Posted on 04/28/2020 4:13:42 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
A coronavirus pandemic model has increased the predicted US death toll from the disease to 74,000 – up 14,000 from the previous estimate, according to a report.
“Our forecast now is for 74,000 deaths. That’s our best estimate. The range is pretty wide because there’s a lot of unknown factors there, but our best estimate is going up, and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states,” Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Help Metrics and Evaluation, told CNN.
“We’re also seeing signs in the mobility data that people are getting more active, and that’s also feeding into our assessment,” he added.
The model had previously predicted 60,000 deaths from the bug.
Murray said the new data would affect his institute’s recommendations on when social distancing measures could be eased on a state-by-state basis, adding that they would move past the mid-May to early June dates they had previously suggested.
He said he believes states are opening too soon.
“If you’re focused on trying to protect people’s health, then the answer is absolutely. It’s a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work,” Murray told CNN.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Hospitals around me are basically empty. Robberies have gone up and globull warming is freezing my garden. It’s a Bernie paradise.
Saw the plans to open back up, then they increased the numbers. Think University of Washington, think Bill Gates, think WHO.
On April 18 I made an estimate of 75,000 deaths by June 1.
We will see how these estimates pan out.
“A lot of unknown factors..”, huh?
Like an effective treatment soon? Or conclusive test results on existing medicine that ward off the virus. None of this was included in your model.
Hey, don’t forget the upside of totalitarian governors revealing themselves!
The death stats include dying while positive and dying while presumed positive.
The death stats are crap.
That’s 2/10000th of one percent that you could randomly get it. Unless you were making out with a chick from Wuhan.
I wonder if I should trust these models more?
Just read 54,000 USA deaths to date which includes 6,000 “maybe”.
And we should believe this why?
To my mind, they’re all bloody maybe.
Here’s a question I’ve yet to see answered: Was the guidance given by the CDC on how to count the 2009 Swine Flu dead different from the guidance given for WuFlu? If so, why?
Inquiring minds want to know.
“74000”
I.e. 0.1% fatality rate, assuming a 20% infection rate. Or 1% fatality rate, assuming a 2% infection rate. Fancy model.
Depend on whether they round their number up. The one on the right does for sure.
All this death, all this suffering, not to mention the financial cost all so Trump can be removed from office and Nancy Pelosi in between coke lines can be feted at a cocktail party.
I was just reading about the 2017-18 regular flu season that had so many record deaths. The CDC that year adopted some new way of estimating the deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm
“In 2017, CDC began using new methodology to classify seasonal severity and applied the methodology to the 2003-2004 through 2016-2017 seasons. The 2017-18 season was the first season to be classified as a high severity across all age groups.”
But mortality isn’t mentioned...
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