Posted on 04/30/2020 7:58:42 AM PDT by Kaslin
One of the less helpful aspects of our current quandary is the shrill argument between two closed-minded camps. One condemns those who wish to open up the economy as science-defying ghouls who care nothing for human life. The other depicts the stay-at-homes as economic saboteurs willing to destroy the national economy in the name of unobtainable safety.
Neither reckons with the indispensable bridge -- the testing problem. Whatever mayors, governors, or presidents might say, we cannot restart the economy as long as people are too frightened to resume working, shopping, and socializing. An NPR/Marist poll found that 65 percent of Americans believe that it would be a "bad idea" to have people return to work until further testing is available, and 80 percent say the same about eating in restaurants. Even larger majorities oppose opening schools or sporting events.
On the other hand, it's simply untenable to keep huge sectors of the economy in what Will Wilkinson of the Niskanen Center calls "soft house arrest" indefinitely, or to open up only to be forced to shut down again in the face of new illness spikes. We are stuck in limbo. We've succeeded in flattening the curve but haven't conceived a way to avoid thousands of more deaths without causing an economic catastrophe.
Fortunately, the Safra Center for Ethics at Harvard has gathered experts from across the political spectrum and prepared a very compelling roadmap for escaping from this trap. It requires shifting focus from quarantining the entire population (with its attendant economic pain) to testing on a massive scale, contact tracing and supported isolation (TTSI). With the proper level of TTSI, we could begin safely to reopen the economy, sector by sector, starting with the most essential.
We are currently testing about 150,000 people a day. That number needs to ramp up fast to two million a day and then quickly to five million per day, reaching 20 million by August. To accomplish this, Safra calls for a Pandemic Testing Board modeled on World War II's War Production Board to coordinate the innovation, supply chains and regulatory changes necessary to facilitate this. Testing is always a critical part of disease control, but never more than in this case, when so many carriers are asymptomatic.
Once infected people are identified, they need to be supported in isolation -- meaning that they should be able to expect sick pay, the guarantee of a job when they return and perhaps temporary housing (hotels may be useful for those who need it). Their contacts must also be informed and urged to self-isolate for the two-week incubation period. Johns Hopkins University has estimated that we will need to hire and train at least 100,000 new personnel. This will involve the use of apps and other technologies that pose privacy concerns, but experience with other epidemics like HIV has shown that it can be done sensitively. After a negative test, people can safely return to work.
Phase One would focus on essential workers, the 40 percent of the workforce who are not able to self-quarantine and alarming numbers of whom are falling ill. Doctors and nurses are at high risk. Seventeen percent of the New York City police force is infected, and the outbreak at meat processing plants has prompted the chairman of Tyson Foods to warn that the "food supply chain is breaking."
Phase Two would permit the reopening of many businesses while maintaining social distancing for vulnerable populations. Phase Three would see about 80 percent of the economy back on track, and Phase Four would see a new normal in which the economy returned to pre-pandemic levels but with testing, careful monitoring and improved decontamination to suppress further outbreaks.
If a vaccine comes along, so much the better. But this roadmap would permit us to cope with a world that contains COVID-19 -- or some future pathogen -- without letting it wreak devastation on the economy or our health.
How much would it cost? Between $50 billion and $300 billion over two years. But compared to what? The current lockdown regime is the costliest emergency of our lifetimes. The price we are paying now, including eye-popping outlays of up to $350 billion a month from the federal government (spiking our national debt to levels unseen since World War II), lost education for children, bankruptcies, diminishing mental health, overwhelmed soup kitchens, spikes in domestic violence and more, is incalculable. This roadmap -- or something like it -- offers a lifeline.
If you test negative you could get the disease the next minute. The only way out of this is just to return to normal. Cold Turkey. End the lockdown. We should never have gone down this path in the first place.
No, testing is not the way out; it’s a way of further control and regimentation of the population.
Herd immunity is the way out; either everyone gets it, or else there are vaccine(s) made available.
But there should be no further “tracking” of people who are “suspect”, or “safe”, nor monitoring of everyone’s movements.
Grown adults, who are most at risk, are capable of handling their own health needs.
Yeah, simple. Get the hell out of our way, all of you Stalinist wannabes. And that goes for Soros goon Fauci especially.
Screw Never Trumper Mona Charen. She be dead to me.
Yes. Article is pure sophistry.
Mona Charen has been putting out crap like this for years unfortunately.
no.
slaves are forced to wear masks historically.
the healthy are NOT forced to be imprisoned,
while the ill are quarantined historically.
criminals are NOT released historically.
NO
Indict Fauxi and everyone involved in funding
this Crime against Humanity.
“Whatever mayors, governors, or presidents might say, we cannot restart the economy as long as people are too frightened to resume working, shopping, and socializing.”
Nonsense. Give employers the ability to fire the shiftless who won’t go back to work, give landlords the ability to evict those who won’t pay rent, and give schools the ability to fail students who don’t show up, people will come out of their holes.
Testing is just another way to string people along: “We can only get out of this if there is testing...gosh, testing isn’t working, we’ll need to continue this unconstitutional power grab.”
Testing for antibodies should be helpful. If you have antibodies, you’re good to go; as you were.
Testing for positive or negative accomplishes very little. Are we going to test every day?
I believe the goal all along has been the destruction of our economy. Why else would travel have been openly bias towards export of the virus?
The Communist Chinese were, and are up against a brick wall in the form of our President. They believed an all out assault on our economy to be the only recourse they had to continue their plans to dominate the World. Getting us to vote out PDJT is their goal. They blew it so far.
The testing is the trap. It’s the perfect obstruction tool for the rats. There will never be enough, it will never be finished and the more you do the more cases you find and keep the curve from dropping. Yes it does make the mortality drop but that is easily buried onto page 3.
If you test negative you could get the disease the next minute.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
100% correct, testing gains us nothing.
It’s a heck of a make work program. To test 20 million a day you’re probably talking employing 2 or 3 million people. Won’t be meaningful though. Even at 20 million a day you’re talking over 2 weeks to test the whole country, so by the time you reach the end the first wave of tests are meaningless.
The way out of this is to acknowledge colds do colds are gonna do. People are gonna die. It’s gonna be sad.
Fear not, saith the Lord
Exactly right. These governors are monsters.
Note that mostly Democrat governors are denying access to HCQ.
Coincidence?
I think not. Condsider the phony China "studies" saying HCQ is worthless, and couple that with the zealous diligence of the Democrat governors in denying access to HCQ treatments.
A suspicious person might say that the DNC, its Media and Xi's government are coordinating in this effort.
My thought is to have antigen testing in zip codes near the hot spots.
Massive scale at first glance - but doable. Do the zip code around the rest home in WA where things kicked off in a big way and two or three more in manageable suburbs around the country.
Every WalMart and Big Box store in the zip code would have multiple test stations and people to direct traffic into testing lanes. You have ID with that zip code you get tested. Don’t drive? Have a walk up station for those who get off a buss.
Logistics would require proper planning so Federalize the Guard in those states. Only need medical people at the stations themselves. Regular troops can control and direct traffic.
Just my opinion of course.
And if someone in NYC gets tested and learns that they are infected, how do they get home?
(Who gets the risk of infection: The Uber driver? The family member or neighbor who drives into town to pick them up? The person in the next seat on the bus? The crowd in the subway car?)
What the hell is the purpose of testing 20 million people every day -- when the test results are out of date the minute after the subject is tested?
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