They are only as good as the data you feed into them
For example, we were feeding data in from China and South Korea, the data from China was wrong, so our models were off.
All models are best guesses, because that is what a model is.
Could you build a model, based on the past 10 years of lottery number drawings predict next week winning lottery numbers?
If you could, you and all your scientific pals would be crazy rich right now.
This is true - but to say there is no science is stupid. That was my point. We are not talking about random prediction - and you know it. If you don't - then you do not know enough about this conversation to actually be commenting. Go learn some science - get educated - then come back and talk about what you learned.