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Study Finds 42% Of Pandemic Layoffs Will Become Permanent Job Losses
Washington Examiner ^ | 05/11/20 | Mica Soellner

Posted on 05/12/2020 2:00:06 AM PDT by Enlightened1

Many of the coronavirus pandemic layoffs will become permanent job losses, according to a new study with alarming implications for the future of the economy.

Forty-two percent of workers experiencing recent layoffs will suffer permanent job losses, according to a paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The finding is especially grim news because officials are hoping that most of the workers sent home during the pandemic will return quickly to their old jobs. The vast majority of the massive layoffs in response to the pandemic have been on a temporary basis: In April, 18 million of the 20.6 million people who lost work said that their job losses were "temporary," according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"If the pandemic and partial economic shutdown linger for many months, or if pandemics with serious health consequences and high mortality rates become a recurring phenomenon, there will be profound, long-term consequences for the reallocation of jobs, workers and capital across firms and locations," the study said.

The study cited a number of policy actions that may be harmful to the recovery process. It said efforts to preserve the jobs and employment relationships available before the virus outbreak could result in huge costs to taxpayers and the misallocation of resources. On the other hand, there could be benefits of policy reforms that expedite a speedy reallocation of jobs, workers, and capital to new, productive uses during the pandemic.

"If we are correct that many of the lost jobs are gone for good, there are important implications for policy," the study said.

Last week, President Trump vowed that the job losses will be temporary, promising a "phenomenal year" in 2021 following a hopeful recovery from the public health crisis.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 42; covid19; economy; employment; layoffs; pandemic; permanent
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We will have a better idea for sure 6 to 9 months from now.
1 posted on 05/12/2020 2:00:06 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: Enlightened1

Hopefully, the economy will rebound within a couple years. This has been brutal.


2 posted on 05/12/2020 2:06:29 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Prayers up for Rush Limbaugh...)
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To: Enlightened1

America’s globalist enemies on the left are working to make this true, to guarantee their election victory in November. If we can reopen states sooner, those jobs will come back, and that frightens Pelosi, Soros, and the rest of the hateful socialists who want power over us.


3 posted on 05/12/2020 2:08:30 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
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To: Enlightened1

And this was always the goal of the criminal democrats. Now they can make these desperate people dependent on government and get them to permanently vote for democrats.

JoMa


4 posted on 05/12/2020 2:15:56 AM PDT by joma89 (Buy weapons and ammo, folks.)
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To: Pollster1

L8r 3


5 posted on 05/12/2020 2:18:27 AM PDT by preacher ( Journalism no longer reports news, they use news to shape our society.)
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To: ScottinVA

I think the economy will rebound more quickly. There is a lot of pent up demand out there.


6 posted on 05/12/2020 2:20:04 AM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: Enlightened1; JonPreston
Study Finds 42% Of Pandemic Layoffs Will Become Permanent Job Losses

"What a revolting development this is."

Now, if only more Governors like PA's Tom Wolf continue their idiocy we can get that number up to around 50%.

7 posted on 05/12/2020 2:24:10 AM PDT by a little elbow grease ( ....... F.Lee Levin)
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To: Enlightened1

The stock market only dropped 500 points. Think about that.


8 posted on 05/12/2020 2:24:48 AM PDT by Dogbert41 (Jerusalem is the city of the Great King!!!)
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To: Enlightened1

This 42% figure is essentially just someone’s wild guess, so I’ll take it with a grain of salt. What I’m hearing through friends and acquaintances, though, is that a fair number of restaurants and retailers that were having troubles before covid-19 will not reopen. Buffett’s old line that when the tide goes out you see who’s been swimming naked is apt to some extent. If you were teetering on the edge of failure in during a *good* economy, and then you get involuntarily shut down for 2+ months, well, you’re pretty much down for the count.


9 posted on 05/12/2020 2:31:39 AM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: a little elbow grease
Did the jobs suddenly disappear forever or are they just not being filled for the moment?

Jobs wont have to be 'created'. They already exist. We just need the government to get their boot off our neck so we can get back to 'em.

This derp article is just more derp fear mongering intended to discourage the stock market, tank the economy, and bring down Trump.

NEVER listen to derps. They lie.


10 posted on 05/12/2020 2:33:43 AM PDT by bagster ("Even bad men love their mamas".)
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To: Enlightened1

There is no precedent for the current economic conditions, so anyone trying to predict the future is just taking a wild-ass guess.


11 posted on 05/12/2020 2:41:31 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The Democratic Party is communism)
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To: Enlightened1
People will never get their hair cut, watch a football game, or go out to a restaurant again?

I doubt it.

12 posted on 05/12/2020 2:54:30 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("The natives are growing restless")
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To: Enlightened1
In June 1948, German industrial production was about half of its level in 1936. By the end of 1948, it was close to 80%.

The US hasn't been carpet bombed, and much of our 18 to 35 year old workforce isn't scattered dead all over Europe.

It shouldn't take the US nearly that long to recover from the ChiCom virus.

13 posted on 05/12/2020 3:03:29 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("The natives are growing restless")
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To: Enlightened1

Might be true but not the best characterization.

1. Some businesses might not return. Many go bust each year anyway.

2. Some jobs within returning businesses might not return. Businesses that do return might downsize or otherwise restructure.

3. Not part of the headline, but certainly part of the story is that new businesses will form.

So the net result will never be 42 percent job losses.


14 posted on 05/12/2020 3:09:26 AM PDT by jimfree (My19 y/o granddaughter continues to have more quality exec experience than an 8 year Obama.)
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To: Enlightened1

I don’t believe that.

We started a shutdown quite early, but it was VERY aggressive. Everything was shutdown, except grocery stores and small shops. Everything else was closed.

Even informal shops.

Now we are opening up again, and things are sort of going nuts. I think once things start improving, you will be surprized.


15 posted on 05/12/2020 3:12:28 AM PDT by cba123 ( Toi la nguoi My. Toi bay gio o Viet Nam.)
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To: Enlightened1
Forty-two percent of workers experiencing recent layoffs will suffer permanent job losses, according to a paper circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

F'en impossible.

First, it is impossible to predict the future, just look at the 2,200,000 USA Deaths by Chi-Com Virus-19.

Second, these experts cannot give an accurate estimate as to the mix of people that are out of work.

Nothing about this "study by the experts" has even a faint twinge of accuracy.

16 posted on 05/12/2020 3:35:12 AM PDT by USS Alaska (NUKE THE MOOSELIMB, TERRORISTS, NOW!)
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To: Enlightened1
Amp up the deregulation plus slash spending and taxes. You will get jobs popping up like mushrooms and as a side benefit leftist anguish and tears!
17 posted on 05/12/2020 3:35:48 AM PDT by Nateman (If the left is not screaming, you are doing it wrong.)
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To: irishjuggler

“This 42% figure is essentially just someone’s wild guess,=”

Too precise not to raise suspicions...On the other hand, it could have said 41.87876%


18 posted on 05/12/2020 3:43:42 AM PDT by RonnG (')
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To: Enlightened1

Total crap study. Trying to damage the realization that unlike the depression, almost every one has a job to go back to. And there will quickly be unfilled openings again.


19 posted on 05/12/2020 3:43:49 AM PDT by Revolutionary ("Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!")
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To: Revolutionary

My company hired 2 new people last week and working on hiring 2 more asap.


20 posted on 05/12/2020 3:48:35 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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