 16 Sat 16248
May 17 Sun 16355
May 18 Mon 16868
May 19 Tue 17249
May 20 Wed 17815
I have not posted these numbers for a few days as the number of critical/serious cases remains about the same.
I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical data “ it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. While the death rate slowed this past week, the number of people who are serious/critical remains at the high end of the range.
I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.
I will argue that the worldometer data is not reliable for the simple reason most nations can simply not collect accurate data on a timely basis.
Then there is China. I doubt China or India and many others have the ability to actually collect meaningful data.