Important Coronavirus Model Lowers Projected Deaths In One State By More Than 70 Percent

Townhall ^ | 04/19/2020 | Bronson Stocking

[BillyCuccio]

I think your right and the fact that it was allowed to spread more slowly as a result resulted in less panic and less death. Our excellent healthcare in this country will not be over run now and as more evidence emerges we are going to see that a large percentage of the population already had it but were not compelled by fear to rush into hospitals in the winter which would have resulted in the death that occurred elsewhere.

[BillyCuccio]

Any time they do random testing they find a third of the people already have the antibodies . This was the biggest crock of bs ever . Many here realized it was just a continuation of the Russian hoax . Anything and everything to take away the 2016 vote and influence 2020.

[livius]

All of the effective ones - the HCQ and apparently remsvidir - act only by controlling the symptoms, which are actually the things that reduce the immune system, permit bacterial infections (of the lungs, for example) and also encourage the “cytokines storm” as the body tries to fight off the other infections.

The reason remsvidir has become the media’s go-to drug is that it was not the one first found to be effective and thus mentioned by Trump.

It’s really stunning, when you think of it, that the Dems and their media have even managed to politicize drugs that have verifiably saved lives, permitting people’s own immune systems to fight back. They have politicized everything but this really takes it over the top.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

If only President Trump had acted a couple of days sooner, we would have saved MILLIONS of lives.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

Victor Davis Hanson wrote a good article a week ago about why it pays to be a Pessimist with predictions. They always win, can say "Whew, I'm so glad it's so much less worse than I predicted," and can be looked at as heroes. The Optimist, on the other hand, is often wrong and will take the blame if things go wrong - "We listened to you and didn't prepare."

See...

The Eeyore Syndrome
by Victor Davis Hanson, April 7, 2020

The outlook of the pessimist (“if you think it’s bad now, just wait”) always enjoys advantages over both the realist (“so what, life goes on”) and the optimist (“oh, come on, it can’t be that bad”).

When the pessimist frequently errs in his gloomy prognostications, he can plead that they were intended to be didactic, if not therapeutic. Only by offering scarifying models can the glum epidemiologist and statesman sufficiently terrify the public and thereby allow policymakers to enact the necessary draconian shelter-in-place protocols. That strategy could apply to the recent near celebrity Neil Morris Ferguson, OBE FMedSci, the British epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology at the Imperial College in London, whose “2 million” possible deaths terrified America into lockdown, just as his modeled “500,000” fatalities in Britain did the same in his own homeland.

If the Eeyores are proven right, then, they are seen as not only prescient but sanctified — the voices in the wilderness who spoke the inconvenient truths that saved lives.

The sunnier prognosticators suffer a lose-lose dilemma rather than the pessimist’s win-win chances. If one doubts these original nightmarish Imperial College worst-case predications of 2 million-plus deaths in the United States, and is proven correct, it matters little. The pessimist argues that it was only his bleak forecasts that changed behaviors and that, without such changes, the optimist’s obviously faulty data and poor reasoning would have led policymakers over a cliff.

FReepers are smart and see through this ploy. I doubt that average Joe Six-Pack or Democrat sees why it pays to be a pessimist and falls for it every time.

[logi_cal869]

Rather than looking the problem in the eyes, you’re acting cliche’:

If you’re not the lead dog, the view never changes.

Instead of looking at the back end of the dog in front of you, look at the core of the problem, realizing that lies & propaganda are driving fear & panic to compel compliance with government overreach.

It’s not about the drug treatments or vaccines, it’s about the lies which frame the narratives of “stay at home” & “flatten the curve”.

EVERYONE will get this virus; that’s a GOOD thing, as it turns out (immunity). Once it got out of China, the deaths that occur will happen regardless any human intervention, including travel bans, including quarantine of healthy people. People WILL die, but not as a result of human action or inaction, and certainly NOT prevented by quarantining en masse when the virus will still be there when the ‘quarantine’ ends...sparking another hysterical call for “stay-at home”.

It’s pathological: Arguing for a continued shutdown on the basis of falsehoods, innuendo & emotional fear is the very definition of Covidiot.

Wake up.

[Waverunner]

As a native Floridians, I’ll take our Governors results to Cuomo and DeBlasios results any day. As a retired manufacturing engineer and nurse, I’d like to give my to maxims for success.
1. Develop a keen grasp of the obvious.
2. When your preconceived notions disagree with reality, buy into reality.

On #2 I watched people spend great deals of time trying to figure out why things don’t work the way that they think it should, instead of analyzing what caused the result. I try to point them to #1.

[lightman]

“That’s a Murray” ping.

[lightman]

+1

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Here's mine:

Now let's start gradually opening our country back up between April 30 and Labor Day. YMMV, depending on which state you're in.

