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Neil Ferguson’s Imperial model could be the most devastating software mistake of all time
Telegraph ^
| May 16, 2020
| David Richards and Konstantin Boudnik
Posted on 05/20/2020 9:56:15 AM PDT by grundle
click here to read article
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To: grundle
Fortran is still used for all kinds of simulations and modeling. Actively supported.
21
posted on
05/20/2020 10:30:13 AM PDT
by
Feynman
To: sevlex
The “Hockey Stick” by Mann will always be the benchmark for bad models.
22
posted on
05/20/2020 10:31:01 AM PDT
by
volunbeer
(Find the truth and accept it - anything else is delusional)
To: ConservativeMind
It’s just a journalist trying to use scientific sounding words. He doesn’t understand them.
23
posted on
05/20/2020 10:31:38 AM PDT
by
Reily
To: grundle
To: Bryan24
I did the same with C and Java and got the same infinite hits.
The problem is with any computer language.
25
posted on
05/20/2020 10:34:50 AM PDT
by
ConservativeMind
(Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
To: grundle
Well, we cant have any program use 15,000 lines of code.
What a mess the world would be!
26
posted on
05/20/2020 10:37:19 AM PDT
by
ConservativeMind
(Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
To: Chauncey Gardiner
Why didn’t everyone concerned think to do another model? I would think several models should have been tested against this one.
27
posted on
05/20/2020 10:40:32 AM PDT
by
CaptainK
('No collusion, no obstruction, he's a leaker')
To: Reily
The use of FORTRAN or 15,000 lines of code as the source of the problem is completely senseless.
Its got to be something like what you state.
The problem is with the assumptions used and the direction the fashioned model goes with it. This guy is trying to shift the blame away from the biased humans behind it.
28
posted on
05/20/2020 10:41:17 AM PDT
by
ConservativeMind
(Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
To: ConservativeMind
29
posted on
05/20/2020 10:43:36 AM PDT
by
Reily
To: ConservativeMind
FORTRAN has nothing to do with any problem. This author is nuts.
completely agree. it's another one of those senseless technology/vendor based religious wars (apple! PC! oracle DB !! MSSQL!! WINDOWS!! LINUX!!), and the dipsh*t author wants to poke holes in his choice of tools. you had an idea the article was going to go that way when the first two paragraphs were about how great he was.
ferguson lost the handle on his overall design, or his algorithm sucked to begin with, or he never understood the problem, or maybe he's just a crappy programmer.
but that the dumbest damn thing I've read in quite some time.
To: grundle
Bet it wasn’t a mistake...
31
posted on
05/20/2020 10:46:37 AM PDT
by
mewzilla
(Break out the mustard seeds.)
To: ConservativeMind
I am supremely confident that ferguson would have f*cked it up even worse in c++
To: grundle
But if it saved even one life, wasn’t it worth it?
Just think of the lives saved if we would just lower all highway speed limits to 45mph, and all city limits to 15mph.
33
posted on
05/20/2020 10:49:01 AM PDT
by
SaxxonWoods
(Just sit in your house until the food stops coming and then starve. You'll be safe.)
To: grundle
Boy this guy is a whinger !
“Imperials model appears to be based on a programming language called Fortran...”
There is nothing wrong with Fortran as an engineering language.
Geez !
34
posted on
05/20/2020 10:50:28 AM PDT
by
Pikachu_Dad
("the media are selling you a line of soap)
To: NELSON111
I spend an entire career making forecasts and briefing 3 & 4-star generals and presidents on what computer models said...based on their science and math.The advantage there is you KNOW within a
short amount of time whether or not you were right in your forecasting.
If you're wrong...well, you know...
The Weather Forecast That Saved D-Day
35
posted on
05/20/2020 10:50:38 AM PDT
by
philman_36
(Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty and supped with infamy. Benjamin Franklin)
To: CaptainK
I suspect an agenda was at play. The bigger modeling numbers, the more fear, the longer lockdowns. Just shut down long enough to get the dems to November.
To: philman_36
Well - that's true MOST of the time - except when I had to make long-range hurricane forecasts to the 4-star and to DHS for planning purposes - or drought forecasts for the fire season.
We did a lot of planning for long-range to help with purchases and exercise planning. That used a lot of the long-range models - and those would sometimes be good - and sometimes crap - and it depended on stuff like MJO - AMO - all sorts of science and seasonalities.
37
posted on
05/20/2020 10:55:44 AM PDT
by
NELSON111
(Congress: The Ralph Wolf and Sam Sheepdog show. Theater for sheep. My politics determines my "hero")
To: NELSON111
They are only as good as the data you feed into them
For example, we were feeding data in from China and South Korea, the data from China was wrong, so our models were off.
All models are best guesses, because that is what a model is.
Could you build a model, based on the past 10 years of lottery number drawings predict next week winning lottery numbers?
If you could, you and all your scientific pals would be crazy rich right now.
To: grundle
Imperials model appears to be based on a programming language called Fortran My career was built on FORTRAN (and Assembly)
39
posted on
05/20/2020 10:59:54 AM PDT
by
11th_VA
(May you live in interesting times - Ancient Chinese Proverb)
To: NELSON111
I'm willing to bet that you would admit that your type of modeling is vastly different from that described in the article and uses far more predictive norms.
Am I correct?
40
posted on
05/20/2020 11:00:52 AM PDT
by
philman_36
(Pride breakfasted with plenty, dined with poverty and supped with infamy. Benjamin Franklin)
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