Posted on 04/22/2020 10:27:30 AM PDT by Kaslin
If I were a conspiracy theorist I would assume...
The impeachment was rushed because they knew it would fail, and this is a media created doomsday scenario. Just like the Puerto Rican Hurrican killed either 68 or 3400...numbers are hidden by saying the word caused (68) or related (3400). Note that a test is no longer even needed to call a Corona death related. Suddenly apples can be directly compared with oranges.
Democratic leadership (with money and support from the CCP) saw this as an opportunity to make the US less competitive than China, and Trump would fold. The China trade deal would fail, and the election would go to someone more “sympathetic” to the CCP.
Biden would win the election and corrupt democratic business would be able to continue as usual, without that pesky outsider...Trump.
Failure...not that important, Trump is spending money at a rate that even Nancy Pelosi never dreamed of, so the corruption is still so VAST it is unimaginable.
Sigh.
DK
Is that a news article or the opinion of Jacob Sullum? Everybody has opinions
“tested a representative sample of 863 adults for antibodies to the virus in early April”
- That is very small sample considering the population size of Los Angeles County.
“Since the number of infections in Los Angeles County is much higher than the official numbers indicate, Ferrer told reporters, the risk of transmission is higher than expected, which reinforces the case for aggressive control measures, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders. At the same time, she said, the fact that 95% or so of the county’s adult population remains uninfected shows those measures are working.”
- Here she states the aggressive control measures (aka lock down) is working, 95% of the population remains uninfected.
“”These results indicate that many persons may have been unknowingly infected and at risk of transmitting the virus to others,” Ferrer said.”
- Yes 5% is 502000 of 10.04 Million people in LA county is large. 5% is 5 people out of 100 people. 5 does not appear that large in this context.
” Ferrer said, the study suggests that 0.1% to 0.2% of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu.”
- Yes it is 0.1 to 0.2% deadlier then the flu. We are running about those numbers now, maybe a little higher with Lockdowns. I wonder what it would be like without lockdown.
What if New York City or LA did not lock down, what would the numbers be?
I have several otherwise conservative friends and family members scared obamaless and post #19-ing.
They don’t show signs of abandoning Trump, but are pretty mad at the “horrible things the Chinese eat”, are deathly worried about going outside, and really worried for the children.
Many on FR have been saying that all along!
I don’t think it is the old people pushing this, but the Democrats who want to maintain total power.
“Here, I’ve been arrested 3 times, skinny dipped once, and hate asparagus. How about you?”
—
I barbecued in my backyard. Probably illegal, as it is not directly listed under allowed outside activities.
If the coronavirus infected 40 times the number of reported cases in California, then 3.7 / 40 = a 0.0925 CFR, or about the same mortality rate as the flu there, now. But numbers of those dying from corona in California are rising. So is a deadlier strain now spreading in California as well?
More questions than answers...
We may have a lot more herd immunity than the “experts” think.
They - the experts - take only one-half of the full meaning of the idea that the Wuhan Virus is more contagious, when they divorce that idea from the fact that for 80% or so of the population that infection passes with mild symptoms, and rendering those recovered-on-their-own mild symptom cases no longer a threat to further contagion.
Not even close, I'm afraid...not until 60+% of any given population have had it, and gotten over it...
“Not even close, I’m afraid...not until 60+% of any given population have had it, and gotten over it... “
Your comment does not take in how little herd immunity the OFFICIAL experts think exists now. Which, as I said, is, I believe, far less than actually exists. Mine is not an estimate of what % that is, only that I think the actual % is greater than what the experts think it is.
You don’t lock down the strongest so the weakest won’t die.
Because of modern medicine and technology, we can keep people alive on life support (caregiving) for as long as something doesn’t challenge them — but viruses don’t respect that and will test them. Invariably, those people are already isolated (socially distanced), but making everybody live that way, is not going to make the population at large any healthier. But of course, it creates everybody as patients for life — which is the old medical business model — rather than the new of actually curing people.
Of course, then the doctors can’t drive around in BMWs and matriculate at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation waiting for more funding to discredit cures.
According to the data source I linked, the total number of cases in California is about 36,000 x 40 = 1,440,000 who may have had it. That’s a long way from herd immunity of 60% of 40,000,000 people (the pop. of California). All dependent upon LA’s estimate being accurate of course.
“According to the data source I linked, the total number of cases in California is about 36,000 x 40 = 1,440,000 who may have had it. That’s a long way from herd immunity of 60% of 40,000,000 people (the pop. of California). All dependent upon LA’s estimate being accurate of course.”
You miss the point. That is still much further along than the experts think.
And if my estimation is correct, based on tons of anecdotal evidence, that 36,000 number is way lower than actual, which will make the “40 times” number even larger than 1.4 mil.
New York government incompetence is still killing New Yawkers. Oh well, get what you vote for.
Time will tell.
That’s great that a professor of Public Policy - not a physician or epidemiologist - did a study of 800 people, and wrote a press release about it. They are using the same test used in the Santa Clara county Ioannidis study which has a .5% false positive rate according to the manufacturer. The study estimates that the infection rate is 4.1%, but they do not state the number of people who tested positive, the number of people who had symptoms, or the method of selection of the people tested. Their study has not been peer-reviewed, and the have no plan to submit the results to a scientific journal. It is a piece of garbage.
The Santa Clara study is flawed for several reasons.
1. The participants self-selected, and someone who has symptoms or has been in close contact with an infected individual is more likely to want a Covid test.
2. The tests have a false positive rate supposedly 2/371 or .5% - this data is from the manufacturer of the test
3. This sample was 4,000 people, but there are facts relating to 243,000 people in a city of 9 million which prove that Ioannidis (the study author) is wrong.
NYC has 14,427 Covid deaths already which is .16% of the population of 9,000,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assuming every single person in NYC is infected.
243,047 people have been tested and 132,467 tested positive,
Only people with symptoms are being tested in NYC and only 54% of those with symptoms are positive. The rate of infection for those without symptoms is obviously lower than the rate of infection in those with symptoms of the disease.
If 54% of the entire city is infected (implausibly high) then the infection fatality rate is .30% (.16%/.54)
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04202020-1.pdf
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator. It is estimated (see link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-many-people-already-have-covid-19/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/21/revealing-chinese-virus-excess-death-graphs-coronavirus/
http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328
They keep kicking the can telling us that the rising peak we were assured was coming 3 weeks ago will almost certainly be here in the next month or two.
Y2.02K virus
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