Elitist snobs in NY and CA can stay in their homes until Christmas, for all I care.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

I'm eagerly awaiting the latest pronouncements from Fauci and Birx:

Note: I'm not a flu bro. As for heart attacks, the Chinese Frankenvirus does attack the heart in some cases. In the seething bowels of NYC, the rate of known heart attack cases has quadrupled over this time last year, which seems to prove that fact.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Bring the boys back to work!
Bring the boys back to work!
—More Pink Floyd

[Starboard]

Are you on drugs??? Your lecturing and arrogant post was flat out weird as was your desperate attempts to sling ad hominen attacks. Feeling a deep seated need to act superior?

You get an honorable mention for posting one of the stranges comments I’ve ever seen on FR and I’ve been here a long time.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

It’s a good thing that the death rate from the virus will undoubtedly be much, much lower than some people predict. At the same time, this thing spreads like wildfire so that hot spots can quickly overwhelm hospitals with serious cases that, for God only knows what reason, last and last in those hospitals until they either regain enough health to be discharged or die on a vent.

So, I do agree with re-opening the economy, at least in most parts of the country, but to do it gradually, to do our best to avoid further hot spots (like my own town, due to one of those nursing home disasters) and slammed hospitals. YMMV, depending on where you live.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Also, this Frankenvirus can cause kidney failure in more serious cases, due to an abundance of ACE2 receptors (Frankenvirus food) in kidney cells. While the seemingly imminent shortages of vents seem to have been avoided for now, we apparently have seemingly imminent shortages in dialysis machines. Hopefully, that will turn out the same as the vents — that is we will have a decent supply after all.

[logi_cal869]

I have a sound working theory about that: The virus incubates in & colonizes the lungs (my personal experience adds significant weight to that statement). Once it has a toe-hold, some patients are flooded with so much virus that their systems are overwhelmed, unlike a gradual infection. Suddenly the virus is winning and it takes over susceptible organs. In this case, the kidneys are vulnerable.

In the absence of any treatment whatsoever to eradicate the virus, patient loses in many cases, sometimes just an organ, others much more.

I'm convinced that someone out there should be treating their patients' lungs, and there's only one way to do that.

It worked for me & my wife and I was going downhill fast until then. But I've done all the outreach I'm gonna do.

"Deaf ears" doesn't do the lack of response justice. Between that and government keen to take advantage of this "crisis", I'm mad as hell and, I concede, I'm a bit sensitive to some rather ignorant comments (not yours).

ps...my infection did, indeed, affect my kidney function. Not to any ill effect that I can detect, but definitely impacted my urinary output. I plan on having a few tests whenever this 'ends' but I'm rather fortunate at my age to have had such a mild case and merely 72-hour illness. I'm confident that I'm immune, but unlike critics of that statement, what the hell am I gonna do about it anyway?

Brick myself in the house? Don't think so. Michigan Conservatives have it right, in spite of a hysterical FB post by an alleged Michigan nurse from a few days ago.

You can spy it here (the reposts are copy/paste of her post only; I dug and this is the original post):

"I am posting, for once, about something other than my dog."

Incidentally, I've been doing research about why it is that there are so few hospital beds in the U.S.

Turns out that it's due to a Ford-era piece of legislation, P.L. 93-641, The National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974, and governs the use of Certificates of Need which, ironically, have dramatically-reduced the number of hospital beds & hospitals in most states (it's not just Cuomo, it turns out), including needed equipment (such as MRIs, dialysis machines and, most-pertinently, ventilating machines). I provided the law name/number for others to do their own learned research, because given what I know now, there's a goddamn good reason that our 'leaders' were so concerned with overwhelming the hospital system.

"Made our own bed" so-to-speak...

[mad_as_he$$]

bkmk

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

Damn! I know Florida has a “certificate-of-need” law for certain medical clinics, but they got rid of it a year or two ago.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

I'm fine with all the Michiganders and Marylanders who stayed in their cars and protested against governors Karen Whitmer by driving round and round the state capitols. What bothers me is all the idiots who came in on foot and proceeded not to follow the social distancing norms* all over the country during this Black Swan singularity.

So I'm simply not going to attend these things until people get their shit together and minimize the risk of further spikes and hot spots, which would give the Governor Karens of the world the perfect excuse to keep us down and miserable.

Re-open graudally starting April 30. Until then, stay safe, stay healthy, stay home.

*Note: I'm not impugning families and small groups of friends who entered the streets or the statehouse lawns. If they want to hang together and understand the risks, that's fine. I'm talking about the at-least-partially unmasked throngs I've seen on TV completely ignoring customs that could minimize any spread.

[tbw2]

The coronavirus “crisis” is a perfect example of bad policies based on bad computer models.

They never should have used the London Imperial model. That’s the one that predicted two million US deaths. The problem is that this group has a HISTORY of bad predictions.

One mistake was predicted up to 150 million dead from bird flu.

Bird flu pandemic ‘could kill 150m’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke

The other was predicting 50,000 dead from mad cow disease while saying, “Be afraid of the sheep, too”.

BSE-infected sheep a ‘greater risk’ to humans
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mad-cow-sheep-in-britain/