Posted on 05/11/2020 10:42:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Washington — One of the leading models for measuring the impact of the coronavirus is now projecting a total of 137,184 cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. through the beginning of August, an increase of roughly 2,700 deaths from its previous forecast May 4.
Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, predicted the number of cases to particularly increase in areas where people become more mobile.
"What's driving the change is, simply put, the rise in mobility, and that's the key driver," Murray said on "Face the Nation" on Sunday. "We're seeing in some states, you know, a 20-percentage-point increase in just 10 days in mobility. And that will translate into more human contact, more transmission."
Murray said states which have "big increases in mobility" may see a significant uptick in cases in the coming weeks. The top five states with increased mobility are Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Georgia, Murray said.
"We're seeing just explosive increases in mobility in a number of states that we expect will translate into more cases and deaths in 10 days from now," Murray said.
Murray said there was a decrease in projected cases coming from New York, New Jersey and Michigan, which have been epicenters of the pandemic, but that there was an increase in states like Illinois, Arizona, Florida and California.
"We really are going to have to wait and see," Murray said.
Several states are preparing to partially or fully reopen their economies, which could lead to greater travel between states. Murray advised against significant travel, and urged Americans to try to "minimize exposure" to other people.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Yeah...after they have put 100 million out of work, totally destroyed the economy and sent suicides up by 1000%.
Given how it is with the other coronaviruses where we get tens of millions of infections every year, I get the impression that it won’t go away.
In other words Bew York City continues to spread its infection.
Just looking at the predictions made in my lifetime: “climate change”, peak oil, global famine, nuclear catastrophe, yadda yadda...
When have the leftist predictions ever been close to correct?
Does the guy have an over under for the superbowl?
“The one number they can’t BS are hospitalizations. “
Yes. Deaths are what matter. Hospitalization is also a good marker. Hospitalization data can be harder to get, though.
Cases mean little to nothing.
If we die of anything it will be from all the BS being crammed down our throats.
We will easily get to 137 000 by August.
More like paranoid self-appointed enforcers.
I should have put the sarcasm note in there but I thought “Comrade” would give it away.
Sorry to have upset you.
Their models error on the high side.
They appear to have an agenda.
Our betters have decided we are non-essential... to them.
The fact that we are essential to ourselves is not their problem.
On the prediction of +2700 the upper range and lower ranges were decreased. This is at best statistical noise on the model.
Wait it was 2.2 million deaths, then 1 million deaths. Now it’s 100,000...…….. who is making these estimates? Are they using a Magic 8-Ball?
60-70% in nursing homes?
I am well versed with Florida. I search the Florida DOH everyday and it breaks things down to the county level. Most counties (all but one today) show a positive test rate of well under 5%. The governors of Verizon’s states said reopening should occur when under 10% consistently. I believe the federal government said this as well
As for hospitalizations. Dropping like a boulder. Most hospitals have absolutely no one in them. Utilizing 25% of beds. Elective surgery is back full tilt but today I had zero patients in one of my IcUs. That’s not zero CoVId. That’s zero patients as in the ICU is closed and nurses and respiratory therapists sent on and placed on call
In my opinion there is zero reason why we shouldn’t be fully open in my region based on the numbers. No restriction. Normal.
80,000 already.
100,000 by end of May- first week of June.
Every one is not going to die.
But a lot of Americans are going to die from this.
It will be right just like SPI in project management. Biggest piece of crap metric I have to deal with.
“We will easily get to 137 000 by August.”
500 a day 45000 in three months.
Currently at 81141 + 45000 = 126141 deaths by end of Aug.
The 500 is just a wild guess average number. Yesterday was 750.
I will have to agree it possible to get to 137000 by the end of Aug. Not sure if they mean Aug 1.
I do not see US wide lock downs.
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